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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion


michsnowfreak
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14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models have also really backed off of the extreme cold they were advertising a week ago.  Now it just looks like some typical January cold.  The latest model runs don't even have any sub-zero lows here.

Good, with the recent rains and warm temps the grass in my neighborhood greened back up. I wouldn't want below zero temps, that's the kind of stuff that kills plants. 

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models have also really backed off of the extreme cold they were advertising a week ago.  Now it just looks like some typical January cold.  The latest model runs don't even have any sub-zero lows here.

The lack of any decent or widespread snow cover maybe playing a role in that. Kind of similar to Jan 2011. Although it finished below average, their wasn't any extreme cold. I think ORD only got below zero once. 

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2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

The lack of any decent or widespread snow cover maybe playing a role in that. Kind of similar to Jan 2011. Although it finished below average, there wasn't any extreme cold. I think ORD only got below zero once. 

While the coming airmass this week isn’t extreme for January standards, It would still be plenty cold enough to go below zero at night if there was snow cover.

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13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That Euro total snow map till January 18 looks depressing for everyone in the Great Lakes, Ohio, and NE region outside of the snow belts. Hope things change in the last 10 days of the month. 

Outside of whatever happens to our south with this weekends system, its just a terrible storm pattern for everyone. I guess I should be happy to see the lake flakes considering many folks in MN, WI, New England wont see anything. Looks like the next synoptic thing to watch will be next weekend with a clipper diving south. Periods of lake effect snow and clippers certainly cant be ruled out in the NW flow, in fact some disturbances will be likely, but they will be hard to pinpoint more than a few days out and all should be minor. REALLY need to a more active pattern after mid-Jan. 

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11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Outside of whatever happens to our south with this weekends system, its just a terrible storm pattern for everyone. I guess I should be happy to see the lake flakes considering many folks in MN, WI, New England wont see anything. Looks like the next synoptic thing to watch will be next weekend with a clipper diving south. Periods of lake effect snow and clippers certainly cant be ruled out in the NW flow, in fact some disturbances will be likely, but they will be hard to pinpoint more than a few days out and all should be minor. REALLY need to a more active pattern after mid-Jan. 

Kinda breaks the generalization of la ninas having more precip in Michigan.

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On 1/3/2025 at 2:43 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Outside of whatever happens to our south with this weekends system, its just a terrible storm pattern for everyone. I guess I should be happy to see the lake flakes considering many folks in MN, WI, New England wont see anything. Looks like the next synoptic thing to watch will be next weekend with a clipper diving south. Periods of lake effect snow and clippers certainly cant be ruled out in the NW flow, in fact some disturbances will be likely, but they will be hard to pinpoint more than a few days out and all should be minor. REALLY need to a more active pattern after mid-Jan. 

All the ensembles are indicating a pattern shift after the 15th. The PNA ridge begins to break down and a ridge begins to form around Alaska towards the Aleutians. This will shift the mean trough towards the plains and hopefully give way to a more stormier/active storm track for the sub in the final 10-15 days of the month. About the only silver lining I see right now. 

615373933_0ZEPS.thumb.png.5adf33c4f86ea5b4c827783560bd9215.png

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46 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

All the ensembles are indicating a pattern shift after the 15th. The PNA ridge begins to break down and a ridge begins to form around Alaska towards the Aleutians. This will shift the mean trough towards the plains and hopefully give way to a more stormier/active storm track for the sub in the final 10-15 days of the month. About the only silver lining I see right now. 

615373933_0ZEPS.thumb.png.5adf33c4f86ea5b4c827783560bd9215.png

The signal is definitely there on all the ensembles and weeklies. The issue in the short term is the cold and zzzz pattern that's frustrating snow lovers and the fact that any impulses/systems that DO occur in the meantime will have very poor run to run consistency on timing, location, etc.

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37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The signal is definitely there on all the ensembles and weeklies. The issue in the short term is the cold and zzzz pattern that's frustrating snow lovers and the fact that any impulses/systems that DO occur in the meantime will have very poor run to run consistency on timing, location, etc.

Lucky we at least have the Lions to help the zzz's

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All the ensembles are indicating a pattern shift after the 15th. The PNA ridge begins to break down and a ridge begins to form around Alaska towards the Aleutians. This will shift the mean trough towards the plains and hopefully give way to a more stormier/active storm track for the sub in the final 10-15 days of the month. About the only silver lining I see right now. 
615373933_0ZEPS.thumb.png.5adf33c4f86ea5b4c827783560bd9215.png

I’d be skeptical and go with pattern persistence. This carrot has been dangled a few times already.


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