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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion


michsnowfreak
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11 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said:

I'll take it. That's where our cold comes from

Exactly!  We get Canada good and we don't need to count on a cross polar flow or crazy blocking to get cold enough weather for snow.  

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5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

eps remain v ugly and p far away from a wintery look imo 

image.thumb.png.77dc1acf21ed2b385c255d6cba8369b5.png

gets worse from there obv

Yeah if you live in Dallas or Seattle. The more south and west you are in the sub, the more risk you're going to have of having some very mild days mixed in with cold ones. Maybe Chicago will be too far SW to get any of the clipper snows but on the other hand you need to be close to the mild air to get the good clipper snows so it's hard to say right now. If you're only goal is to get a major Gulf of Mexico  moisture laden monster storm, the yes, this is an awful pattern. If you just want to experience some winter cold and clippers in December for a change and get the ground/lakes frozen then it doesn't look bad at all. 

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I think the mets at IWX are anxious to leave for Thanksgiving... this might be the shortest AFD I've seen considering there's plenty to talk about.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers with accumulations up to 1-2"
  possible for Berrien and Cass counties late Thursday through
  Friday.

- Unseasonably cold through mid next week. Highs in the upper
  20s to low 30s with lows in the teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024

Modified arctic airmass will spread south across the Great Lakes in
wake of low amplitude disturbance ejecting through the OH valley
tonight/Thu. A few snow showers possible northwest Thu morning
before giving way to lake banding Thu night into Fri morning as low
level lake thermal trough intensifies. However expected dry
entrainment along wrn/srn flank of Lake Michigan will curtail
development and doubt much more than an inch of snow possible north
of the MI/IN stateline. Otherwise brief window does exist toward
daybreak Thu for some snow to mix in south of US24 within departing
rain shield. Relatively warm sfc temps and rainfall overnight here
will preclude any snow accumulation.

Remainder of the period will be quite cold and dry beneath dominant
upper low taking shape near James Bay. Temp anomalies Fri-Tue will
run 10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024

A shortwave and attendant sfc low over the Central Plains will
track east through KY tonight. A blossoming precip shield along
a leading elevated baroclinic zone is expected to barely clip
KFWA this evening into the early overnight on the far northern
fringe of this system. Ptype at KFWA looks to be primarily
liquid, though a brief mix or changeover to wet snow cannot be
completely ruled out by mid-late evening. Opted to drop KFWA
into MVFR during this time, with better chances for IFR cigs/vis
just south of the terminal into tonight. No impact at KSBN
otherwise with light winds through the period.

&&
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2 hours ago, roardog said:

Yeah if you live in Dallas or Seattle. The more south and west you are in the sub, the more risk you're going to have of having some very mild days mixed in with cold ones. Maybe Chicago will be too far SW to get any of the clipper snows but on the other hand you need to be close to the mild air to get the good clipper snows so it's hard to say right now. If you're only goal is to get a major Gulf of Mexico  moisture laden monster storm, the yes, this is an awful pattern. If you just want to experience some winter cold and clippers in December for a change and get the ground/lakes frozen then it doesn't look bad at all. 

Agree 100%. I do expect some clippers in the coming weeks as well.

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47 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

I think the mets at IWX are anxious to leave for Thanksgiving... this might be the shortest AFD I've seen considering there's plenty to talk about.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers with accumulations up to 1-2"
  possible for Berrien and Cass counties late Thursday through
  Friday.

- Unseasonably cold through mid next week. Highs in the upper
  20s to low 30s with lows in the teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024

Modified arctic airmass will spread south across the Great Lakes in
wake of low amplitude disturbance ejecting through the OH valley
tonight/Thu. A few snow showers possible northwest Thu morning
before giving way to lake banding Thu night into Fri morning as low
level lake thermal trough intensifies. However expected dry
entrainment along wrn/srn flank of Lake Michigan will curtail
development and doubt much more than an inch of snow possible north
of the MI/IN stateline. Otherwise brief window does exist toward
daybreak Thu for some snow to mix in south of US24 within departing
rain shield. Relatively warm sfc temps and rainfall overnight here
will preclude any snow accumulation.

Remainder of the period will be quite cold and dry beneath dominant
upper low taking shape near James Bay. Temp anomalies Fri-Tue will
run 10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024

A shortwave and attendant sfc low over the Central Plains will
track east through KY tonight. A blossoming precip shield along
a leading elevated baroclinic zone is expected to barely clip
KFWA this evening into the early overnight on the far northern
fringe of this system. Ptype at KFWA looks to be primarily
liquid, though a brief mix or changeover to wet snow cannot be
completely ruled out by mid-late evening. Opted to drop KFWA
into MVFR during this time, with better chances for IFR cigs/vis
just south of the terminal into tonight. No impact at KSBN
otherwise with light winds through the period.

&&

Todd Holsten. A very good met. I’ve done tornado surveys with him. But his discussions are always short. I’ve seen three sentence discos.

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Clippers next week remain just a little too far north for most of us. I can't even get the winds to get NW enough to get lake effect bands into Indiana. Hopefully we can get a something to sneak further south. GFS has a nice storm in fantasy range though

image.png.06150ef0ebce260422e4bf7335dba83a.png

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Clippers next week remain just a little too far north for most of us. I can't even get the winds to get NW enough to get lake effect bands into Indiana. Hopefully we can get a something to sneak further south. GFS has a nice storm in fantasy range though
image.png.06150ef0ebce260422e4bf7335dba83a.png

Yeah, relying on a phase is precarious this far out. Hopefully though!


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