IWXwx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 At least Canada is cashing in, FWIW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 13 minutes ago, IWXwx said: At least Canada is cashing in, FWIW I'll take it. That's where our cold comes from 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said: I'll take it. That's where our cold comes from Yep. Been a lot of late Nov's that looked much worse for our winter ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 11 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said: I'll take it. That's where our cold comes from Exactly! We get Canada good and we don't need to count on a cross polar flow or crazy blocking to get cold enough weather for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 eps remain v ugly and p far away from a wintery look imo gets worse from there obv 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Eric Webb's X feed (@webberweather) has been an interesting, good read lately. He's confident that this winter will have much more frequent -EPO episodes. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: eps remain v ugly and p far away from a wintery look imo gets worse from there obv Yeah if you live in Dallas or Seattle. The more south and west you are in the sub, the more risk you're going to have of having some very mild days mixed in with cold ones. Maybe Chicago will be too far SW to get any of the clipper snows but on the other hand you need to be close to the mild air to get the good clipper snows so it's hard to say right now. If you're only goal is to get a major Gulf of Mexico moisture laden monster storm, the yes, this is an awful pattern. If you just want to experience some winter cold and clippers in December for a change and get the ground/lakes frozen then it doesn't look bad at all. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 I've seen more snow on the ground already this season than I typically do before January. Basically consider November a true fall month and December a transition month. So as long as we can get some shit rocking in January, count me in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 @A-L-E-K You do be spitting facts for sure but if there's an event later at least maybe the lake won't sabotage it for you no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 The clipper train in December? Wow I'm shocked 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 I think the mets at IWX are anxious to leave for Thanksgiving... this might be the shortest AFD I've seen considering there's plenty to talk about. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake effect snow showers with accumulations up to 1-2" possible for Berrien and Cass counties late Thursday through Friday. - Unseasonably cold through mid next week. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s with lows in the teens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 Modified arctic airmass will spread south across the Great Lakes in wake of low amplitude disturbance ejecting through the OH valley tonight/Thu. A few snow showers possible northwest Thu morning before giving way to lake banding Thu night into Fri morning as low level lake thermal trough intensifies. However expected dry entrainment along wrn/srn flank of Lake Michigan will curtail development and doubt much more than an inch of snow possible north of the MI/IN stateline. Otherwise brief window does exist toward daybreak Thu for some snow to mix in south of US24 within departing rain shield. Relatively warm sfc temps and rainfall overnight here will preclude any snow accumulation. Remainder of the period will be quite cold and dry beneath dominant upper low taking shape near James Bay. Temp anomalies Fri-Tue will run 10-15 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 A shortwave and attendant sfc low over the Central Plains will track east through KY tonight. A blossoming precip shield along a leading elevated baroclinic zone is expected to barely clip KFWA this evening into the early overnight on the far northern fringe of this system. Ptype at KFWA looks to be primarily liquid, though a brief mix or changeover to wet snow cannot be completely ruled out by mid-late evening. Opted to drop KFWA into MVFR during this time, with better chances for IFR cigs/vis just south of the terminal into tonight. No impact at KSBN otherwise with light winds through the period. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27 Author Share Posted November 27 2 hours ago, roardog said: Yeah if you live in Dallas or Seattle. The more south and west you are in the sub, the more risk you're going to have of having some very mild days mixed in with cold ones. Maybe Chicago will be too far SW to get any of the clipper snows but on the other hand you need to be close to the mild air to get the good clipper snows so it's hard to say right now. If you're only goal is to get a major Gulf of Mexico moisture laden monster storm, the yes, this is an awful pattern. If you just want to experience some winter cold and clippers in December for a change and get the ground/lakes frozen then it doesn't look bad at all. Agree 100%. I do expect some clippers in the coming weeks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 47 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: I think the mets at IWX are anxious to leave for Thanksgiving... this might be the shortest AFD I've seen considering there's plenty to talk about. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake effect snow showers with accumulations up to 1-2" possible for Berrien and Cass counties late Thursday through Friday. - Unseasonably cold through mid next week. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s with lows in the teens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 Modified arctic airmass will spread south across the Great Lakes in wake of low amplitude disturbance ejecting through the OH valley tonight/Thu. A few snow showers possible northwest Thu morning before giving way to lake banding Thu night into Fri morning as low level lake thermal trough intensifies. However expected dry entrainment along wrn/srn flank of Lake Michigan will curtail development and doubt much more than an inch of snow possible north of the MI/IN stateline. Otherwise brief window does exist toward daybreak Thu for some snow to mix in south of US24 within departing rain shield. Relatively warm sfc temps and rainfall overnight here will preclude any snow accumulation. Remainder of the period will be quite cold and dry beneath dominant upper low taking shape near James Bay. Temp anomalies Fri-Tue will run 10-15 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 A shortwave and attendant sfc low over the Central Plains will track east through KY tonight. A blossoming precip shield along a leading elevated baroclinic zone is expected to barely clip KFWA this evening into the early overnight on the far northern fringe of this system. Ptype at KFWA looks to be primarily liquid, though a brief mix or changeover to wet snow cannot be completely ruled out by mid-late evening. Opted to drop KFWA into MVFR during this time, with better chances for IFR cigs/vis just south of the terminal into tonight. No impact at KSBN otherwise with light winds through the period. && Todd Holsten. A very good met. I’ve done tornado surveys with him. But his discussions are always short. I’ve seen three sentence discos. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Looks like clipper train may be most impactful in ne half of sub. Those of us in the southwest half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 It's going to be okay. We're due. Enjoy your Thanksgiving. Be Thankful for what you have. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Looks like the high 500mb heights and warm 850mb temperatures in Russia and the Bering Sea are bumping the upper level features to be cold in North America. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Extended remains bad Shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 BAM. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1862114711757639953 wanted to beat Spartman to it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Clippers next week remain just a little too far north for most of us. I can't even get the winds to get NW enough to get lake effect bands into Indiana. Hopefully we can get a something to sneak further south. GFS has a nice storm in fantasy range though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 At least the cold northwest flow will bring mood flakes to those fortunate to be downwind of the GL. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Clippers next week remain just a little too far north for most of us. I can't even get the winds to get NW enough to get lake effect bands into Indiana. Hopefully we can get a something to sneak further south. GFS has a nice storm in fantasy range thoughYeah, relying on a phase is precarious this far out. Hopefully though!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 On 11/26/2024 at 7:02 PM, IWXwx said: At least Canada is cashing in, FWIW Low of -27F tonight feeling like -42 with a high of -20F tomorrow in Regina, SK. Bone chilling cold and quite the pattern reversal from the record breaking warm start to Nov. https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index.html?coords=50.450,-104.617 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: At least the cold northwest flow will bring mood flakes to those fortunate to be downwind of the GL. Excited for my occasional 5 minute burst of heavy flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 1 hour ago, DocATL said: Yeah, relying on a phase is precarious this far out. Hopefully though! . Relying on a phase 36 hours out is precarious 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 5 hours ago, cyclone77 said: At least the cold northwest flow will bring mood flakes to those fortunate to be downwind of the GL. Let the mood setting event commence.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Relying on a phase 36 hours out is precariousYet somehow a forecast 200 hours out of cold and dry seems rock solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Zzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Zzzzzz 111 days until spring... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Zzzzzz It's November and it's cold! Adderall anyone?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 The clipper next Wednesday could be decent from WI down to MI/OH. Looks like that's the only clipper we have to work with in this northwest flow regime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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