Chicago Storm Posted Thursday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:26 PM We're sliding into probably one of the more complex large scale weather patterns that we've seen in quite a while. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM 30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: We're sliding into probably one of the more complex large scale weather patterns that we've seen in quite a while. Could you please expand on your thoughts for the upcoming pattern 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted Thursday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:44 PM Could you please expand on your thoughts for the upcoming patternPreferably a long form video with graphics. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted Thursday at 11:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:04 PM BAMwx says a mix of Feb 1985 and Feb 2021. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted Friday at 12:14 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:14 AM 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: We're sliding into probably one of the more complex large scale weather patterns that we've seen in quite a while. It definitely looks like the groundhog was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Friday at 01:54 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:54 AM 2 hours ago, madwx said: BAMwx says a mix of Feb 1985 and Feb 2021. Stay tuned! Wow aiming high haha. Both months were cold. Feb 1985 had 16.9" of snow with a peak depth of 12" and Feb 2021 had 21.4" with a peak depth of 14". Actually 2020-21 had some fun times. An underrated winter imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted Friday at 02:31 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:31 AM 3 hours ago, madwx said: BAMwx says a mix of Feb 1985 and Feb 2021. Stay tuned! BAMwx based out of Indy. From his discussion I would be excited over the next few weeks if I was in the OV from Indy SE right up into New England. Later talks about vortex dump of cold air near the 25th. Madison to Chicago area sounds like CAD watch in effect again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted Friday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:32 AM 5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: How much snow do you have on the ground? We had freezing rain. Our ground is frozen solid, but only piles of snow remain. The snowpack melted off the last day of January, and though we had some snow sunday it melted Monday. 2-3" of glacier haha. Hoping to add another 1-4" this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted Friday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:46 AM 3 hours ago, madwx said: BAMwx says a mix of Feb 1985 and Feb 2021. Stay tuned! Generally take the inverse of what they say. Usually works out quite well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Friday at 02:52 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:52 AM 25 minutes ago, Cary67 said: BAMwx based out of Indy. From his discussion I would be excited over the next few weeks if I was in the OV from Indy SE right up into New England. Later talks about vortex dump of cold air near the 25th. Madison to Chicago area sounds like CAD watch in effect again. "Their time is over. Our time is now."- Kurt Russel :" Miracle" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted Friday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:13 AM 4 hours ago, madwx said: BAMwx says a mix of Feb 1985 and Feb 2021. Stay tuned! This result would certainly be akin to that month for my region! 10:1 not fluffed-up Depth: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted Friday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:10 AM Gfs somehow has bullseye 6 over detroit for the weekend.... definitly gonna be a nowcast event it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted Friday at 04:17 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:17 AM 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Gfs somehow has bullseye 6 over detroit for the weekend.... definitly gonna be a nowcast event it seems. 6.7” on the weenie map but realistically 3” (until 06z when it disappears). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Friday at 11:19 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:19 AM 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted Friday at 11:32 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:32 AM 8 hours ago, RogueWaves said: This result would certainly be akin to that month for my region! 10:1 not fluffed-up Depth: BAM always comparing a pattern change to some historical pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted Friday at 11:33 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:33 AM 9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Wow aiming high haha. Both months were cold. Feb 1985 had 16.9" of snow with a peak depth of 12" and Feb 2021 had 21.4" with a peak depth of 14". Actually 2020-21 had some fun times. An underrated winter imo U can start that snow depth with the 0.6” of snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Friday at 12:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:49 PM The latest GEFS and EPS are both their best runs of the entire winter. A 6+" average over the entire region is pretty solid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted Friday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:07 PM 17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The latest GEFS and EPS are both their best runs of the entire winter. A 6+" average over the entire region is pretty solid. That’s showing some 12” or more around me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted Friday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:30 PM 2 hours ago, dmc76 said: BAM always comparing a pattern change to some historical pattern. As do most of those who do these social media posts. Considering that is basically the main thing most weather geeks want (i.e. historic events), they are just appealing to the majority of their audience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Friday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:55 PM currently riding the ICON (heard it's good now) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted Friday at 04:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:11 PM Well those of us in I70 Kitchen Sink Land will be nervously hopeful over the next 10 days. With this forecast setup of a sharp baroclinic zone from the SW to the NE US with the battle ground here centered somewhere between the Ohio River and I70 is like playing a casino snow slot machine for us. Hopefully after tonight we can stay in the cold conveyor. I'm already sick of the mud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Friday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:12 PM Are we like so back again right now or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted Friday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:49 PM This weekends storm cracks me up, Detroit in between precip areas with zzzz. Not that it's an impressive storm but had chance at being decent. It's pretty hard to go a whole winter without a 6 inch event. When's the last time that happened Josh? We gotta be close to having it happen the latest in the winter, mid feb at the earliest this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 PM 18 hours ago, madwx said: BAMwx says a mix of Feb 1985 and Feb 2021. Stay tuned! Update: they haven't posted a video today so not sure if they've considered adding 1899 as an analogue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Friday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:49 PM 12z gefs most hyped for a mid range event as they've been in a long time 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted Friday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:53 PM Hold…hold…hooooold… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Friday at 06:08 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:08 PM 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: This weekends storm cracks me up, Detroit in between precip areas with zzzz. Not that it's an impressive storm but had chance at being decent. It's pretty hard to go a whole winter without a 6 inch event. When's the last time that happened Josh? We gotta be close to having it happen the latest in the winter, mid feb at the earliest this winter.. The last 6"+ storm at Detroit was March 3, 2023. (the largest storm last winter was 4.7", and the largest this year to date has been 3.7"). The historical average is just over 1 storm per winter of 6"+. However, there have been obviously many years where we dont see one, particularly in the middle third of the 20th century. The most 6"+ storms in a single winter was 6 in 2013-14. The most consecutive winters withOUT a 6"+ storm was 6, from 1944-45 thru 1949-50. The most consecutive winters with at least one 6"+ storm was 14, from 1890-91 thru 1903-04 The decade with the least 6"+ storms on record was the 1940s, when just one storm of 6"+ fell The decade with the most 6"+ storms on record was the 2010s, when 19 storms saw 6"+ Despite not having a 6"+ storm since March 3, 2023, we have already seen 6 in the 2020s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted Friday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:41 PM 33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The most consecutive winters withOUT a 6"+ storm was 6, from 1944-45 thru 1949-50. The most consecutive winters with at least one 6"+ storm was 14, from 1890-91 thru 1903-04 The decade with the least 6"+ storms on record was the 1940s, when just one storm of 6"+ fell The decade with the most 6"+ storms on record was the 2010s, when 19 storms saw 6"+ Despite not having a 6"+ storm since March 3, 2023, we have already seen 6 in the 2020s. I have to believe that the observations back then weren't very reliable. How could Detroit only have one 6"+ storm over a 10-year period? If that's actually correct, all it does is illustrate (yet again) how horrible our winter climo is. It shouldn't make any of us think "oh, we've been lucky in recent decades"; it's just not a reasonable reaction/response. If a student scores 20% on an exam after getting a 0% on a previous one, the 20% score is still an F. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted Friday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:57 PM I have to believe that the observations back then weren't very reliable. How could Detroit only have one 6"+ storm over a 10-year period? If that's actually correct, all it does is illustrate (yet again) how horrible our winter climo is. It shouldn't make any of us think "oh, we've been lucky in recent decades"; it's just not a reasonable reaction/response. If a student scores 20% on an exam after getting a 0% on a previous one, the 20% score is still an F.guy…you really need to get over it. our climo is what it is. you can’t just come up with this idea that it should be magically better just because you want it to be. as many of us have said, you live in the wrong place for what you’re looking for.either you can’t quite grasp the reality of things or you’re one of the best trolls we’ve seen. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Friday at 07:22 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:22 PM 30 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: I have to believe that the observations back then weren't very reliable. How could Detroit only have one 6"+ storm over a 10-year period? If that's actually correct, all it does is illustrate (yet again) how horrible our winter climo is. It shouldn't make any of us think "oh, we've been lucky in recent decades"; it's just not a reasonable reaction/response. If a student scores 20% on an exam after getting a 0% on a previous one, the 20% score is still an F. First of all. Observations were very reliable. If anything they were more detailed than we get today. Everything was manual, now snow is the only thing manual (outside of necessary fixes to the wx observing equipment). The mid century time frame was one of the worst for snowstorms here. We did have a few good ice storms. And second of all. You love to use the coldest normals in Chicago's entire climate record as your norm, but yet it's not fair for us to acknowledge how good the last few decades have been for snowstorms? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now