December Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

  On 11/24/2024 at 6:47 PM, stormtracker said:

Just make it happen outside of the Dec 12-17th period.   I NEVER travel from Dec 15 to March 15, but I got hoodwinked into doing it this year with the thought that winter was gonna suck.   Still probably will, but of course December might be THE lit month. 

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We getting snow before the 12th.  

[CAPE]

  On 11/24/2024 at 6:43 PM, poolz1 said:

EPS continues the idea of bringing blocking back in over GL after D10. Massive west coast ridge with the bridge to GL intensifying through the end of the run. Pretty impressive look.

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If this is real we better get some snow. No weenie could draw it up any better.

[poolz1]

  On 11/24/2024 at 6:58 PM, CAPE said:

If this is real we better get some snow. No weenie could draw it up any better.

 

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Dec 12-15th seems like a good time for a major storm when this relaxes a bit!  

[frd]

  On 11/24/2024 at 6:58 PM, CAPE said:

If this is real we better get some snow. No weenie could draw it up any better.

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This image looks like the XXX weather model porn we had this past Jan., which was showing an historic cold and snow pattern for the East. 

Ironic, if this December delivers cold and snow when most had little hopes for this winter, let alone December which tyically is not our climo peak.

Time will tell.    

[WxUSAF]

  On 11/24/2024 at 6:34 PM, CAPE said:

Its 'there' on the GEFS and Euro ens mean too, but barely. Looks like most of the moisture gets wrung out over the western highlands, which is typical of a weak clipper. Snow in the air and maybe a whitening of the ground in the lowlands in early Dec is better than cold and dry.

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Not sure if something like a “decade trend” exists, but what few respectable storms we’ve had in the last 5 years have mostly been northern stream storms that moistened up in the 3-4 days before they hit. From range they all looked like weak sauce flurries. 

[WxUSAF]

  On 11/24/2024 at 6:58 PM, CAPE said:

If this is real we better get some snow. No weenie could draw it up any better.

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We want that trough axis to our west though, not over us. But that’s the type of thing that can happen with specific shortwaves rather than a longwave average. 

[CAPE]

  On 11/24/2024 at 7:34 PM, WxUSAF said:

We want that trough axis to our west though, not over us. But that’s the type of thing that can happen with specific shortwaves rather than a longwave average. 

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Exactly. That's a snapshot on a mean. The op runs depict a bunch of shortwave energy embedded in the flow over the western ridge/between it and the TPV. Strong shortwaves dropping southward will modify the the longwave trough.

[CAPE]

Talk about a mechanism for cross Polar flow lol.

Then an anticyclonic wave break sends a massive h5 avocado southward. Barney cold at the surface. Euro is feeding the weenies now that it extends beyond 240.

[Terpeast]

  On 11/24/2024 at 7:56 PM, CAPE said:

Talk about a mechanism for cross Polar flow lol.

Then an anticyclonic wave break sends a massive h5 avocado southward. Barney cold at the surface. Euro is feeding the weenies now that it extends beyond 240.

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That’s crazy cold!

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS weekly, cold and dry but we only need one widespread event to make most of us happy...

[BristowWx]

  On 11/24/2024 at 8:32 PM, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS weekly, cold and dry but we only need one widespread event to make most of us happy...

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We do well NOT capitalizing on a cold pattern around here.  We smoke a lot of cirrus. 

[Weather Will]

  On 11/24/2024 at 8:36 PM, BristowWx said:

We do well NOT capitalizing on a cold pattern around here.  We smoke a lot of cirrus. 

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Cold December is better than nothing...we should try to stay positive, especially with the prognosticators pessimism...who was calling for a cold December in October????  Anyone??? Lot of winter ahead of us.  

[BristowWx]

  On 11/24/2024 at 8:43 PM, Weather Will said:

Cold December is better than nothing...we should try to stay positive, especially with the prognosticators pessimism...who was calling for a cold December in October????  Anyone??? Lot of winter ahead of us.  

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Fair enough.  We need cold first.  Let’s see what happens. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

  On 11/24/2024 at 8:49 PM, BristowWx said:

Fair enough.  We need cold first.  Let’s see what happens. 

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Wave on the arctic front, December snow is good I like having that absolute minimum sun angle. 

[Benjamn3]

  On 11/24/2024 at 8:32 PM, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS weekly, cold and dry but we only need one widespread event to make most of us happy...

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Shit anymore I just need the cold to be happy. I’m a sick puppy that doesn’t mind cold and dry. Lol snow is just a bonus. 

[Daniel Boone]

  On 11/24/2024 at 8:32 PM, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS weekly, cold and dry but we only need one widespread event to make most of us happy...

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Of course, the precip avg is going to be less with a cold pattern . Above normal snow can result with below average precip as we all know.

[WxUSAF]

  On 11/24/2024 at 9:33 PM, Daniel Boone said:

 

Of course, the precip avg is going to be less with a cold pattern . Above normal snow can result with below average precip as we all know.

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Yes. FWIW (not much), JB tweeted the euro weekly snow map through Xmas. Looked like basically 3-6” for the general metro area. That’s probably slightly above normal for the first 3.5 weeks of December.

[psuhoffman]

  On 11/24/2024 at 9:37 PM, WxUSAF said:

Yes. FWIW (not much), JB tweeted the euro weekly snow map through Xmas. Looked like basically 3-6” for the general metro area. That’s probably slightly above normal for the first 3.5 weeks of December.

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Snowiest week is the second week of December 

 

[WxUSAF]

^7” for MBY through January 8. Again probably slightly above normal. 
 

but if snowiest week is second week of December, that’s an encouraging sign for how we’re viewing the pattern evolution. 

[clskinsfan]

GEFS keeps persistent West Coast ridging through its entire run. It would be nice to not have a hostile PAC for once. 

[stormy]

  On 11/24/2024 at 6:58 PM, CAPE said:

If this is real we better get some snow. No weenie could draw it up any better.

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I'd rather see that trough axis over Louisville instead of Philadelphia.

[CAPE]

  On 11/24/2024 at 10:51 PM, stormy said:

I'd rather see that trough axis over Louisville instead of Philadelphia.

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It's an h5 snapshot from an ensemble mean for a specific time on a single day. The longwave pattern phase isn't stationary.

[winter_warlock]

  On 11/24/2024 at 8:36 PM, BristowWx said:

We do well NOT capitalizing on a cold pattern around here.  We smoke a lot of cirrus. 

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December is looking like a f*ckin gift for us!! With this pattern. We should at least get 1 good widespread snow storm out of it!!

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS and EURO.  While it may be too warm to snow on Thanksgiving, still big differences in track/ how much rain.

[Terpeast]

  On 11/24/2024 at 11:49 PM, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS and EURO.  While it may be too warm to snow on Thanksgiving, still big differences in track/ how much rain.

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Except for the mountains, the qpf maps are almost the inverse of each other!

Good test for the models and seeing which ones to trust more when we track the real stuff. 

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 11/24/2024 at 7:34 PM, WxUSAF said:

We want that trough axis to our west though, not over us. But that’s the type of thing that can happen with specific shortwaves rather than a longwave average. 

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That's a Dec 26, 2010 setup. 

[Benjamn3]

To much excitement and happiness in this group lady’s and gents. I’ll throw some buzz words to keep away the evil. Torch. S.E Ridge. Dry slot. Underperform. Can kick…There that should do the trick. 

[Jebman]

  On 11/24/2024 at 6:58 PM, CAPE said:

If this is real we better get some snow. No weenie could draw it up any better.

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George BM could.

[Jebman]

  On 11/25/2024 at 12:19 AM, Benjamn3 said:

To much excitement and happiness in this group lady’s and gents. I’ll throw some buzz words to keep away the evil. Torch. S.E Ridge. Dry slot. Underperform. Lucy'd. Can kick…There that should do the trick. 

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Fixed

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 11/25/2024 at 12:19 AM, Benjamn3 said:

To much excitement and happiness in this group lady’s and gents. I’ll throw some buzz words to keep away the evil. Torch. S.E Ridge. Dry slot. Underperform. Can kick…There that should do the trick. 

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Let me add a phrase... "No cold high up north".