Malacka11 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 18z OP GFS wasn't all the way there yet but the ensemble looks better again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Feels like a non starter imo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Feels like a non starter imoYeah unfortunately the GFS op puts us in the suppression shredder. But hey at least it’s cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 6 minutes ago, DocATL said: Yeah unfortunately the GFS op puts us in the suppression shredder. But hey at least it’s cold book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Just sad at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Just sad at this pointYeah…Canadian goes with a dry suppressed look too. If Euro follows suit, we punt. Gonna waste the cold this time around unless we can catch a clipper or two. Luckily it’s just the beginning of the season.Ensemble means are better for NYC than Chicago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 5 hours ago, mannynyc said: Just sad at this point if you're sad in November. Quit now. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 LOT tosses a bone, and laughs at the model worshipers: " POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE REGION FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO THANKSGIVING DAY PERIOD APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. " been a few years since there was a trackable event potential around the Thanksgiving holiday and real cold to follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 European pats GFS on the head and puts forward a more sensible solution the morning, keeping things quite active. Lots of quick hitter clippers. Honestly I like that better than a crippling wallop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 No precipitation signal on the GFS, but my ski hill will be running the snow guns 24/7 and mud season will come to an end. Cold and suppressed is better then ridging and wet for midwest skiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Remember with the system this past week when the GFS trended towards the Euro bombing out over Detroit which continued trending west over towards Wisconsin. Just wait for it. This will become a northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin crusher soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Remember with the system this past week when the GFS trended towards the Euro bombing out over Detroit which continued trending west over towards Wisconsin. Just wait for it. This will become a northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin crusher soon enough. GFS northwest trend is the surest thing in this world.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Ok, Ok, I know it's the 84 hour Nam, but if you extrapolate it out a bit, I think it's further North with the low this week for Turkey day. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 I’m going guess the NAM still stinks 12z GFS at least shows some possible frontogenisis snow showers Wednesday but keeps the Thanksgiving low well south. It tries to bring a weakening clipper through the area Saturday… clippers can surprise though so it bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 After a nice/brief trend yesterday things have trended back towards a non-event for the central/western sub for the Wed system. Next thing to track may be a clipper next weekend, but not looking too impressive. Hope we don't waste this cold stretch and then have to sit out 2-4 weeks of warmth in the heart of December like usual. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 3 hours ago, Frog Town said: Ok, Ok, I know it's the 84 hour Nam, but if you extrapolate it out a bit, I think it's further North with the low this week for Turkey day. Thoughts? I'm starting to get rather confident in a 1-3" for Toledo at this time for Thanksgiving. Still wouldn't be shocked to see the hardest snows head more towards I-94 as we get closer to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, nwohweather said: I'm starting to get rather confident in a 1-3" for Toledo at this time for Thanksgiving. Still wouldn't be shocked to see the hardest snows head more towards I-94 as we get closer to the event I would agree fellow Toledo'n. Although I'm just a skirt north of you in Sylvania. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24 Author Share Posted November 24 Looks like a LES/Clipper pattern will be setting up shop for a while. Always run the risk of cold and dry but a reminder- clipper patterns are probably THE most unpredictable patterns outside of a several day lead time. Modeled clippers can vanish and others pop out of nowhere. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 it was a good run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Looks like a LES/Clipper pattern will be setting up shop for a while. Always run the risk of cold and dry but a reminder- clipper patterns are probably THE most unpredictable patterns outside of a several day lead time. Modeled clippers can vanish and others pop out of nowhere. Certainly looks good from Black Friday thru the following Tuesday. That weekend clipper should beer winds more northwest to bring the bands deeper into Indiana. But like you said, you never know for sure with clippers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 After a nice/brief trend yesterday things have trended back towards a non-event for the central/western sub for the Wed system. Next thing to track may be a clipper next weekend, but not looking too impressive. Hope we don't waste this cold stretch and then have to sit out 2-4 weeks of warmth in the heart of December like usual.You’ll appreciate January even more!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Certainly looks good from Black Friday thru the following Tuesday. That weekend clipper should beer winds more northwest to bring the bands deeper into Indiana. But like you said, you never know for sure with clippers.Mmmm beer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Autocorrect knows me too well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 It's bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: It's bad LOT going down with the ship: POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 NAM gives us a Thanksgiving phase just to the south of Chicago metro. Euro is close but a bit late. We should know by the midday runs if this is a possibility or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 3 hours ago, DocATL said: NAM gives us a Thanksgiving phase just to the south of Chicago metro. Euro is close but a bit late. We should know by the midday runs if this is a possibility or not. I've always liked the NAM in this range. It just sorts stinks when it's D-Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 12z runs coming in zzzzzz sad 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 12z runs coming in zzzzzz sad At least maybe we can finesse a clipper before the cold settles in? Ik I'm reaching but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Looking at Dec from my modelling method, I'm going with colder early Dec, but a switch in mid Dec to a milder, wetter pattern (more stm chance my way), before things switch out after the solstice to a colder pattern again. Actually could see an avg to below (possibly well below for some) Dec in the books to end the year for sub as a whole. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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