DocATL Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 12z GFS and Euro deploy the SnowShield over Chicago Metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 what's the 18Z NAM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 what's the 18Z NAM show?A flurry. One. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 Euro weeklies look good. Weeks 1-3 colder than avg, weeks 4-6 near avg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 38 minutes ago, DocATL said: A flurry. One. baby steps.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Euro weeklies look good. Weeks 1-3 colder than avg, weeks 4-6 near avg.Average puts us in a better position for substantial snowfall 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Sat clipper looks weak and way south now. May be waiting a few to several weeks for MLI/DVN's first accumulating snowfall unless we can get a surprise ripple or clipper to pop up in the flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Sat clipper looks weak and way south now. May be waiting a few to several weeks for MLI/DVN's first accumulating snowfall unless we can get a surprise ripple or clipper to pop up in the flow. if the cold establishes as advertised that's most likely a worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 29 minutes ago, Baum said: if the cold establishes as advertised that's most likely a worst case scenario. I was overly optimistic a few days ago so now I'm gonna go to the other extreme lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Sat clipper looks weak and way south now. May be waiting a few to several weeks for MLI/DVN's first accumulating snowfall unless we can get a surprise ripple or clipper to pop up in the flow.Probably 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Once again the GFS schools the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Prolonged cad, bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Prolonged cad, bummer Obviously an overreaction but that's my winter nightmare. Cold,dry, suppressed. If it ain't gonna snow, let's torch. Useless cold pisses me off lol. Twc posted an interesting article on weak la Nina's and how the Upper Midwest usually does good in those. In recent years, great lakes region has done well during weak Nina's but as always there are other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 eps about as bad as it gets, punting a month of prime winter is never ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Prolonged cad, bummer Almost seamless transition from wad to cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Those outside of the lake belt can ignore this you’re if sad about no snow… lake effect set up looks good especially Friday and Sunday into Monday morning. WNW winds will favor Michigan more on Friday. Sunday could be a bigger day for northern Indiana with a more NW flow and even colder air blowing down the lake. Also noting, although outside the subforum, this should be a major lake effect event for upstate New York. Winter Storm Watches are already up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 9 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Almost seamless transition from wad to cad been lush and green here lakeside but yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Excited to have cold end of Nov. into early Dec. Hopefully Lake Michigan provides some decent LES starting Friday into next week. Beyond that MJO is currently beginning to go into 4-5-6. Those are not cold phases especially as you get into the heart of December!! What is worse is the models are starting to shows it dragging and possibly stalling in 5. Blast on through those phases and it would be fine but stalling / dragging through them . If the MJO doesn't change or another signal take over then mild will return mid-month December. I am excited for the next couple weeks and believe there should get some snows out this even though the Thanksgiving storm has gone south on us. Hopefully the actual MJO will not follow the models well and move quicker toward Phase 7 or dive into COD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Establish the cold. The snow will come. Pessimism on Thanksgiving doesn't play. So keep your MJO and JMO's and SST's and weak La Nina signals and analogs. Be thankful for this sick hobby that has afflicted you. 1 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Once again the GFS schools the euroGFS has been a steady hand. A little insult to injury with a little rain to close out the run. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 baum trying too hard to remain positive, gonna be burnt out by january 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: baum trying too hard to remain positive, gonna be burnt out by january While we may not get much snow, yet. It's nice to see a pattern that can sustain cold, especially early. The past 4 years it's been a roller coaster whiplash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 uggo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Understood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Canadian giving way to the GFS is so Canadian. Most energy to the north or to the south but not a ton of QPF. Those of you in lake effect areas are going to be tired of snow soon. Good call on that a few weeks ago [mention=276]michsnowfreak[/mention] ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 I would much rather cold than warm. At least when it's cold you can still get 2-4 inch events instead of winter rain... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Here's the set we need come mid December! Big'ol banana high to the north. This would be a crusher! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26 Author Share Posted November 26 Not sure if it's been mentioned, but both the Euro and it's ensembles come out a bit earlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: eps about as bad as it gets, punting a month of prime winter is never ideal late november and december have not been consistent "prime winter" in more than a decade. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26 Author Share Posted November 26 7 hours ago, Lightning said: Excited to have cold end of Nov. into early Dec. Hopefully Lake Michigan provides some decent LES starting Friday into next week. Beyond that MJO is currently beginning to go into 4-5-6. Those are not cold phases especially as you get into the heart of December!! What is worse is the models are starting to shows it dragging and possibly stalling in 5. Blast on through those phases and it would be fine but stalling / dragging through them . If the MJO doesn't change or another signal take over then mild will return mid-month December. I am excited for the next couple weeks and believe there should get some snows out this even though the Thanksgiving storm has gone south on us. Hopefully the actual MJO will not follow the models well and move quicker toward Phase 7 or dive into COD. No mild weather as far as the ensembles or weeklies can see...but obviously we know how the models are lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now