Terpeast Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Time for a December thread. GEFS/GEPS starting to show a potential coastal Dec 5-7 time frame with cold still hanging around. I should add that the canadian is more aggressive with the signal that time frame, the gefs or eps not so much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 GGEM has snow inbound at D10 with super-Barney (-30F and colder) moving into the northern Plains 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 1989 is not remembered fondly around here because we missed some big storms north and south. But there was some snow and it was damn cold. Could have been pretty epic with subtle changes. Let’s just hope we don’t get January-February 1990… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JVscotch Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 My gut says we don’t. 1988-1989 was a strong La’Niña vs last year’s El Niño. Last year didn’t get a chance to really do its magic but these shifts with the La’Nina to be closer to neutral, the anomalies beneath equatorial surface and the interesting MJO activity earlier, I think we are just getting started. I doubt wall-to-wall cold but the “best case scenario” that this winter had, even though was a lower percentage chance when starting the month, looks to be occurring hopefully. Will need to monitor the patterns and trends to see if cold keeps winning out and how some of these storms behave over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 1989 is not remembered fondly around here because we missed some big storms north and south. But there was some snow and it was damn cold. Could have been pretty epic with subtle changes. Let’s just hope we don’t get January-February 1990… I know this is really banter since it is not relevant to this forum but 1989 was the year we had a white Christmas Eve in Fayetteville, NC! I'm hoping for a repeat but without you guys getting shafted, and also minus the tropical Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 the timeframe around the 5th looks conducive for something bigger regionwide... anomalous 50/50, a decaying block over the Davis Strait, and persistent cross-polar flow. combine with an active STJ for split flow and there's a lot to like here 18 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Not seeing a discernable signal for a storm beyond late next week on the 0z ens guidance. There is plenty of broad NS vorticity embedded in the flow but a lack of sharp shortwaves as currently modeled. An amplified western US ridge with an axis further west would be more conducive for a sharper NS wave that can dig further south and involve some of the energy in the SW undercutting the ridge. That appears to be the best path to get surface low development early enough and further south for the first week of December, and what I will be watching for in upcoming model simulations. 0z Euro has the right idea and gets close in the 2nd-3rd timeframe but it doesnt come together soon enough and surface low development is a bit late/offshore. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 All 3 ensembles keep the PNA/EPO/WPO ridging going strong at D15. Cross polar flow the whole time. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just now, WxUSAF said: All 3 ensembles keep the PNA/EPO/WPO ridging going strong at D15. Cross polar flow the whole time. Yeah it looks cold, with reinforcing shots. Gotta have some legit cold for the lowlands to snow and in the current climate regime this is how we can get it. Hopefully this period won't just end up cold and dry with NS waves passing to our north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah it looks cold, with reinforcing shots. Gotta have some legit cold for the lowlands to snow and in the current climate regime this is how we can get it. Hopefully this period won't just end up cold and dry with NS waves passing to our north. Cold and dry is always a risk. But in early December we need some pretty anomalous cold to have a shot at widespread snow. Daily avg temp is still in the 40-43F range the first week of the month. If 1989 is a good analog to this upcoming period, there should be storms. Just hope we have better luck this time. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Maybe its just the GEFS (06z) playing follow the leader with the op? But it does have the two wave idea which could be a sneaky way to maximize the potential. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Can the November med/long range thread be locked? There's posts for the same storm threat being put in both Med/ long range threads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That western ridge is pretty pumped in the long range…esp on the EPS. Feel like the pattern is pretty ripe for a good setup on this look…hopefully the shortwaves cooperate FWIW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Since November is locked, rain chances and snow chances 6Z GEFS through Saturday 30th. Mostly wet east of the mountains, but I will be thankful for the rain, we need it! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Since November is locked, rain chances and snow chances 6Z GEFS through Saturday 30th. Mostly wet east of the mountains, but I will be thankful for the rain, we need it! Almost half of them get snow into the region or south of the region. I'll gladly take that a week out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 We gotta shove the track of the Thursday/Friday storm south, consensus is looking like a path that is unworkable for most of us beyond a thump for our very special favored friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We gotta shove the track of the Thursday/Friday storm south, consensus is looking like a path that is unworkable for most of us beyond a thump for our very special favored friends. Even if it was further south seems the cold is lacking for most of us. Plenty of cold after that passes…as expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Even if it was further south seems the cold is lacking for most of us. Plenty of cold after that passes…as expected. One may solve the other a little bit but yes, a lot needs to go right here. I know I was still sorta in yesterday but I’m feeling out this morning. All in on Dec. 5th still though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: One may solve the other a little bit but yes, a lot needs to go right here. I know I was still sorta in yesterday but I’m feeling out this morning. All in on Dec. 5th still though. Yes. Also, hoping northern NE S Canada and everywhere north of us gets solid snow cover. That can only help us later. Encouraging to see the cold pouring in…had my doubts earlier in the month that it would never get cold again. But here we are 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: One may solve the other a little bit but yes, a lot needs to go right here. I know I was still sorta in yesterday but I’m feeling out this morning. All in on Dec. 5th still though. Revenge of the fifth. Let's make it happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 06z AI Euro shows the path to a successful Thurs/Friday. Surface is still too warm, but with the 850s I imagine this is snow. Pretty identical to its 00z run too. Slightly better timing allowing accumulations to start overnight could = success 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Dangerous prognosticating from someone who doesn’t really know what he’s doing but I think the 12z EURO is gonna be a step in the right direction for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Dangerous prognosticating from someone who doesn’t really know what he’s doing but I think the 12z EURO is gonna be a step in the right direction for us. Does seem to be digging out west maybe a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Dangerous prognosticating from someone who doesn’t really know what he’s doing but I think the 12z EURO is gonna be a step in the right direction for us. Ignore me! Read more, post less. Thought it was looking more like its AI component for a second… WxBell was releasing partial info from later in the run. Didn’t turn out as hoped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Dangerous prognosticating from someone who doesn’t really know what he’s doing but I think the 12z EURO is gonna be a step in the right direction for us. The GFS and GEM are both backing off. Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 It was interesting until I looked. 12z even slashes the western mountains................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 It was interesting until I looked. 12z even slashes the western mountains...................I’ll wait for my AI darling to let us down before I let the fat lady sing. Spire also has a storm… AI revolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just one in many solutions, still a bit of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 9 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Just one in many solutions, still a bit of time We can hope for the two wave solution with the first becoming a transient 50/50 and the second one digs further south. Tall order for sure. That’s punching above our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Even if it was further south seems the cold is lacking for most of us. Plenty of cold after that passes…as expected. Yeah. The track is fine on the GFS. Just not cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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