Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

There’s a difference between a winter that’s been too warm to keep a snowpack and one that’s not. Yes, it’s been a dry winter all over the Midwest. Northern Wisconsin might not have much snow cover right now but at least it’s been cold enough to freeze up the lakes for activities like ice fishing which is still a big part of the economy in those areas. That’s the big difference between this winter and last winter. Snow cover in non lake effect areas will always be hit and miss. 2 years ago Minnesota was getting buried with snow and had plenty of cold too so not everywhere had a “bad” winter 2 years ago. 

Right, I hear you...but that assumes you have a snowpack to begin with.  Considering it's mid-January, way too much of the Midwest doesn't (southern half of MN and southern 3/4 of WI, for starters).

 

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Right, I hear you...but that assumes you have a snowpack to begin with.  Considering it's mid-January, way too much of the Midwest doesn't (southern half of MN and southern 3/4 of WI, for starters).

 

It sucks big time for those areas. But this is absolutely the risk a cold/dry/suppressed pattern produces. It has happened many times in the past. FWIW I have no doubt that areas of MN that have bare ground and dont even rise above zero next week will get a 10" wet snowstorm in mid-April.

[DocATL]

I know is an Op run out in la la land but I’m praying for this GFS 18z run to be true. 50’s and rain on January 31st


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[roardog]

43 minutes ago, DocATL said:

I know is an Op run out in la la land but I’m praying for this GFS 18z run to be true. 50’s and rain on January 31st


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You’ve been complaining about a lack of snow so you want the temp in the 50s so there’s literally no chance of snow? lol

[DocATL]

You’ve been complaining about a lack of snow so you want the temp in the 50s so there’s literally no chance of snow? lol

I mean…if we are going to be dealing with northwest flow and frigid temps without snow the next 2 weeks, 50’s is an absolute welcome sight by comparison. It’s a massive improvement. Also it’s a good reset before a hopefully better pattern.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

I know is an Op run out in la la land but I’m praying for this GFS 18z run to be true. 50’s and rain on January 31st


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Maybe you'll get lucky. The 384 hour op GFS has an impeccable record.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no doubt that areas of MN that have bare ground and dont even rise above zero next week will get a 10" wet snowstorm in mid-April.

All of us here know it’s coming too. 

Although snowfall has been paltry this winter locally there has been plenty of seasonable cold. The twin cities have held a 1-2” snow depth since last Thursday. 

[Snowstorms]

12 hours ago, roardog said:

I think the lack of extreme cold this month has been more about this airmass being of Canadian origin instead of originating in Siberia. That’s about to change with the airmass coming this weekend into the beginning of next week. That has the potential to produce some legit extreme cold.

Canada has been cold. It was -50 a week ago in the Yukon and in the -40's this morning in Nunavut. The problem has been the warm lakes after experiencing 2 consecutive blowtorched winters and lack of sea ice across the Hudson. I think this is the latest Hudson Bay has gone without freezing over. But I agree, we will see some of the coldest air since 2019 across the region next week. 

I believe one of the reasons Siberia is colder than Northern Canada is the lack of land mass across Northern Canada vs one giant country on the other side of the pole. The vast open ocean and lack of any huge land mass limits how cold Canada can get. That helps drive the Siberian high. 

But the lowest temperature ever recorded in Canada was -81.4, not to far from Siberia's lowest of -89.9. 

[DocATL]

Maybe you'll get lucky. The 384 hour op GFS has an impeccable record.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. It seems to sniff out these southern crushers with total impunity.


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[HillsdaleMIWeather]

An actually busy GFS run

It's a miracle 

[Frog Town]

Really makes sense with the pattern. 

[A-L-E-K]

don't look at the euro

 

[Cary67]

Donut hole qpf for N.IL, Iowa, and Southern Wisconsin stuck on auto pilot for the Euro

[buckeye]

I get to the end of all these model runs....360hrs out...expecting to see the beginning of the collapse of the cold, (especially looking at where the indices are headed), and yet the cold just keeps reloading in Canada.

[Floydbuster]

20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I get to the end of all these model runs....360hrs out...expecting to see the beginning of the collapse of the cold, (especially looking at where the indices are headed), and yet the cold just keeps reloading in Canada.

It differs back and forth. There is a nice little warmup around two weeks from now, and the earlier GFS runs today showed much more mild by first week of February compared to what we have been seeing.

[Frog Town]

15 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

It differs back and forth. There is a nice little warmup around two weeks from now, and the earlier GFS runs today showed much more mild by first week of February compared to what we have been seeing.

Big pattern drivers say no warm-up.  Kind of need to ignore the models unless 3 days out for precip. 

[sbnwx85]

[sbnwx85]

The lake-effect impact early next week along the Lake Michigan shoreline in Michigan should be significant. There are some mitigating factors that will impact flake size but there should still be major visibility issues and blizzard-like conditions Monday into Tuesday. Some areas should get a foot. The winds should be north/northwest enough on Sunday to bring some snow into my neck of the woods... but this will especially be a Michigan event as the winds turn west.

[buckeye]

57 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Big pattern drivers say no warm-up.  Kind of need to ignore the models unless 3 days out for precip. 

but they don't really say cold either (at least after the next week and a half).   Most interesting one to me is the PNA showing it might actually go negative for the first time since beginning of December.  Clearly that's been a huge driver of what we've been experiencing.

[roardog]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

don't look at the euro

 

Yeah, the EPS kind of squashes the WAR and just wants to keep us frigid. 

[A-L-E-K]

patterns stay stuck, just the way it goes now

[DocATL]

patterns stay stuck, just the way it goes now

Amen. Just 5+ inches at I-10 and I-75 in NW Florida. Should make the Des Moines folks giddy. I’d guess we pop a SER later than sooner and hope a cold rain trends colder.


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[Chicago Storm]

I've been really hesitant to talk about the upcoming potential pattern change.

For one, the can has been getting kicked down the road as to when when it will occur. But also, when it does occur, there like three different directions it may go.

[Malacka11]

38 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I've been really hesitant to talk about the upcoming potential pattern change.

For one, the can has been getting kicked down the road as to when when it will occur. But also, when it does occur, there like three different directions it may go.

Are two and a half of them shit?

[DocATL]

I think this suppressed look will pop a Miller A. Boston and NYC have been pretty snow starved.

Even if the can gets kicked a while, I still think Iowa and Minnesota will finally get a big dog.

[Snowstorms]

7 minutes ago, DocATL said:

I think this suppressed look will pop a Miller A. Boston and NYC have been pretty snow starved.

Even if the can gets kicked a while, I still think Iowa and Minnesota will finally get a big dog.

So have most of the Great Lakes region. Some of us have 1-3" our way to 10"+ but weak clippers or lake effect snow don't count. But for those that haven't even experienced that, I truly feel for y'all. 

[michsnowfreak]

58 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

So have most of the Great Lakes region. Some of us have 1-3" our way to 10"+ but weak clippers or lake effect snow don't count. But for those that haven't even experienced that, I truly feel for y'all. 

I hope west of MI gets some snow soon. It's been snowing here nearly every day and while we won't be getting anything big, it's nice to have snowpack for the deepfreeze. The east coast snow drought has definitely been worse than here. They've set records for longest periods without so many inches of snow in Boston, new york city, etc. It's not been a good winter so far for big storms outside of a few instances, so hopefully the more active look after this week pans out for many.

[DocATL]

So have most of the Great Lakes region. Some of us have 1-3" our way to 10"+ but weak clippers or lake effect snow don't count. But for those that haven't even experienced that, I truly feel for y'all. 

Yeah it’s definitely sucked. We’ve been fortunate to have some “mood inches” in Southwest Chicago burbs but feel for north and northwest of the city as well as parts of Ohio. Probably other spots I’m missing. I’m not sure when things get better for us.


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[WestMichigan]

Ain't no way this is happening.

[DocATL]

Ain't no way this is happening.

Snow means on ensembles aren’t too shabby for Western Michigan!


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