Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WestMichigan]

6 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Euro is pretty juicy 

Waiting for the 50 miles north or 50 miles south and I am in the money posts.

[nvck]

35 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Waiting for the 50 miles north or 50 miles south and I am in the money posts.

Here ya go...

 

If this just came 50 or 60 miles south, I'd be in heaven

[Frog Town]

36 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Waiting for the 50 miles north or 50 miles south and I am in the money posts.

You definitely don't want to be in the jackpot at this time frame.  

[buckeye]

20 hours ago, nwohweather said:

I think Fort Wayne to Detroit stands to get a nice shot there on Tuesday evening

yep, probably an i-80 nw ohio/chicago/detroit special followed up by a TN valley slider.   That's how we roll here in the c'bus.

[nwohweather]

21 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

You definitely don't want to be in the jackpot at this time frame.  

One thing I notice on the Euro is that the pressure is likely underdone. Ample warm air being pulled out of the Gulf showing Atlanta at 60 for Hour 180 with ambient temps reaching -20 below in the Dakotas. This thing should be a tad stronger and more tilted. I'd love my chances in Grand Rapids, South Bend & Chicago with this one.

[nwohweather]

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

yep, probably an i-80 nw ohio/chicago/detroit special followed up by a TN valley slider.   That's how we roll here in the c'bus.

It just doesn't look like a good snow maker due to a poor thermal setup. The forecast models all show a thump for Toledo, but the reality is 10:1 ratios are pipe dream with the system having to fight against a very mild air mass currently in place. I wouldn't be shocked to see 1-2" of frozen cement for Toledo and it's eastern suburbs

[Frog Town]

19 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

One thing I notice on the Euro is that the pressure is likely underdone. Ample warm air being pulled out of the Gulf showing Atlanta at 60 for Hour 180 with ambient temps reaching -20 below in the Dakotas. This thing should be a tad stronger and more tilted. I'd love my chances in Grand Rapids, South Bend & Chicago with this one.

That's what I'd typically think, but with the TPV heading this way, I think things end up a bit more suppressed/pressure gradient/windier than normal.  Every storm in 2013-14 ended up this way and we will have a very similar set-up(big picture wise) next weekend.  

[Chicago Storm]

One thing I notice on the Euro is that the pressure is likely underdone. Ample warm air being pulled out of the Gulf showing Atlanta at 60 for Hour 180 with ambient temps reaching -20 below in the Dakotas. This thing should be a tad stronger and more tilted.

that’s not how it works.

[sbnwx85]

GFS showing a high-end advisory, low-end warning event for many.

[Pascy619]

If the GFS were to verify it would make alot of people in here happy. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

It just doesn't look like a good snow maker due to a poor thermal setup. The forecast models all show a thump for Toledo, but the reality is 10:1 ratios are pipe dream with the system having to fight against a very mild air mass currently in place. I wouldn't be shocked to see 1-2" of frozen cement for Toledo and it's eastern suburbs

Are you talking about tomorrow or Monday? Because there will be plenty of cold enough air available for Monday.

[nwohweather]

Are you talking about tomorrow or Monday? Because there will be plenty of cold enough air available for Monday.

Tomorrow

[SchaumburgStormer]

13 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

GFS showing a high-end advisory, low-end warning event for many.

8+ inches of snow in 12 hours is a solid warning level event. 

[sbnwx85]

5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

8+ inches of snow in 12 hours is a solid warning level event. 

Sounds like my honeymoon! Goodnight, folks!

[ILSNOW]

GFS thinks it is going to get a "little cold".

l 

 

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[michsnowfreak]

41 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Tomorrow

Oh ok. Then I agree lol

[Baum]

It's been so lame for so many years if trends for at minimum a moderate event hold someone better manage who's going to be a thread starter, if the time comes. If memory serves their are some here that are clear jinx's. Not that i'm superstitious. Best to call out who they are now.

[Stevo6899]

12 minutes ago, Baum said:

It's been so lame for so many years if trends for at minimum a moderate event hold someone better manage who's going to be a thread starter, if the time comes. If memory serves their are some here that are clear jinx's. Not that i'm superstitious. Best to call out who they are now.

You should start the arctic air/cold thread that's gonna need to be created late week. Granted it's not record setting cold for great lakes region, but will be nice for your unluckyness to help reverse the useless cold that's coming.

[sbnwx85]

17 minutes ago, Baum said:

It's been so lame for so many years if trends for at minimum a moderate event hold someone better manage who's going to be a thread starter, if the time comes. If memory serves their are some here that are clear jinx's. Not that i'm superstitious. Best to call out who they are now.

Won't be me... I started the December obs thread and look how that month turned out. 

[Malacka11]

11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

You should start the arctic air/cold thread that's gonna need to be created late week. Granted it's not record setting cold for great lakes region, but will be nice for your unluckyness to help reverse the useless cold that's coming.

Is it useless cold if there's a solid snowpack laid down before it? Also obviously idk shit about fuck but surely a couple of clippers would pop up here and there to get us through it, right? Looks to me like the models suggest at least one or two small refreshers might drift through at some point after this weekend, even if CAD is definitely the theme

[A-L-E-K]

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Is it useless cold if there's a solid snowpack laid down before it? Also obviously idk shit about fuck but surely a couple of clippers would pop up here and there to get us through it, right? Looks to me like the models suggest at least one or two small refreshers might drift through at some point after this weekend, even if CAD is definitely the theme

Temps don't even looks all that notable, just getting normie press hype because it's been zzzz

[DocATL]

Hate to keep beating this dead horse but this was the weakest hyped up torch since the last hyped torch.


.

[Chicago Storm]

Hate to keep beating this dead horse but this was the weakest hyped up torch since the last hyped torch.


.

it has been as advertised.

[Stevo6899]

45 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Is it useless cold if there's a solid snowpack laid down before it? Also obviously idk shit about fuck but surely a couple of clippers would pop up here and there to get us through it, right? Looks to me like the models suggest at least one or two small refreshers might drift through at some point after this weekend, even if CAD is definitely the theme

Gotta get that snow first and even then thats not guaranteed. Still a week away with the next threat so who knows. I guess a couple clippers could roll through if those get you excited like they do for josh.

[buckeye]

32 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Temps don't even looks all that notable, just getting normie press hype because it's been zzzz

this

I was thinking the same.  492dm line over head and I check the 2m temps and yea it's cold, but not what you would expect.  Running through the gfs, I think the coldest temp here over the next couple weeks is -5 ish, and the Canadian, (which loves to exaggerate the cold in medium range), doesn't even have us going below zero.  Duration might be the most notable aspect, not so much the severity of the cold itself.   Been awhile since we had 2 weeks of continuous subfreezing temps.

 

[Malacka11]

18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Gotta get that snow first and even then thats not guaranteed. Still a week away with the next threat so who knows. I guess a couple clippers could roll through if those get you excited like they do for josh.

Yeah, that's definitely a big dependency. My enjoyment of any subsequent clippers and ability to tolerate the cold both hinge significantly on having at least a half decent opener, otherwise it's just more dog shite.

[Snowstorms]

The biggest drawback with this cold could be the lack of storms with the way the trough is going to be positioned. And aside from warm torches in winter, I hate long cold/dry patterns. 

[DocATL]

The biggest drawback with this cold could be the lack of storms with the way the trough is going to be positioned. And aside from warm torches in winter, I hate long cold/dry patterns. 

It will be similar to early December. Euro trended south this run. Would expect it to trend that way on GFS as well. Still think we don’t get any substantial snow until this pattern relaxes in late January. Delayed but not denied.

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Temps don't even looks all that notable, just getting normie press hype because it's been zzzz

The pattern yells cold, not the models.  Look at analogs with this set up in the past.  '77, '94, '14...

[A-L-E-K]

Different planet