Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Omg Josh! That’s a true definition of putting lipstick on a piece of turd! 

 

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

 

You're better off just ignoring it. If you engage, Josh will turd polish you into submission until you tap out. Lions could use him on the defense.

 

57 minutes ago, buckeye said:

You sound like an ole fashioned CMH snow weenie…

…it’s happening Josh…you’re in denial right now but fear not, the next stage is acceptance

I literally said that a 1-2" snowfall would be a nice way to kick off the winter solstice, and that there's been no days of 2"+ depth yet. How in the phuck is that putting lipstick on a turd? I guess I have to remember that discussing the weather or weather stats on a weather board is no longer acceptable. 

 

[dmc76]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

 

I literally said that a 1-2" snowfall would be a nice way to kick off the winter solstice, and that there's been no days of 2"+ depth yet. How in the phuck is that putting lipstick on a turd? I guess I have to remember that discussing the weather or weather stats on a weather board is no longer acceptable. 

 

No. You miss understood me. It’s not the 1-2” that’s forecasted. It’s the dusting we had on the ground. lol. Yes 7 days of “snow otg” that hasn’t totaled 2”. It is kind of shining up a piece of turd. And it was lake effect too. 

[Frog Town]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

the key here is, if neither i nor ohweather are talking up something interesting, there's nothing to see for our region.

sure, there's thread the needle patterns here and there, but many of you want more than that.

I have a few Dr. acquaintances that think M.D. stands for Major Deity, so I see where you're coming from... 

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Not that it matters, but ORD is much worse than DTW. Zero days of 1” snow cover. 

some would say that it has been great.

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

No. You miss understood me. It’s not the 1-2” that’s forecasted. It’s the dusting we had on the ground. lol. Yes 7 days of “snow otg” that hasn’t totaled 2”. It is kind of shining up a piece of turd. And it was lake effect too. 

You misunderstood me. Like I said. Weather on weather board is really becoming taboo. It's why SO many good posters are long gone and many of the ones left are just here because we've been for so long.

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

 

You're better off just ignoring it. If you engage, Josh will turd polish you into submission until you tap out. Lions could use him on the defense.

 

Bobby Layne curse manifesting itself in another creative way lol...

[Chicago916]

All jokes aside the trend is still good for the late week clipper. With some kind of lake enhancement, maybe someone in WI or IL will get 3"+... I guess some will take it before the huge torch and given how un-wintry things have been. Would be nice to even see fantasy big dogs again in models.

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

 

I literally said that a 1-2" snowfall would be a nice way to kick off the winter solstice, and that there's been no days of 2"+ depth yet. How in the phuck is that putting lipstick on a turd? I guess I have to remember that discussing the weather or weather stats on a weather board is no longer acceptable. 

 

We're just messing around Josh. No need to pull out the fake swear words lol. Keep doing you. Don't let us bring you down...

[cyclone77]

Models pretty consistent with a nice, widespread rainer on boxing day, or the day after.  May need a thread soon.

[buckeye]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

 

I literally said that a 1-2" snowfall would be a nice way to kick off the winter solstice, and that there's been no days of 2"+ depth yet. How in the phuck is that putting lipstick on a turd? I guess I have to remember that discussing the weather or weather stats on a weather board is no longer acceptable. 

 

just messing with you....

[michsnowfreak]

History time lol. We've actually been fortunate in SE MI compared to areas away from the Lakes. It's just been a very bad synoptic start to the season despite the cold start. Funny thing, cold and dry patterns are more rare now than they used to be. Sure we get the occasional CAD stretch in places, but widespread cold for weeks with almost nothing synoptic to show for it regionwide is more rare. This was another thing that made the 1930-1969 stretch so unbearable for snowlovers locally. In addition to many very mild winters (esp 1930s & 1950s), many of the colder ones were cold and dry. The 1940s especially had a knack for long cold stretches with just light snowfall, then a big rain or ice storm then back to CAD. For me personally 1995-96 is what I think of when I think lots of cold and little snow. Obviously this winter is very young, just an observation of what's happened so far. 

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

History time lol. We've actually been fortunate in SE MI compared to areas away from the Lakes. It's just been a very bad synoptic start to the season despite the cold start. Funny thing, cold and dry patterns are more rare now than they used to be. Sure we get the occasional CAD stretch in places, but widespread cold for weeks with almost nothing synoptic to show for it regionwide is more rare. This was another thing that made the 1930-1969 stretch so unbearable for snowlovers locally. In addition to many very mild winters (esp 1930s & 1950s), many of the colder ones were cold and dry. The 1940s especially had a knack for long cold stretches with just light snowfall, then a big rain or ice storm then back to CAD. For me personally 1995-96 is what I think of when I think lots of cold and little snow. Obviously this winter is very young, just an observation of what's happened so far. 

 

An argument can also be made that the period from 2005 - 2015 was also historically not normal (on the snowy/cold end of extreme), and the region is simply reverting back to the mean with the past 10 years of avergae to mediocre winters.

[TheClimateChanger]

22 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

An argument can also be made that the period from 2005 - 2015 was also historically not normal (on the snowy/cold end of extreme), and the region is simply reverting back to the mean with the past 10 years of avergae to mediocre winters.

Were they really that unusual temperature-wise?

Only 4 of 11 winters from 2004-2005 to 2014-15 were colder than the long-term average of 27.2 at DTW (1958-59 to 2023-24).

Snowfall was certainly plentiful, however, with only 3 lower than the mean at DTW since 1959-1960. And also 5 of the top 6 amounts dating back to that timeframe (at bottom).

[michsnowfreak]

59 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

An argument can also be made that the period from 2005 - 2015 was also historically not normal (on the snowy/cold end of extreme), and the region is simply reverting back to the mean with the past 10 years of avergae to mediocre winters.

Oh Ive been saying that all along. Its a bit of a regression to get closer to normal, particularly with precip/snowfall. Even with the domination of milder winters since 2016, snowfall has not really suffered from a historical perspective. Since 2016, theres been 1 standout high snow season (2017-18) and 1 standout low snow season (2023-24) and the rest of teetered in the vicinity of average. Thats why its particularly rare of late to see the unseasonably cold pattern since late November yield very poor snow results outside the belts.

Im actually going to do the thing that Beavis talks about when I have time (probably after New Years lol) to add up SDDs. Idk if its a metric he made up or not, but its snow depth days. Not the total number of days with snow otg, but adding together each day with snowdepth for a cumulative number. i suspect the 2000s-2010s will dominate that list.

[beavis1729]

11 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

We're just messing around Josh. No need to pull out the fake swear words lol. Keep doing you. Don't let us bring you down...

Right...and of course it's not meant to be personal.  But while relentless optimism is probably a good thing overall in life, it sometimes comes across insensitive and out of touch…as it invalidates others’ concerns and valid points.  After 8 bad winters in a row, there are reasons to be frustrated, right?

Of course, you’re not responsible for making others feel better on a wx board…but there’s another dynamic going on here.  People like us who enjoy deep cold, snow, and everything about winter (which presumably includes you too!) don’t get any sympathy from the public.  So, we often come here for that, as everyone likes to feel part of a group with shared interests.   

So, your comment about a possible 1-2” of snow on the solstice is tone deaf, since (even if it actually occurs) it will be gone by Christmas…with a torch possible for the last week of 2024.  In all of your comments, there's an underlying tone of "why are you complaining?" But many of us look at it differently, i.e., who cares about 1-2” on the solstice in this setting, given how bad Dec has been up to this point and is expected to be post-Christmas. 

And when you keep saying that December has been chilly up to this point, many folks have two issues with that:  (1) There’s hardly any snow cover in the Midwest, Plains, and GL…much less in our back yards…so who cares about the relative cold (2) ORD’s normal temps are about 5F (!) higher for 1991-2020 vs. 1951-1980…so it’s all relative.  A normal DJF in 1951-1980 would be ok, but a normal DJF today is way too warm.  In other words, you need a -5F departure month to be decent these days.

Unfortunately, after struggling with it for years and years, I’ve finally had to acknowledge that our winter climo is horrible.  I guess I have you to thank for this, so congratulations.  I've been denying it for so long, but have to admit that you’re right.  What capped it off for me is looking at Snow Depth Days (SDDs), where you add up each day’s snow depth in inches across the whole season.  It’s a great way to compare the severity of winters, as it combines snow, temps, and snow cover into one easy number.  After doing this, the 1976-1985 period sticks out like a sore thumb to periods before and after.  This is horrible for me to accept, as I grew up on winters during that time and therefore it became my expectation.  But even so, people are still going to wish for “better than normal” on a wx board.  So, it’s annoying to constantly be told that these wishes are not logical…even though it may technically be true.  I hear this from the public all the time, so we don’t need to keep hearing it on a wx board full of our fellow weenies.  Yes, we know our climo is horrible…and, no, we don’t want to keep hearing about it.

Chicago annual average SDDs (winters ending in the years noted)

1966-1975:  162

1976-1985:  343

1986-1995:  113

1996-2005:  187

2006-2015:  225

2016-2024:  130

Even though the 2006-2015 winters look relatively good in the above chart, they weren’t really that good in my mind.  So now I need to accept that, compared to the last 8 winters, those winters were like living in Siberia.  Definitely not an easy pill to swallow.  As an example, for two of these winters in particular:

2008-09:  Many people think this was a great winter…but there was no snow cover at ORD from 12/27 to 1/9, then the wintry feel essentially ended after 2/8.  You need to have snow on the ground for most/all of Dec 15^th – Feb 15^th in order to have a proper winter.  Doesn’t need to be a lot of snow cover, just 3” so that blades of grass aren’t showing.

2010-11:  Even with the GHD storm, there were significant periods of no snow cover (such as 12/31 to 1/11, right in the heart of winter)…and we couldn’t even hold on to the GHD snow cover beyond 2/17.  When you get that much snow at the beginning of Feb, it should stay on the ground through the end of the month.  If it were Nov or March, that’s different.  Just too many thaws.

As always, our issue isn’t snow – it’s temps.  If we had a reliable 30-50” of seasonal snow with average temps 5-8F colder than our current norms, we’d be in good shape.  That’s why the warming of DJF normal temps by 5F over the past 40 years is so devastating.  Every degree matters in this area.  We don’t need blizzards and subzero temps – but the thaws are just too much to overcome.  Thaws need to have temps in the 30s, not 40s and 50s.

Even this morning was frustrating.  We finally got a dusting of snow, but it didn’t stick on the pavement, and will probably melt today in the sun despite the somewhat chilly temps.  Snow isn't supposed to melt in the sun on 12/18.  It’s like everything is going against maintaining a proper winter vibe around here.  That’s why you need to build a base in the first 2 weeks of December…since dustings of snow would then be welcomed and not worried about, since they just refresh the existing snow cover.  When you keep starting from scratch on snow cover over and over again, a million variables need to go right to get things going.  It’s just exhausting.

Winter shouldn’t just be “cooler than July with occasional periods of snow and cold”…as if getting a couple of decent snow events in DJF is a win.  But that’s how low our expectations have sunk.  It’s not about individual “events”; it’s the feel of the whole winter.  That’s like saying our expectation for summer should only be “milder than January with occasional warm days”…which of course isn’t true.  No one in their right mind would be happy with that in summer.

[TheClimateChanger]

31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh Ive been saying that all along. Its a bit of a regression to get closer to normal, particularly with precip/snowfall. Even with the domination of milder winters since 2016, snowfall has not really suffered from a historical perspective. Since 2016, theres been 1 standout high snow season (2017-18) and 1 standout low snow season (2023-24) and the rest of teetered in the vicinity of average. Thats why its particularly rare of late to see the unseasonably cold pattern since late November yield very poor snow results outside the belts.

Im actually going to do the thing that Beavis talks about when I have time (probably after New Years lol) to add up SDDs. Idk if its a metric he made up or not, but its snow depth days. Not the total number of days with snow otg, but adding together each day with snowdepth for a cumulative number. i suspect the 2000s-2010s will dominate that list.

I was going to do it for you, but for some reason, xMacis is messed up. If you select numbers of days where snow depth is exactly 1", it won't generate any days after the winter of 2012-13 for some reason. For DTW, that is. Not sure if this is the case for other locations. And I have no idea why it is doing it?

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I was going to do it for you, but for some reason, xMacis is messed up. If you select numbers of days where snow depth is exactly 1", it won't generate any days after the winter of 2012-13 for some reason. For DTW, that is. Not sure if this is the case for other locations. And I have no idea why it is doing it?

In fact, it doesn't seem to be working for any exact values other than 2 inches [and some other random depths]. It will generate number of days greater than or equal to a value, but it is having trouble with equal than. Weird.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

In fact, it doesn't seem to be working for any exact values other than 2 inches. It will generate number of days greater than or equal to a value, but it is having trouble with equal than. Weird.

I will generate the numbers for 1959-1960 to 2012-2013 in a second. Would have to do some weird stuff to figure out 2013-2014 to 2023-2024.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I will generate the numbers for 1959-1960 to 2012-2013 in a second. Would have to do some weird stuff to figure out 2013-2014 to 2023-2024.

Here are the top 10 SDD winters for DTW from 1959-1960 to 2012-2013, inclusive. These values are valid for DTW only, and may differ some from the threaded record prior to 1966. I wanted to maintain location consistency for this analysis.

• 1981-82, 528
• 1977-78, 514
• 2010-11, 494
• 1998-99, 391
• 2008-09, 382
• 2000-01, 333
• 1984-85, 309
• 1974-75, 297
• 1975-76, 285
• 1966-67, 277

Here are the 10 lowest SDD counts for that same time frame:

• 1988-89, 34
• 1979-80, 35
• 1982-83, 36
• 2011-12, 44
• 1971-72, 47
• 1960-61, 53
• 1965-66, 63
• 2001-02, 66
• 1995-96, 66
• 1968-69, 67

[TheClimateChanger]

xMacis is goofy for snow depth since 2013-2014. Let's hope those are the right numbers above prior to 2012-2013.

Look at this. Number of days 8"+ at DTW during 2013-2014:

Number of days 9"+ at DTW:

This would imply there were no days with exactly 8", but this is completely incorrect.

In fact, there were five days just in December with 8" snow depth at DTW.

Something's coded wrong here. You'd have to go in and manually calculate the number of days at each depth.

[Stevo6899]

44 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Right...and of course it's not meant to be personal.  But while relentless optimism is probably a good thing overall in life, it sometimes comes across insensitive and out of touch…as it invalidates others’ concerns and valid points.  After 8 bad winters in a row, there are reasons to be frustrated, right?

Im as big of a snowlover as anyone but you get used to the disappointment. It's also been nice to be a snowbird and not be around for the recent years of boredom. Perhaps you need to get away from the cold for a bit if you can.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

As always, our issue isn’t snow – it’s temps.

It's interesting how only a degree of latitude further north and I have a vastly different perception. I view the long stretches of no precip (either CAD in winter or WAD in summer) seemingly regardless of ENSO state as the overarching issue.

[sbnwx85]

It's been a rough stretch for most of us. I moved back to South Bend in Spring of 2018 after the city got 93.1" the previous winter. Needless to say I was pumped to get back to frequent cold and snow. It's now been six winters in a row of below normal snowfall. The worst was last season with just 30.3". It was the least snow in a winter since 1948-1949 with 24.2". This is also the longest stretch of below normal snow in a row since the late 1940's in South Bend.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Here are the top 10 SDD winters for DTW from 1959-1960 to 2012-2013, inclusive. These values are valid for DTW only, and may differ some from the threaded record prior to 1966. I wanted to maintain location consistency for this analysis.

• 1981-82, 528
• 1977-78, 514
• 2010-11, 494
• 1998-99, 391
• 2008-09, 382
• 2000-01, 333
• 1984-85, 309
• 1974-75, 297
• 1975-76, 285
• 1966-67, 277

Here are the 10 lowest SDD counts for that same time frame:

• 1988-89, 34
• 1979-80, 35
• 1982-83, 36
• 2011-12, 44
• 1971-72, 47
• 1960-61, 53
• 1965-66, 63
• 2001-02, 66
• 1995-96, 66
• 1968-69, 67

Good data. I will work on the rest of it. I have the pre-1948 snow depth as well, for some reason its not in xmacis.

As expected...2013-14 was the winner, with an INSANE number of 923! This is 409 MORE than the vaunted winter of 1977-78. And 2014-15 actually comes in 2nd place with 574.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Im as big of a snowlover as anyone but you get used to the disappointment. It's also been nice to be a snowbird and not be around for the recent years of boredom. Perhaps you need to get away from the cold for a bit if you can.

Interesting. I never pegged you as a snowlover. I pegged you as liking a good storm and then being done with it lol.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

After 8 bad winters in a row, there are reasons to be frustrated, right?

Most of the winters since the record smashing SDDs of 2013-15 have been ok here, at least climo wise, with 1 really good winter (2017-18) and several good stretches, but definitely not great overall. I had to peak at data, and Im shocked how much worse Chicago did than Detroit in 2017-18. Wasnt a terrible winter, but definitely not beavis worthy. Although ill say, Chicago had a good winter in 2020-21. Again, not beavis worthy, but very deep snow in Feb.