Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[hawkeye_wx]

I'm getting a bit excited for good rain, and maybe some thunder, possibly followed by a burst of snow on the backside.

[Lightning]

52 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm getting a bit excited for good rain, and maybe some thunder, possibly followed by a burst of snow on the backside.

 It would be nice to have a real fun stormy period with a couple major storms systems.

[DocATL]

I mean I want Morch but GFS, I ain’t mad at ya either.

[Lightning]

2 minutes ago, DocATL said:

I mean I want Morch but GFS, I ain’t mad at ya either.

Morch was a disaster to many Orchards and other related industries causing problems for many people.  No thanks!

[DocATL]

Morch was a disaster to many Orchards and other related industries causing problems for many people.  No thanks!

Well maybe just warm and sunny days and cool nights then. Don’t want it to damage any crops!

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

Morch was a disaster to many Orchards and other related industries causing problems for many people.  No thanks!

I know they dont mean anything by it, but every year without fail (regardless of what kind of winter we have), the cool thing to do on this board is to hope for "Morch" and those of us who root on spring snowstorms are crazy. It makes legit zero sense to me why anyone would root on an agricultural disaster. Fortunately, nothing close to 2012 has happened since.

[Chambana]

38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know they dont mean anything by it, but every year without fail (regardless of what kind of winter we have), the cool thing to do on this board is to hope for "Morch" and those of us who root on spring snowstorms are crazy. It makes legit zero sense to me why anyone would root on an agricultural disaster. Fortunately, nothing close to 2012 has happened since.

still insane we lived to see 80s in the middle of March for days on end with upper 80s in many locations. Just freaking bananas. 

[Baum]

3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm getting a bit excited for good rain, and maybe some thunder, possibly followed by a burst of snow on the backside.

the remarks of a beaten man...like many here.

[Chicago Storm]

On 2/26/2025 at 8:16 AM, Maxim said:

Your thoughts on the long-term pattern? @Chicago Storm

Overall, between now and when we push into mid-month, it looks fairly up and down... or what you might consider a typical March.

Even though things may end up warmer than average as a whole, with what will be an active weather pattern and quality cold still being replenished in Canada, there most definitely will be some snow chances around...mainly north of I-70 and especially I-80.

[DocATL]

I know they dont mean anything by it, but every year without fail (regardless of what kind of winter we have), the cool thing to do on this board is to hope for "Morch" and those of us who root on spring snowstorms are crazy. It makes legit zero sense to me why anyone would root on an agricultural disaster. Fortunately, nothing close to 2012 has happened since.

I’m not rooting for an agricultural disaster, I’m just ok with warmer weather sooner. It’s been a cold stretch with or without snow so it’s nice to have this change.

I did not realize this was in reference to an actual event. A stretch of 80° temps in March would be bad.

Totally up for March snow too…last few GFS runs are interesting. I am good with no more long stretches of sustained cold.

[Chicago Storm]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know they dont mean anything by it, but every year without fail (regardless of what kind of winter we have), the cool thing to do on this board is to hope for "Morch" and those of us who root on spring snowstorms are crazy. It makes legit zero sense to me why anyone would root on an agricultural disaster. Fortunately, nothing close to 2012 has happened since.

My view is let people root for what they want. Everyone has their own wants.

No one rooting for anything is going to change what actually happens in reality.

[Maxim]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Of course there were ups and downs, there are almost every winter. But it was still a colder than avg winter. Had plenty of winter fun here in January/February despite the lack of big storms, so my issue is not getting a mid-March torch. My issue was how saying 10 days out is too far to worry about ptype to which your crystal ball told you I’ll be disappointed. Look Cromartie, youve been pretty well behaved as "Maxim", so kudos on that, but Im still going to call out BS when I see it. 

Never played in the NFL actually, tho I’m flattered

[Stevo6899]

Gfs doing weird things with the threat for the 6th.

All models seem to be developing a secondary but obviously those are very fluid and going to take a while before the models can pin it down.

[Maxim]

4 hours ago, DocATL said:

I mean I want Morch but GFS, I ain’t mad at ya either.

Now tell me what you think of the 18z run.

[Chicago Storm]

5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Gfs doing weird things with the threat for the 6th.

All models seem to be developing a secondary but obviously those are very fluid and going to take a while before the models can pin it down.

It actually has some similarities to the event of a few weeks ago (The Detroit fader).

[Stevo6899]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

It actually has some similarities to the event of a few weeks ago (The Detroit fader).

Lol what a shitturd that storm turned into. Would be nice to end this shit winter with an 8+ storm.

[Chicago Storm]

10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Lol what a shitturd that storm turned into. Would be nice to end this shit winter with an 8+ storm.

This one has similarities in regards to the main trough sweeping W-E across the CONUS, with it being similarly strung out and evolving as well. Also, there's a secondary wave diving in from the NW, which has some phasing potential.

The big thing that is different is that this time the TPV does not exist in S Canada.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

I’m not rooting for an agricultural disaster, I’m just ok with warmer weather sooner. It’s been a cold stretch with or without snow so it’s nice to have this change.

I did not realize this was in reference to an actual event. A stretch of 80° temps in March would be bad.

Totally up for March snow too…last few GFS runs are interesting. I am good with no more long stretches of sustained cold.

It references March 2012, an extraordinary warm spell that had widespread 70s and some 80s for several weeks which caused very early greenup and blooming which destroyed crops when April freezes hit. A less extreme version of this occurred in 1945 with the same result. Mild is one thing, but record warmth is bad for fruit growers because spring freezes are pretty much a guarantee.

[Stevo6899]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know they dont mean anything by it, but every year without fail (regardless of what kind of winter we have), the cool thing to do on this board is to hope for "Morch" and those of us who root on spring snowstorms are crazy. It makes legit zero sense to me why anyone would root on an agricultural disaster. Fortunately, nothing close to 2012 has happened since.

I love snow but once march comes along, I'm ready for warmth, selfishly record warmth, especially if it's been a shit winter. Regardless they will come up with some excuse as to why prices of fruit or anything else is so high so let's torch.

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I love snow but once march comes along, I'm ready for warmth, selfishly record warmth, especially if it's been a shit winter. Regardless they will come up with some excuse as to why prices of fruit or anything else is so high so let's torch.

Don’t worry. It’ll be warm in Florida. lol

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Don’t worry. It’ll be warm in Florida. lol

Unfortunately my time down here comes to end on march 1st every year. Looks like a Rollercoaster of temps next week up north.

[MidwestChaser]

Interesting GFS run so far.

[Maxim]

1 hour ago, MidwestChaser said:

Interesting GFS run so far.

Gets it down to 972 mb, not too shabby.

[A-L-E-K]

Lock it in 

[King James]

I know they dont mean anything by it, but every year without fail (regardless of what kind of winter we have), the cool thing to do on this board is to hope for "Morch" and those of us who root on spring snowstorms are crazy. It makes legit zero sense to me why anyone would root on an agricultural disaster. Fortunately, nothing close to 2012 has happened since.

No one has ill intent and it make all the sense In the world why people want warmth after a long winter.

Bring on Morch this year and every year thereafter

[A-L-E-K]

a 2" soaker would be so ideal

[hawkeye_wx]

There is still a lot of waffling north and south from run to run.  Parts of Iowa may get hit hard, or get little or nothing.

[Stebo]

15 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Overall, between now and when we push into mid-month, it looks fairly up and down... or what you might consider a typical March.

Even though things may end up warmer than average as a whole, with what will be an active weather pattern and quality cold still being replenished in Canada, there most definitely will be some snow chances around...mainly north of I-70 and especially I-80.

I agree with this assessment, I don't see a Morch coming either but we may have periodic warm spells that could push parts of the region into the 70s.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, King James said:

No one has ill intent and it make all the sense In the world why people want warmth after a long winter.

Bring on Morch this year and every year thereafter

To each their own. I'll root on snow and cold thru April every year. As was said earlier, we can root for whatever we want, but mother nature has the final say.

[Cary67]

A little SE shift and MLI snow futility could be in jeopardy.lol