Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Most people would like a sunny and mild Spring but I would rather have lots of storms with gulf moisture even if it means it’s 40F and raining here while it’s 75F in Toledo. There’s plenty of time for sunny, pleasant and boring days in the summer.

There's plenty of time in the summer for severe storms.  Also for low pressures to take the current track of this weekends storm, perfect track for snow but no cold air around. I do see todays euro does try to strengthen the low a bit for maybe some frozen precip. This more wound up solution pulls the baroclinic zone a bit further south for the next storm midweek to take a more southern track and possibly thread the needle for some areas (detroit).

[Lightning]

8 hours ago, DocATL said:

Yes just snow. That’s it. Otherwise mild temps will do.

I know I’m not getting what I want by any means. It’s the highs and lows of model watching and prognosticating that makes it fun.

Obviously it’s colder than Atlanta. The 2.5 inches we got last week would have made many a winter down there.

Chicago is a great place to get some occasional snows but mostly mild temperatures.  It is not a continuous snow and cold city. It can get some great storms but they are not yearly.

Also keep in mind snow is fickle as colder winters do not always equate to great snows.  

I can give to extremes where I live which the snowfall was opposite the temps.  95-96 was below average temps but snow was well below average ( ~15" below my area's average snowfall).  04-05 was well above average temps yet snow was WAY above average (it was 50" above average IMBY). 

Generally speaking the colder winter do produce the better snows but snow is definitely fickle at times.

[A-L-E-K]

The coming east coast pattern is gonna be rough

[buckeye]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

The coming east coast pattern is gonna be rough

Rougher for them if they don't score anything in that pattern.   

[dmc76]

BAM: big snows coming to Indy. 
 

GFS: 0.2” for Indy 
 

 

[sbnwx85]

CAD Watch in effect.

[buckeye]

snowfall totals for gefs and eps through 360 are pretty paltry for the MA and I-95 in spite of a favorable 500mb look. Actually heavier for GL and OV in spite of a further east trough axis...but still nothing great here either.   

I think most likely we go from this coming warmth to cad for a week or so and then the trough exits stage right and we go back into a wavy pattern of warm/wet cold dry.   Best hope of snow outside of some nw flow stuff is a surprise storm on a front transitioning of the warm to cold or vice versa.  Something like that might not get picked up on models until inside of 150 hrs.

[buckeye]

Just now, buckeye said:

snowfall totals for gefs and eps through 360 are pretty paltry for the MA and I-95 in spite of a favorable 500mb look. Actually heavier for GL and OV in spite of a further east trough axis...but still nothing great here either.   

I think most likely we go from this coming warmth to cad for a week or so and then the trough exits stage right and we go back into a wavy pattern of warm/wet cold dry.   Best hope of snow outside of some nw flow stuff is a surprise storm on a front transitioning of the warm to cold or vice versa.  Something like that might not get picked up on models until inside of 150 hrs.

/\ this is the most optimistic post you will see from me