Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Powerball]

lol beavis...

[DocATL]

Anyways…the Euro looks nice.


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[beavis1729]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

First of all. Observations were very reliable. If anything they were more detailed than we get today. Everything was manual, now snow is the only thing manual (outside of necessary fixes to the wx observing equipment). The mid century time frame was one of the worst for snowstorms here. We did have a few good ice storms. And second of all. You love to use the coldest normals in Chicago's entire climate record as your norm, but yet it's not fair for us to acknowledge how good the last few decades have been for snowstorms?

I don't understand why you keep arguing about this - we're on the same side.  Can't you admit that our climo is horrible, if you're a person (like yourself) who likes snow...and especially snow cover?  Just because it has been relatively better in recent decades, doesn't mean it's good.  Why is this so difficult for people to grasp?  Every winter in Miami gets an F; it's the same concept.  In my mind, the last 10 winters have been horrible, because there have been way too many thaws.  Doesn't mean that snowfall itself has been horrible, but as everyone knows that's only one aspect to winter.

2013-14 and 2014-15 were the last good winters, and all I keep hearing about is how great they were and that we should never ever complain again...and how we should just be content with the current winter that hasn't had more than a 1" depth all season.  Those good winters were 10 years ago...are we going to keep falling back on the nostalgia of them forever and ever? 

[beavis1729]

37 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

guy…

you really need to get over it. our climo is what it is. you can’t just come up with this idea that it should be magically better just because you want it to be. as many of us have said, you live in the wrong place for what you’re looking for.

either you can’t quite grasp the reality of things or you’re one of the best trolls we’ve seen.

Ha ha...I wish this were true.

[mnchaserguy]

I don't understand why you keep arguing about this - we're on the same side.  Can't you admit that our climo is horrible, if you're a person (like yourself) who likes snow...and especially snow cover?  Just because it has been relatively better in recent decades, doesn't mean it's good.  Why is this so difficult for people to grasp?  Every winter in Miami gets an F; it's the same concept.  In my mind, the last 10 winters have been horrible, because there have been way too many thaws.  Doesn't mean that snowfall itself has been horrible, but as everyone knows that's only one aspect to winter.
2013-14 and 2014-15 were the last good winters, and all I keep hearing about is how great they were and that we should never ever complain again...and how we should just be content with the current winter that hasn't had more than a 1" depth all season.  Those good winters were 10 years ago...are we going to keep falling back on the nostalgia of them forever and ever? 

You’re complaining about things that no one can control. Saying “how can you be content” is dumb because there is nothing anyone can do to change that. It’s understandable to be frustrated but to be incessantly complaining about it is annoying. It’s almost like you’re taking it personally.


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[Harry Perry]

 

22 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I don't understand why you keep arguing about this - we're on the same side.  Can't you admit that our climo is horrible, if you're a person (like yourself) who likes snow...and especially snow cover?  Just because it has been relatively better in recent decades, doesn't mean it's good.  Why is this so difficult for people to grasp?  Every winter in Miami gets an F; it's the same concept.  In my mind, the last 10 winters have been horrible, because there have been way too many thaws.  Doesn't mean that snowfall itself has been horrible, but as everyone knows that's only one aspect to winter.

2013-14 and 2014-15 were the last good winters, and all I keep hearing about is how great they were and that we should never ever complain again...and how we should just be content with the current winter that hasn't had more than a 1" depth all season.  Those good winters were 10 years ago...are we going to keep falling back on the nostalgia of them forever and ever? 

Emotions are just running high due to the lack of better quality winter weather and it’s hard to read people on here because they’re all about facts and less about being personable. 
 

It’s been a shitty winter with no end in sight. Good reason to kick the ball and talk about it IMO. 

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

The last 6"+ storm at Detroit was March 3, 2023. (the largest storm last winter was 4.7", and the largest this year to date has been 3.7").

The historical average is just over 1 storm per winter of 6"+.

However, there have been obviously many years where we dont see one, particularly in the middle third of the 20th century.

The most 6"+ storms in a single winter was 6 in 2013-14.

The most consecutive winters withOUT a 6"+ storm was 6, from 1944-45 thru 1949-50.

The most consecutive winters with at least one 6"+ storm was 14, from 1890-91 thru 1903-04

The decade with the least 6"+ storms on record was the 1940s, when just one storm of 6"+ fell

The decade with the most 6"+ storms on record was the 2010s, when 19 storms saw 6"+

Despite not having a 6"+ storm since March 3, 2023, we have already seen 6 in the 2020s.

Thanks for the reply and info. I had no idea we went all last winter without one. That stat of going 6+ winters without one is depressing and shows things could be alot worse and we definitely have been spoiled recently/puts things into perspective. 

While I wish we could get bigger storms in our area, that's just not our climo. It doesnt make our climo suck, its just the way it is and no sense in getting all upset over it. Easier said than done though when you see big dogs hit other areas but that's the luck of the weather. If we can score one 8+ storm this winter, I'll be happy. I am guilty of having way too high of expectations regarding our climo.

 

[DocATL]

I was in Miami in January…it was an A+.

[Lightning]

1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

I don't understand why you keep arguing about this - we're on the same side.  Can't you admit that our climo is horrible, if you're a person (like yourself) who likes snow...and especially snow cover?  Just because it has been relatively better in recent decades, doesn't mean it's good.  Why is this so difficult for people to grasp?  Every winter in Miami gets an F; it's the same concept.  In my mind, the last 10 winters have been horrible, because there have been way too many thaws.  Doesn't mean that snowfall itself has been horrible, but as everyone knows that's only one aspect to winter.

2013-14 and 2014-15 were the last good winters, and all I keep hearing about is how great they were and that we should never ever complain again...and how we should just be content with the current winter that hasn't had more than a 1" depth all season.  Those good winters were 10 years ago...are we going to keep falling back on the nostalgia of them forever and ever? 

This is just some thought and not directed toward you.  Just something I think might be impacting this conversation.  Part of the issue: "2013-14 and 2014-15 were the last good winters."   This might be very true for some areas (I don't know as I don't live everywhere  ).

But where I live this is not true.  Yes 2023-24 was HORRIBLE.  2017-18 was Flint's snowiest winter.   There have been several awesome events in the past 10 years around this area.

My point being that everyone perspective is different based on your location and the events your location is getting. 

I recall a few years ago I was getting 2.5" of rain in a thunderous crashing thunderstorm.  Just 10 miles away it was sunny and not a drop.   Depending on your location can make all the difference in the world to your perspective of the weather!!

In the end right now for me this winter is not wonderful but it also has not been that bad.  But I will absolutely agree it has been horrible in your area and I know it has been for a few years now.

[Radtechwxman]

We need a good snowstorm before there's an uprising in here

[ILSNOW]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

currently riding the ICON (heard it's good now)

Alek ICON still hot.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

I don't understand why you keep arguing about this - we're on the same side.  Can't you admit that our climo is horrible, if you're a person (like yourself) who likes snow...and especially snow cover?  Just because it has been relatively better in recent decades, doesn't mean it's good.  Why is this so difficult for people to grasp?  Every winter in Miami gets an F; it's the same concept.  In my mind, the last 10 winters have been horrible, because there have been way too many thaws.  Doesn't mean that snowfall itself has been horrible, but as everyone knows that's only one aspect to winter.

2013-14 and 2014-15 were the last good winters, and all I keep hearing about is how great they were and that we should never ever complain again...and how we should just be content with the current winter that hasn't had more than a 1" depth all season.  Those good winters were 10 years ago...are we going to keep falling back on the nostalgia of them forever and ever? 

We are on the same page in that we both love winter. We are not on the same page in expecting a climatology that has never existed. 

2013-14 wasn't just a good winter. It was an extraordinary, historic, epic winter here. Funny thing about 2014-15 is that snowfall overall wasn't impressive but the cold and snowdepth was. In fact. The snow depth was so impressive that it placed winter in #2 of your SDD category (2013-14 blew away #1 and it wasn't even close). Since then we have had some good winters (2017-18, 2020-21) and some great individual months and storms, though the historic streak of 2007-15 certainly has ended. But all winters since 2015 have certainly not been horrible here.

Last but not least. It's been a very unlucky winter in Chicago. There's been plentiful cold but it's been so dry. I dont expect you to like it but theres nothing you can do about the weather. While it's been lackluster in Detroit too, we've had a more beavis-tolerant winter. Snow was on the ground most of January. 

[A-L-E-K]

47 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Alek ICON still hot.

Event on 13th looks like it's not a mirage, not a major but it's a start 

[DocATL]

Event on 13th looks like it's not a mirage, not a major but it's a start 

Got to proceed with caution until the afternoon of the 12th.

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 minute ago, DocATL said:

Got to proceed with caution until the afternoon of the 12th.

Proceed with caution until the snow is on the ground…

[Malacka11]

On 2/1/2025 at 12:31 PM, Malacka11 said:

My bday is the 11th. I will reel one in.

 

[mimillman]

We’ll have a look at this 12z Sunday 

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, Radtechwxman said:

We need a good snowstorm before there's an uprising in here

About what it's like watching the models fade away storm after storm.

[Radtechwxman]

26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

About what it's like watching the models fade away storm after storm.

18z euro would make you happy. But I'm not believing anything because south trend hasn't been denied this winter. Gfs is more subdued but still has accumulating snow for a lot of us. 

[DocATL]

 

Mine is the 16th


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[Malacka11]

13 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Mine is the 16th


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My mom's is the 17th and she's as big of a snow freakazoid as all of us nerds so next weekend's system better deliver 

[Chicago Storm]

On 2/6/2025 at 3:58 PM, ILSNOW said:

Could you please expand on your thoughts for the upcoming pattern

I'll try to push something out here soon. Busy-busy-busy these days.

In general, this period, which has already kicked off, will be the most active stretch of the winter. Words of wisdom would be to watch the period around Feb 12th next week. That's the best looking setup for a 'dawg' that we've seen all winter in this region. (Yes, I know that the early January needle/threader was a dog in the far southern portion of the sub-forum, but that was not a blatantly obvious slam dunk look).

[RogueWaves]

14 hours ago, dmc76 said:

BAM always comparing a pattern change to some historical pattern. 

RIght. Like their earlier ref to a similar pattern to 13-14. Have to allow for a possible back-loaded winter as we shake off Nino dust, and hopefully get just enough Nina-esque treatment. My new locale has had better winters to this point, its been so-so tbh but most of NMI already has a decent snowpack going into this stretch and I have an outside chance at 7" this weekend. Even 3-4 would be huge here for this season. I went out of Wayne county on a high note (3/3/23) and I'm glad to have a chance to get buried more often like last January's 18" depth. Only time will tell if BAM's just another hype outlet. Gotta let it play out. My regret is I never made it North in Feb of '85 when those incredible depths happened (Kalkaska with 68"). I was content with a 12" depth and riding my snow machines in 3 to 4 foot drifts where I lived at the time in Genesee Cnty. Hopefully a LOT more of us that have suffered poor winters for several years running get into some much better snows.

[TheClimateChanger]

Here is another good way to view the recent snow drought in Chicago. We can see the 24-month period ending January 31st was the least snowy 24 months since the 24-month period ending March 30, 1938! The exact ranking on this metric isn't super important, since these are not independent values - that is, any month will share 23 of the 24 months with the preceding and following month. And during the warm season, the values are static, since a month with no snow simply replaces a month with no snow two years earlier. 

[ILSNOW]

0z GFS

[sbnwx85]

3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

0z GFS

The powerhouse we’ve been waiting for. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Models are steadily beefing up the mid next week system, lifting it farther north.

Yeah, these beefier systems are still out there several days and details will change, but up until a couple days ago the deterministic Euro was still spitting out plenty of goose-egg 15-day snow maps.  This is what it is showing now through 8 days... quite the change.

[Radtechwxman]

31 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are steadily beefing up the mid next week system, lifting it farther north.

Yeah, these beefier systems are still out there several days and details will change, but up until a couple days ago the deterministic Euro was still spitting out plenty of goose egg 15-day snow maps.  This is what it is showing now through 8 days... quite the change.

Would be par for the course to get missed north after misses south all winter. Hoping I can get something out of this active pattern. 

[Jackstraw]

8 hours ago, Radtechwxman said:

Would be par for the course to get missed north after misses south all winter. Hoping I can get something out of this active pattern. 

Thats the problem with this pattern we're now in (as opposed to the pre- January arctic blast). I mean it's a decent setup for the entire sub with storm tracks but if one winds up it's gonna pump "hot 850's" right over the top of us and we get the gambit of everything but most of our moisture will drop as liquid (more frozen mud )  while those to the north cash in with a 12+ incher or if it's a fizzled piece-o-crap it slides south and spits some in KY that'll melt the next day or 2. I know the Chicago weenies are frothing at the mouth (when aren't they lol) and want 2 feet 25 miles north or south of Chitown lol but I'll take a a couple decent 6 or 7 back to back that spreads the wealth any day. I'm not totally buying into this track yet and think there's a decent chance, at least snow totals, could swing back south some 50 to 75 miles.  

But such is the Climo for our locations 

[Lightning]

11 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are steadily beefing up the mid next week system, lifting it farther north.

Yeah, these beefier systems are still out there several days and details will change, but up until a couple days ago the deterministic Euro was still spitting out plenty of goose-egg 15-day snow maps.  This is what it is showing now through 8 days... quite the change.

GFS today has joined the party