Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WestMichigan]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

a rough op run for sure but i think the re-emergence of western atlantic/east coast ridging is gonna happen

idk about snow obv but we're all tired of the north dakota climo 

As long as Lake Michigan stays open for business I am fine with the cold at least until I get my utility bill.  The constant 1-3" daily with occasional bumps as a SW passes through has been pretty nice.  Not so much for anyone else though.

[WestMichigan]

Euro seems to think it is going to get cold again to start February. 

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Euro seems to think it is going to get cold again to start February. 

It also has a more active pattern, which is more important. Dont get me wrong, I love cold and snowcover (even tho its a big mangy, its better than bare ground) but the zzzs need to stop lol.

[Frog Town]

Yeah,  I don't think this cold pattern is changing anytime soon.  Maybe a relaxing of the pattern, which is what we all want for better snow chances, but not a big a warm up.  Thinking mid to end of February for that.  But even then I bet it's a slow warm up with a lot of ice chances.  

[Malacka11]

Has there been a single run yet this entire season where the GFS in Euro actually depicted roughly the same evolution for a storm at more than 200 hours out?

[buckeye]

37 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Yeah,  I don't think this cold pattern is changing anytime soon.  Maybe a relaxing of the pattern, which is what we all want for better snow chances, but not a big a warm up.  Thinking mid to end of February for that.  But even then I bet it's a slow warm up with a lot of ice chances.  

I mean anything is possible, (snowball fights on Bourbon Street for example), but I find it hard to believe we end up with a wall to wall cold January followed by the same for February.  I mean we'd be talking about winters of yore.     Models always seem to get stuck when a pattern persists...like trying to turnaround an aircraft carrier.     I think once the warmth, (or at least milder), pattern actually starts arriving we'll start seeing the fantasy cold shots fading.     But I agree the transition will bring some decent storm chances for the sub, probably transitioning to rain for us but better snow chances especially further west.   The PNA is still impressively stubborn as hell but trying to break below neutral and the mjo is skirting the warm phases thru the COD as we get into the first week of Feb. 

[buckeye]

40 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Has there been a single run yet this entire season where the GFS in Euro actually depicted roughly the same evolution for a storm at more than 200 hours out?

NO

[A-L-E-K]

35 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Has there been a single run yet this entire season where the GFS in Euro actually depicted roughly the same evolution for a storm at more than 200 hours out?

Unfavorable pattern plus lots of persistent cutoff which occasionally time their way into fantasy range mirages

[DocATL]

Has there been a single run yet this entire season where the GFS in Euro actually depicted roughly the same evolution for a storm at more than 200 hours out?

I literally said this to myself. Remarkable. You can’t bake a cake without ingredients so maybe we have ingredients.


.

[hawkeye_wx]

This morning's EPS is the first decent-looking run in a long time.  In the 10-15 day range, it has a western trough, with snow-producing waves getting ejected into the midwest.

[Malacka11]

57 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Unfavorable pattern plus lots of persistent cutoff which occasionally time their way into fantasy range mirages

Alright idk if I've misled but did you see 12z today?

[A-L-E-K]

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Alright idk if I'm misled but did you see 12z today?

Imo that cutoff is a long shot but I think the period after will be the end of miss south days for us for a while, fingers crossed

Lots of zzzz to go no matter how u slice it

[Chicago Storm]

ya'll are focusing on op guidance wayyy to much.

ENS have had issues, but they're always the way to go more than a few days out.

[Malacka11]

Believe me gang I've learned that lesson. Just found it funky fresh that two separate models actually depict something similar at that range, because even with long range OP guidance being what it is, I don't remember that happening yet this season strictly from a statistical standpoint (even if it means nothing)

[Chicago Storm]

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Believe me gang I've learned that lesson. Just found it funky fresh that two separate models actually depict something similar at that range, because even with long range OP guidance being what it is, I don't remember that happening yet this season strictly from a statistical standpoint (even if it means nothing)

we need a triple phaser for ya.