Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DocATL]

Zzzzzz
Hopefully the cad doesn't last through spring, 0z op euro about as ugly as it gets imby

I think we finally cash in on some substantial snow come spring


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[A-L-E-K]

me, malacka,and doc renting boats to see snow

 

[DocATL]

me, malacka,and doc renting boats to see snow

 

You know you’re getting trolled by the LES machine when sh!t like this happens.

As for the suburban snowshield


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[sbnwx85]

It’s so bad even my snow stick is flaccid.

[mimillman]

The salt outside union station kinda looks like snow 

 

[DocATL]

I am praying for a nice ridge and some sun after mid-month. Living through two long CADs is enough.


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[Maxim]

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yeah, in April when we absolutely do not want it. 

People say that every year. Then last spring ended up being wondrous, so idk.

[A-L-E-K]

55 minutes ago, DocATL said:

You know you’re getting trolled by the LES machine when sh!t like this happens.

As for the suburban snowshield


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[Stebo]

Unironic posting of the Ukmet

[Frog Town]

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

This is an outlier at this point. 

[A-L-E-K]

u can tell it's a bad winter by how triggered folks are

[Chicago Storm]

u can tell it's a bad winter by how triggered folks are

understatement.

however, locally, we’re ahead of where we were with both snow and cold compared to last winter at this point.

[Stebo]

20 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

u can tell it's a bad winter by how triggered folks are

Next time post the JMA or Nogaps unironically

[Harry Perry]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

understatement.

however, locally, we’re ahead of where we were with both snow and cold compared to last winter at this point.

Silver lining.

[Snowstorms]

I am liking the subtle trends towards a neutral PNA as we get closer to mid January on the ensembles. The NAO block likely shifts from being west based to east based which should help as opposed to now where every storm is being suppressed. 

I think our best window of opportunity is between Jan 13 and Jan 25 as the +PNA wanes and an Alaskan ridge builds. Until then zzz. 

[michsnowfreak]

18 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I am liking the subtle trends towards a neutral PNA as we get closer to mid January on the ensembles. The NAO block likely shifts from being west based to east based which should help as opposed to now where every storm is being suppressed. 

I think our best window of opportunity is between Jan 13 and Jan 25 as the +PNA wanes and an Alaskan ridge builds. Until then zzz. 

That would be nice. Mid-late January often is a good time for snowstorms anyway. Until then, have to hope for some clippers and lake dust.

[Maxim]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

u can tell it's a bad winter by how triggered folks are

I noticed this in the Nina thread too, it's really not healthy.

[Snowstorms]

10 minutes ago, Maxim said:

I noticed this in the Nina thread too, it's really not healthy.

I think its the continuing bad winters we keep seeing thats getting to people's heads. These guys in the Nino thread last year were so amped that we finally got a Nino and it ended up being worse than the trifecta Nina that preceded it.  

[roardog]

3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I think its the continuing bad winters we keep seeing thats getting to people's heads. These guys in the Nino thread last year were so amped that we finally got a Nino and it ended up being worse than the trifecta Nina that preceded it.  

Last year was technically a super Nino. I mean, those are always bad everywhere. There was no hope.

[Frog Town]

This says it all right here.  Guy is legit and great at pattern recognition.  We Winter! 

 

https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistRossEllet

[sbnwx85]

42 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

This says it all right here.  Guy is legit and great at pattern recognition.  We Winter! 

 

https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistRossEllet

Interesting read. Hope it verifies! 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I think its the continuing bad winters we keep seeing thats getting to people's heads. These guys in the Nino thread last year were so amped that we finally got a Nino and it ended up being worse than the trifecta Nina that preceded it.  

That's a mid-Atlantic thing wrt strong nino. It usually increases their chance of a big winter storm. Strong ninos are never good here. I braced for the worst and hoped for the best but last winter was the lowest expectations I ever have going into a winter. Other than last winter, it hasn't been bad here for snow-lovers. We are far enough removed from the record snow years of 2007-2015 than an average snow season shouldn't be considered "bad" imo.

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

This says it all right here.  Guy is legit and great at pattern recognition.  We Winter! 

 

https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistRossEllet

Interesting read! Sounds good to me.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Thick lake ice and prime snowmaking conditions. Not much else going on…

[DocATL]

understatement.

however, locally, we’re ahead of where we were with both snow and cold compared to last winter at this point.

I mean…that’s not saying much…but yes, correct.


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[Snowstorms]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

That's a mid-Atlantic thing wrt strong nino. It usually increases their chance of a big winter storm. Strong ninos are never good here. I braced for the worst and hoped for the best but last winter was the lowest expectations I ever have going into a winter. Other than last winter, it hasn't been bad here for snow-lovers. We are far enough removed from the record snow years of 2007-2015 than an average snow season shouldn't be considered "bad" imo.

Agreed. I think the mid-atlantic likes strong nino's cause it beefs up the stj and even with marginal temps, they can "squeeze" in some miracle storm despite it being a complete disaster elsewhere.

I think for us snow weenies, the next 1-2 weeks are going to be brutal coming off the December we had with nothing going on. But atleast it will be cold. I think our best chance might be next weekend, at the earliest. Both the GFS and CMC have some moving pieces thanks to the active but suppressed stj. What's key is if we can get a partial phase. 

[A-L-E-K]

EPS very grim, punting until february looking possible

[cyclone77]

Yeah looking pretty dull for next 10+ days.  Hopefully something decent to track again later this month or by Feb.

[Stebo]

31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah looking pretty dull for next 10+ days.  Hopefully something decent to track again later this month or by Feb.

We have to hope for the typical Feb boost we have had in the last 20 years, because if that doesn't happen this could be a top 10 dud for many in the region.

[DocATL]

Yeah looking pretty dull for next 10+ days.  Hopefully something decent to track again later this month or by Feb.

Some folks thought the idea of this was just silly and not based on modeling. Now here we are. Snow means are better for DC than Chicago. Real annoying thing is that we aren’t seeing any good signals for a sustained warm up either, so we are stuck in this pattern.