Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[outflow]

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzz

Brŕrrr

[A-L-E-K]

extended doesn't even look super cold, just boring

[WestMichigan]

30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended doesn't even look super cold, just boring

Continues the theme of the summer/fall. The same reason most of our sub was at some level of drought. Just can’t get anything to come this way on a regular basis. 

[A-L-E-K]

On 12/27/2024 at 6:48 AM, A-L-E-K said:

The coming east coast pattern is gonna be rough

confirmed

[Stevo6899]

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

confirmed

We may be the last ones to see a substantial snowstorm. Hopefully it'll be worth the wait. South had theirs with ohio valley, east coast next. I believe msp had a 6 incher in december? 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

We may be the last ones to see a substantial snowstorm. Hopefully it'll be worth the wait. South had theirs with ohio valley, east coast next. I believe msp had a 6 incher in december? 

5.5” from a juiced Clipper on December 19th. Pennies outside of that. Can’t get a system to come our way this winter. Only have to go to hour 330 on the GFS for substantial precipitation in my region.

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

We may be the last ones to see a substantial snowstorm. Hopefully it'll be worth the wait. South had theirs with ohio valley, east coast next. I believe msp had a 6 incher in december? 

Hope you are ready for your early may snowstorm

[Stevo6899]

59 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Hope you are ready for your early may snowstorm

Yea that would totally make sense. Come mid march I'm ready for warmer weather. I feel like our best chance for a big dog is in march when we gotta thread the needle and more moisture available.

[A-L-E-K]

ymmv i guess, big dog climo about to start crashing p quick here actually

[Malacka11]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

confirmed

I think I'd rather suffer like we have been than endure three storms back to back missing somehow, which seems to be the plan over there as of now

[Snowstorms]

34 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea that would totally make sense. Come mid march I'm ready for warmer weather. I feel like our best chance for a big dog is in march when we gotta thread the needle and more moisture available.

La Nina needs to La Nina for us to start scoring. The pattern so far hasn't been that of a typical Nina. 

[buckeye]

On 1/14/2025 at 9:33 PM, michsnowfreak said:

From the NE forum. Not sure how it translates west of MI.

remember when January was supposed to be warm?

[Snowstorms]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I hope west of MI gets some snow soon. It's been snowing here nearly every day and while we won't be getting anything big, it's nice to have snowpack for the deepfreeze. The east coast snow drought has definitely been worse than here. They've set records for longest periods without so many inches of snow in Boston, new york city, etc. It's not been a good winter so far for big storms outside of a few instances, so hopefully the more active look after this week pans out for many.

I've appreciated the consistent snow days. It's definitely made it feel like winter. While disappointing to see everyone getting a chance to score, our time will come. 

Need to move that big ridge across the PNW towards the Aleutians and Alaska for the SE ridge to flex a little bit and help create a gradient. Our best and biggest storms come from patterns like that. EPS has been hinting at that near the end of January, but it keeps getting pushed back.

[buckeye]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended doesn't even look super cold, just boring

yea, the early week plunge is still very cold but the models have backed off of the stupid stuff.  (edit: ggem still showing -28 in central OH ).   I think we start seeing overall moderation in LR, with models backing off of the non-stop arctic plunges out of Canada.   For snowlovers, especially in your neck of the woods that's probably a good thing anyways, better chance of lows cutting further west or on top of us.   

[buckeye]

Just now, Snowstorms said:

I've appreciated the consistent snow days. It's definitely made it feel like winter. While disappointing to see everyone getting a chance to score, our time will come. 

Need to move that big ridge across the PNW towards the Aleutians and Alaska for the SE ridge to flex a little bit and help create a gradient. Our best and biggest storms come from patterns like that. EPS has been hinting at that near the end of January, but it keeps getting pushed back.

have to admit, we've had a snowcover now for quite awhile.    Unusual in these parts.   See how much rain we get Saturday and then if anything squally develops Sunday ahead of the next plunge.

[A-L-E-K]

been a while since we've had a eurythmics fantasy storm

[Stevo6899]

38 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

La Nina needs to La Nina for us to start scoring. The pattern so far hasn't been that of a typical Nina. 

True. Usually weak Nina's are good for us but as always enso isn't the end all be all for patterns. Thats why I roll my eyes when someone posts the precip/temp maps for the upcoming weeks as they are just created based on enso alone it seems. So many things gotta come together outside of (nao/pna/ao) for a favorable pattern for certain parts of this sub. The end of the gfs run looks promising pattern wise. It's been cloudy the past 3 days here in SW Florida with that looking to continue for another 5-7 days. Pretty rare this time of year as it's usually sunny and only cloudy when a front rolls through. Gotta get outta this suppression and move that baroclinic zone back north. 

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I've appreciated the consistent snow days. It's definitely made it feel like winter. While disappointing to see everyone getting a chance to score, our time will come. 

Need to move that big ridge across the PNW towards the Aleutians and Alaska for the SE ridge to flex a little bit and help create a gradient. Our best and biggest storms come from patterns like that. EPS has been hinting at that near the end of January, but it keeps getting pushed back.

Agree. I've always said it and the last many years have magnified it. I'll take our climate any day over the east. Way too feast or famine there. It's been nice to have the daily snow. Certainly have to think the pattern will change as shown. While it likely won't allow everyone to score big, it will certainly bring more winter storms to the region. 

[DocATL]

Mixed bag on the GFS. Good to see Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin get a good snow. Also into northwestern Illinois. They’ve been nickel and dimed or had almost nothing at all. Historic period as we will potentially see 5+ inches along the eastern seaboard from South Georgia to Canada. Very cool. I’d expect Ohio valley to get in on the action again though this run missed them. Here in Chicago maybe some mood flakes for now.


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[DocATL]

Agree. I've always said it and the last many years have magnified it. I'll take our climate any day over the east. Way too feast or famine there. It's been nice to have the daily snow. Certainly have to think the pattern will change as shown. While it likely won't allow everyone to score big, it will certainly bring more winter storms to the region. 

Yeah I hope we can catch a clipper or a changeover event over these next two weeks but I’ll just be happy otherwise with moderating temps.


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[Cary67]

5 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

We may be the last ones to see a substantial snowstorm. Hopefully it'll be worth the wait. South had theirs with ohio valley, east coast next. I believe msp had a 6 incher in december? 

As Eastwood says in Unforgiven," Deserving's got nothing to do with it." We will get a snowstorm at some point but it may not be this winter.

[DocATL]

As Eastwood says in Unforgiven," Deserving's got nothing to do with it." We will get a snowstorm at some point but it may not be this winter.

Hard to see us not cashing in late Feb or early March.


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[A-L-E-K]

can tell you are new to the region

[Maxim]

8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended doesn't even look super cold, just boring

Actually looks slightly above average once we get past the MJO driven cold blast (possibly more active as well).

[DocATL]

can tell you are new to the region

Man…so no shot at a late winter snow?? Could have sworn I saw it happen many years from afar and here I thought this was my chance to experience it after an underwhelming season thus far. Well…hope we torch then.


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[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Man…so no shot at a late winter snow?? Could have sworn I saw it happen many years from afar and here I thought this was my chance to experience it after an underwhelming season thus far. Well…hope we torch then.


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lol of course theres a shot at a late winter snow. Your area can literally get snowstorms into April. But theres absolutely nothing in mid-January that is going to shed any light on whether or not you get a big storm the remainder of this winter.

[DocATL]

lol of course theres a shot at a late winter snow. Your area can literally get snowstorms into April. But theres absolutely nothing in mid-January that is going to shed any light on whether or not you get a big storm the remainder of this winter.

April…yikes. Definitely want a torch by then.


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[sbnwx85]

Those 4" snows in April that melt by mid-afternoon just hit different.

[madwx]

58 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Those 4" snows in April that melt by mid-afternoon just hit different.

Like a punch to the stomach