Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[cyclone77]

Another miss south coming Friday, and then the wussy Sunday clipper looks to mostly miss northeast.  

Hopefully something meaningful pops up for around the 20th.  There's been some hints there could be something in that time period.

[Cary67]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a rinse and repeat scenario like December.  The eastern trough lifts out at some point in the last third of January. Allows for milder air and a warm cutter that MSP and upper Midwest cash in on snow wise. Trough digs back in in the same position for February and we ride NW flow again to effectively lock in another sub 30" seasonal total.

[buckeye]

In about 10 days we should see a +nao +ao  -pna and the mjo ready to tour the warm phases.   

#torch-tracking 

#forch 

#2012

[A-L-E-K]

i'm ready for spring

[A-L-E-K]

51 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a rinse and repeat scenario like December.  The eastern trough lifts out at some point in the last third of January. Allows for milder air and a warm cutter that MSP and upper Midwest cash in on snow wise. Trough digs back in in the same position for February and we ride NW flow again to effectively lock in another sub 30" seasonal total.

too real

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

i'm ready for spring

Yep, looking like at least February for a chance of any meaningful snow 

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yep, looking like at least February for a chance of any meaningful snow 

as long as it's cold, there will be outside chances but yeah, another clunker looking likely

[Frog Town]

January 20th -the 30th is our best chance of good Winter weather Forum Wide, then we go the way of the MJO....which seems torchy at this point.  

[sbnwx85]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

January 20th -the 30th is our best chance of good Winter weather Forum Wide, then we go the way of the MJO....which seems torchy at this point.  

Yeah… this will be our annual two weeks of winter.

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

I thought you didn't like snow or is this just a case of you liking to rub it in some people's faces?

I never understand the competition aspect of things, especially when areas that get way less snow than I do cash in. Its in a weather weenies blood i guess, but why would I worry about what someone else is getting? Do I worry about their weather when Im getting snow? No. 

[michsnowfreak]

17 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Yeah… this will be our annual two weeks of winter.

This line always cracks me up too. I mean, it was kind of true last year, but no other year have I seen it like that. Cold and dry is still winter. Milder wet heavy snowstorms are still winter. At least IMO. It may not be the perfect winter, but its still winter.

[DocATL]

I never understand the competition aspect of things, especially when areas that get way less snow than I do cash in. Its in a weather weenies blood i guess, but why would I worry about what someone else is getting? Do I worry about their weather when Im getting snow? No. 

Agree! As a former southerner I’m happy when they get to cash in. Happy to see midwestern neighbors get meaningful snow. Except LES folks. I hate them. Sorry, I’ll die on that sword.

It is frustrating to see the same thing happening over and over on models for us though, hence why this sub is full of whiny weenies (myself included).

[sbnwx85]

48 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This line always cracks me up too. I mean, it was kind of true last year, but no other year have I seen it like that. Cold and dry is still winter. Milder wet heavy snowstorms are still winter. At least IMO. It may not be the perfect winter, but its still winter.

Cold is just “ter”. Add snow and that’s a win. Thusly, that’s when you get “winter”. I think it’s Latin or something.

[A-L-E-K]

clipper hype watch 

[DocATL]

clipper hype watch 

I’ve got some Sherwin Williams Snowbound in eggshell I’ll throw up onto a wall. Pull up a chair. I’ll throw in a dull spoon with which to gouge out your eyes after.

On the bright side we do have the ICON and the Canadian throwing us a bone.

[Malacka11]

Personally I get the vibe that we in N IL need to stop being so pessimistic right about now because like Alek says, the clippers are coming, and like Cyclone said, there's a lurking sign for something around the 18th through the 20th. Yea yea obviously it can all go to shit and ensembles this ensembles that, but like guys just shelf the pessimism for a few days and let's turn into real assholes if it doesn't pan out and/or things go straight back to shit afterwards for February (which some might consider a W at that point, again like others have said).

 

I'm not even saying that the upcoming stretch is in any way more remarkable than the ones that have mostly not materialized or not produced so far this year (y'all know I'm not qualified to make that judgement), but ffs at this point this board is depressing me more than my actual life is. And ofc shit weather is shit weather, don't polish turds etc. etc., but just stfu for three days and if it still looks like ass then we can be sad again. Deal?

[DocATL]

Personally I get the vibe that we in N IL need to stop being so pessimistic right about now because like Alek says, the clippers are coming, and like Cyclone said, there's a lurking sign for something around the 18th through the 20th. Yea yea obviously it can all go to shit and ensembles this ensembles that, but like guys just shelf the pessimism for a few days and let's turn into real assholes if it doesn't pan out and/or things go straight back to shit afterwards for February (which some might consider a W at that point, again like others have said).
 
I'm not even saying that the upcoming stretch is in any way more remarkable than the ones that have mostly not materialized or not produced so far this year (y'all know I'm not qualified to make that judgement), but ffs at this point this board is depressing me more than my actual life is. And ofc shit weather is shit weather, don't polish turds etc. etc., but just stfu for three days and if it still looks like ass then we can be sad again. Deal?

.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

This line always cracks me up too. I mean, it was kind of true last year, but no other year have I seen it like that. Cold and dry is still winter. Milder wet heavy snowstorms are still winter. At least IMO. It may not be the perfect winter, but its still winter.

I know not everyone lives in a lake effect snow belt but when you see the lake effect areas getting buried in December, that means it’s a cold, wintry pattern everywhere around our area. There was ice fishing going on around here in December. That hasn’t been happening in very many Decembers the last 10 years. I know I’ve had a little more snow so far than many in this sub but this winter has at least felt like winter and not an extended November. 

[mimillman]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

clipper hype watch 

Maybe we can stack them up and get to El Paso’s YTD snow total If we’re lucky 

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Maybe we can stack them up and get to El Paso’s YTD snow total If we’re lucky 

memphis winter

[mimillman]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

memphis winter

If only 

[DocATL]

Alright break it up break it up…three day moratorium.


.

[Malacka11]

2 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Alright break it up break it up…three day moratorium.


.

Now that I got my vent out, idc what happens with this Friday system as long as it doesn't end up being another balloon knot-puckeringly close miss, which certainly seems a strong possibility.

[DocATL]

Now that I got my vent out, idc what happens with this Friday system as long as it doesn't end up being another balloon knot-puckeringly close miss, which certainly seems a strong possibility.

Yes much prefer a further trend east and south


.

[Chicago Storm]

pull it together, ya'll.

you'll survive, it's just snow.

[mimillman]

This ya just have to laugh at

[A-L-E-K]

any hope still in fantasy range

rough going

[iBrian]

19 hours ago, mimillman said:

If only 

buddy in Nashville just sent me this.  sigh.

[A-L-E-K]

double digits or bust

[SchaumburgStormer]

If we are not going warning criteria, go for futility.