Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[roardog]

3 hours ago, dmc76 said:

It doesn’t even seem like it gets that cold in the lower lakes region. To me looks very January-ish 

Yeah. The coldest air goes south and west of us. That’s probably due to the high latitude blocking. It kind of reminds me of the 09-10 winter in that regard.

[Maxim]

23 hours ago, Frog Town said:

The pattern yells cold, not the models.  Look at analogs with this set up in the past.  '77, '94, '14...

We're not seeing a month like Jan '77 ever again

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, Maxim said:

We're not seeing a month like Jan '77 ever again

Feb 2015 closely rivaled Jan 1977 in terms of cold in the Lakes region. Having one of the coldest months on record is actually not something many want to repeat anyway. 

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, nwohweather said:

And so people should be. Detroit and Toledo aren’t at a very high latitude, a consistent pattern with entrenched cold and a snowpack is the only way you should be fully optimistic. This isn’t exactly Traverse City

I was more referring to the fact that we see mostly negativity wrt the longrange REGARDLESS of what it shows. I literally witnessed Detroits most severe stretch of winters in recorded history on these weatherboards and I can assure you the attitude was mostly poor until storms/systems were in nowcast range. 

[nwohweather]

We're still a ways out (and probably need a separate thread for this) but I like the odds of this running more along the lines of the Ohio River & not the KY/TN border. That high pressure coming out of the Canadian Prairies means business but I'd feel pretty confident if I lived in between US 20 & US 30 across the Ohio Valley at this time of a 6-10" storm

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Feb 2015 closely rivaled Jan 1977 in terms of cold in the Lakes region. Having one of the coldest months on record is actually not something many want to repeat anyway. 

When I think brutal cold, two periods come to mind,  Dec ‘89 and Jan ‘94.   The ‘89 outbreak had CMH hit a low of -18.   Jan ‘94 -22 with areas in southeast OH hitting the minus 30s.    

[buckeye]

55 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

We're still a ways out (and probably need a separate thread for this) but I like the odds of this running more along the lines of the Ohio River & not the KY/TN border. That high pressure coming out of the Canadian Prairies means business but I'd feel pretty confident if I lived in between US 20 & US 30 across the Ohio Valley at this time of a 6-10" storm

That would be nice for cmh.  I have no feeling either way whether this heads further south and shears out or comes north and amped.  Years ago you could bet the house on a northward trend.  Last few years it seems the sheared out weaker trends have been winning out.   I see great meteorological arguments for both outcomes.

one thing hasn’t changed, the outcome probably won’t come into focus until 72 hrs out.

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, buckeye said:

When I think brutal cold, two periods come to mind,  Dec ‘89 and Jan ‘94.   The ‘89 outbreak had CMH hit a low of -18.   Jan ‘94 -22 with areas in southeast OH hitting the minus 30s.    

December 1989 was impressively cold here although no gawdy temps (lowest -9). The sour thing about that is how 1989-90 turned very mild after new year for the rest of winter. 1993-94 was a much longer (albeit late starting) winter. For me nothing will rival the brutal cold and deep snow of 2013-14 & Feb 2015, but the cold snap of Jan 2019 was very impressive (but short).

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

That would be nice for cmh.  I have no feeling either way whether this heads further south and shears out or comes north and amped.  Years ago you could bet the house on a northward trend.  Last few years it seems the sheared out weaker trends have been winning out.   I see great meteorological arguments for both outcomes.

one thing hasn’t changed, the outcome probably won’t come into focus until 72 hrs out.

Amen to the bolded!

[DocATL]

I was more referring to the fact that we see mostly negativity wrt the longrange REGARDLESS of what it shows. I literally witnessed Detroits most severe stretch of winters in recorded history on these weatherboards and I can assure you the attitude was mostly poor until storms/systems were in nowcast range. 

Seems crazy if it’s a season where the gift keeps giving. This season, folks are a bit jaded by the start to the season where we had a lot of cold go for naught with CAD and the possibility of seeing that transpire again in the heart of winter. That said, we’ve at least had several model runs showing warning level snows for Chicago. It trended away as of late but was at least nice to get some fantasy snows. There’s always a chance it trends back north but the GFS and Euro right now are not there.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

December 1989 was impressively cold here although no gawdy temps (lowest -9). The sour thing about that is how 1989-90 turned very mild after new year for the rest of winter. 1993-94 was a much longer (albeit late starting) winter. For me nothing will rival the brutal cold and deep snow of 2013-14 & Feb 2015, but the cold snap of Jan 2019 was very impressive (but short).

Didn’t ‘13-‘14 actually end up colder than ‘76-‘77 in areas like northern Minnesota? I know, someone is going to say that was 10 years ago and it’s impossible now but people said that then too and look what happened. 

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, roardog said:

Didn’t ‘13-‘14 actually end up colder than ‘76-‘77 in areas like northern Minnesota? I know, someone is going to say that was 10 years ago and it’s impossible now but people said that then too and look what happened. 

I'm not sure but it's quite possible. But you are absolutely correct how people said it was impossible then (2014). Ever since the 1990s all we've heard is that same song and dance. 2013-14 blew 1977-78 away for severity (cold + snow + snowdepth) here but you get a few down snow years and people start right in with the 1970s. Odd how clearly they can remember 50 years ago but not 10 or 15 years lol. As for 1976-77. The definition of cold and dry the further north you went. Saginaw saw a season total snow of 18".

[Geoboy645]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm not sure but it's quite possible. But you are absolutely correct how people said it was impossible then (2014). Ever since the 1990s all we've heard is that same song and dance. 2013-14 blew 1977-78 away for severity (cold + snow + snowdepth) here but you get a few down snow years and people start right in with the 1970s. Odd how clearly they can remember 50 years ago but not 10 or 15 years lol. As for 1976-77. The definition of cold and dry the further north you went. Saginaw saw a season total snow of 18".

Yeah it's kind of annoying that whenever cold and snow happens, everyone brings up the trio of late 70s winters and then 13-14/14-15 and that's pretty much it. Like we have had so many other cold and snowy stretches in the intervening and subsequent years that are just not talked about. We had several major snowpack and cold winters in the 80s with stretches that tied or beat the late 70s winters such as Dec 83, Jan 85, and Dec 89. The 90s had 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 which were all all-time winters in parts of the forum. The 94 and 96 cold waves literally set state records that still stand to this day.  And recently, 18-19 had one of the most intense second halves of the winter ever with snow and had the coldest period since the mid 90s. And 20-21 literally was the largest cumulative snowdepth (not just one storm like GHD I) since 1979 for large areas of N IL, IA, and S WI. And yes 76-77 was the ultimate tundra winter for the midwest. The infamous Jan had a max snow depth of ...4 inches at Madison. And 8.7 inches of which the max snow was 1.6 for the entire month. Which is incredible for just how cold the temps got that month. 

[michsnowfreak]

40 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Yeah it's kind of annoying that whenever cold and snow happens, everyone brings up the trio of late 70s winters and then 13-14/14-15 and that's pretty much it. Like we have had so many other cold and snowy stretches in the intervening and subsequent years that are just not talked about. We had several major snowpack and cold winters in the 80s with stretches that tied or beat the late 70s winters such as Dec 83, Jan 85, and Dec 89. The 90s had 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 which were all all-time winters in parts of the forum. The 94 and 96 cold waves literally set state records that still stand to this day.  And recently, 18-19 had one of the most intense second halves of the winter ever with snow and had the coldest period since the mid 90s. And 20-21 literally was the largest cumulative snowdepth (not just one storm like GHD I) since 1979 for large areas of N IL, IA, and S WI. And yes 76-77 was the ultimate tundra winter for the midwest. The infamous Jan had a max snow depth of ...4 inches at Madison. And 8.7 inches of which the max snow was 1.6 for the entire month. Which is incredible for just how cold the temps got that month. 

Couldn't have said it better myself. Now. The late 70s winters were brutal, absolutely. But HERE they were nothing really special snow-wise, except for 1977-78, and even that was much worse all around us. 1977-78 was very frontloaded, as winter was really nothing but frigid zzzz after the blizzard (though we did maintain snowpack into March). 76-77 was a tundra in many places and we locally got screwed in 78-79 despite the widespread cold and nearby heavy snow. I honestly think that the constant "blizzard of 78" photos that circulate social media start to make people remember something based on a photo not an actual memory. The winter of 81-82 was just 4 years later and is never mentioned despite being more severe here. And of course decades more recently are winters like 2000-01, 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18 all of which easily could stick in a memory better than the late 70s here.

[dmc76]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Couldn't have said it better myself. Now. The late 70s winters were brutal, absolutely. But HERE they were nothing really special snow-wise, except for 1977-78, and even that was much worse all around us. 1977-78 was very frontloaded, as winter was really nothing but frigid zzzz after the blizzard (though we did maintain snowpack into March). 76-77 was a tundra in many places and we locally got screwed in 78-79 despite the widespread cold and nearby heavy snow. I honestly think that the constant "blizzard of 78" photos that circulate social media start to make people remember something based on a photo not an actual memory. The winter of 81-82 was just 4 years later and is never mentioned despite being more severe here. And of course decades more recently are winters like 2000-01, 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18 and 2020-21 all of which easily could stick in a memory better than the late 70s here.

FYP

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, dmc76 said:

FYP

Actually yeah 2020-21 was better than 1976-77 and 1978-79.

[Spartman]

Looking really cold beyond early next week

[RogueWaves]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Feb 2015 closely rivaled Jan 1977 in terms of cold in the Lakes region. Having one of the coldest months on record is actually not something many want to repeat anyway. 

My Feb 2015: 26.9" snow, CAT-4 Big Dog storm, Blizzard, and five days with dbl-digit below zero readings. An honest to goodness winter month if ever there was one. I'd gladly take a repeat. Edit - forgot to mention excellent deep snow cover thrown in for good measure.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Couldn't have said it better myself. Now. The late 70s winters were brutal, absolutely. But HERE they were nothing really special snow-wise, except for 1977-78, and even that was much worse all around us. 1977-78 was very frontloaded, as winter was really nothing but frigid zzzz after the blizzard (though we did maintain snowpack into March). 76-77 was a tundra in many places and we locally got screwed in 78-79 despite the widespread cold and nearby heavy snow. I honestly think that the constant "blizzard of 78" photos that circulate social media start to make people remember something based on a photo not an actual memory. The winter of 81-82 was just 4 years later and is never mentioned despite being more severe here. And of course decades more recently are winters like 2000-01, 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18 all of which easily could stick in a memory better than the late 70s here.

That late 70's hang-over winter. I ofc have mentioned it more than once. Why do people remember the tri-fecta 77/78/79 winters more than any other single winter? Because, even if 2 of 3 weren't great snow seasons for DTW, those winters were making headlines in nearby places like Buffalo and Chicago. Those winters scored a lot of historic news headlines for our region, tho as you've said, Detroit was never the bullseye as in 13-14. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

5 hours ago, roardog said:

Didn’t ‘13-‘14 actually end up colder than ‘76-‘77 in areas like northern Minnesota?

Not going to go digging up stats right now, but here in Minneapolis we rivaled any winter in the modern record on days below zero in 13-14’

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzzz

Hopefully the cad doesn't last through spring, 0z op euro about as ugly as it gets imby

[OrdIowPitMsp]

350+ hours on the GFS before a drop of moisture here. 
 

I guess I can count on a solid rainer when we break above the freezing mark in 3 weeks. 

[A-L-E-K]

not our winter redux

[roardog]

Nothing that you would consider extreme cold for January standards is really shown but there should be a nice stretch of below freezing temps for many in the sub. Could actually be the longest stretch we have had in a few years.

[Imneversatisfied]

Suicide weather here in Alpena,MI with bare ground probably for the next week or two I would have traded my white Christmas to still have the 4" of snow we had then now.

[roardog]

12 minutes ago, Imneversatisfied said:

Suicide weather here in Alpena,MI with bare ground probably for the next week or two I would have traded my white Christmas to still have the 4" of snow we had then now.

It’s actually better than mild and dry IMO. When it’s mild in January, it seems like it’s foggy and dreary everyday. 

[mimillman]

49 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

not our winter redux

November was cookin with our 3” that melted same day 

[ILSNOW]

Dont give up we will have our traditional 5-7 days of winter sometime in late Jan/early Feb!!!!!!!

[A-L-E-K]

yeah we'll get our 10 days

[SchaumburgStormer]

5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah we'll get our 10 days

Yeah, in April when we absolutely do not want it.