Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

23 minutes ago, DocATL said:

I mean we hope for this. Siberia is unusual mild at the moment. Judah Cohen thinks the core of the cold in January goes to Western Europe. We stay mild which isn’t a dealbreaker but who knows.

we're all fighting over scraps at this point

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Lock it in. If you want snow, head north my friends.

[DocATL]

we're all fighting over scraps at this point

lol it’s wild. I’m praying for an inch like I did in the southeast. At least it gets cold enough to snow. As I say that the GEFS has Chicago above freezing for nearly 10 straight days!

[DocATL]

Lock it in. If you want snow, head north my friends.

The Illinois Wisconsin border has become quite a snowshield lol


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[SchaumburgStormer]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Been trying to warn folks, the forced bamwx optimism was cringe imo

Ready for some 60s

[CheeselandSkies]

Recent stretch of GFS runs has had a signal that says watch out for chances between Christmas and New Year's...could be anywhere from the Deep South to Iowa at this point.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, DocATL said:

I mean we hope for this. Siberia is unusual mild at the moment. Judah Cohen thinks the core of the cold in January goes to Western Europe. We stay mild which isn’t a dealbreaker but who knows.

My bad. I left out forecasted temps for Siberia. Actually shows in the EPs Run the negative departures there then.

[Stevo6899]

3 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Lock it in. If you want snow, head north my friends.

The ole vanishes by time it reaches michigan clipper.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

The ole vanishes by time it reaches michigan clipper.

Confluence to the east due to a coastal, it makes sense. If the coastal is weaker though it may not fall apart as quickly.

[DocATL]

Always learn something from Eric. Good info about the incoming blowtorch.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869018465316593852?s=46


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[Frog Town]

58 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Confluence to the east due to a coastal, it makes sense. If the coastal is weaker though it may not fall apart as quickly.

Fingers crossed in the vanishing zone!  Models have been back and forth with said confluence.  Today's 12Z Euro says less of it! 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Confluence to the east due to a coastal, it makes sense. If the coastal is weaker though it may not fall apart as quickly.

I was wondering why it was weakening. I knew it was something lol. Although still looks good for a little snow here, which will be festive for the week leading up top Christmas.

[Maxim]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Always learn something from Eric. Good info about the incoming blowtorch.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869018465316593852?s=46


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Seems like this will have serious implications for the rest of winter.

[Stebo]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was wondering why it was weakening. I knew it was something lol. Although still looks good for a little snow here, which will be festive for the week leading up top Christmas.

It's looking like a 1-2" at this point. It still runs out of gas considerably compared to NW of here.

[michsnowfreak]

43 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It's looking like a 1-2" at this point. It still runs out of gas considerably compared to NW of here.

Oh I know. But 1-2" is better than nothing. Nice way to kick off the winter solstice. So far this season, DTW has had 7 days with 1" of snow on the ground, another 6 days with a T, but no depth of 2" or greater yet. 

[Frog Town]

46 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It's looking like a 1-2" at this point. It still runs out of gas considerably compared to NW of here.

Good to have you back Stebo!  Nice changes in the ENS regarding Winters return around the new year, no? 

[Stebo]

10 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Good to have you back Stebo!  Nice changes in the ENS regarding Winters return around the new year, no? 

I won't bite until I see consistency, plus we still need it west of where its showing now. That has more of the current cold but dry look.

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Good to have you back Stebo!  Nice changes in the ENS regarding Winters return around the new year, no? 

The warm up doesn't look to last too long. Im not worried about the cold returning. I'm just more concerned we get into a more active pattern. 

[Snowstorms]

16 hours ago, DocATL said:

Punt to later in January. Not winter entirely. It’s gonna take a while to find cold from here:




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Agreed. Plus the lack of sea ice in Hudson Bay and near Baffin Island is really concerning. Doesn't bode well for any sustained cold in the East anytime soon. And a 5 day cool down later this week won't help with the torch expected later next week. 

Our best chance for any sustained winter is likely mid Jan. 

 

[Chicago Storm]

the key here is, if neither i nor ohweather are talking up something interesting, there's nothing to see for our region.

sure, there's thread the needle patterns here and there, but many of you want more than that.

[Baum]

32 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

the key here is, if neither i nor ohweather are talking up something interesting, there's nothing to see for our region.

sure, there's thread the needle patterns here and there, but many of you want more than that.

 

[dmc76]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I know. But 1-2" is better than nothing. Nice way to kick off the winter solstice. So far this season, DTW has had 7 days with 1" of snow on the ground, another 6 days with a T, but no depth of 2" or greater yet. 

Omg Josh! That’s a true definition of putting lipstick on a piece of turd! 

[beavis1729]

44 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Omg Josh! That’s a true definition of putting lipstick on a piece of turd! 

“Thank you, sir, for only punching me in the face instead of kicking me in the ****!” 

Not that it matters, but ORD is much worse than DTW. Zero days of 1” snow cover. 

[Stevo6899]

 

51 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Omg Josh! That’s a true definition of putting lipstick on a piece of turd! 

You're better off just ignoring it. If you engage, Josh will turd polish you into submission until you tap out. Lions could use him on the defense.

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

the key here is, if neither i nor ohweather are talking up something interesting, there's nothing to see for our region.

sure, there's thread the needle patterns here and there, but many of you want more than that.

Guess we won't be seeing y'all until after new years then...

[buckeye]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I know. But 1-2" is better than nothing. Nice way to kick off the winter solstice. So far this season, DTW has had 7 days with 1" of snow on the ground, another 6 days with a T, but no depth of 2" or greater yet. 

You sound like an ole fashioned CMH snow weenie…

…it’s happening Josh…you’re in denial right now but fear not, the next stage is acceptance

[DocATL]

Guess we won't be seeing y'all until after new years then...

Was thinking MLK weekend. Happy New Year!!

[DocATL]

the key here is, if neither i nor ohweather are talking up something interesting, there's nothing to see for our region.
sure, there's thread the needle patterns here and there, but many of you want more than that.

Thread the needle threats are a welcome change compared to the tundra we just endured.


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[dmc76]

14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

You sound like an ole fashioned CMH snow weenie…

…it’s happening Josh…you’re in denial right now but fear not, the next stage is acceptance

It’s lake effect dusting southeast Michigan style it’s not like we had mountains on the side of the road. It’s not like the grass was completely covered. We’re talking a dusting that’s just stuck around.

[dmc76]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

 

You're better off just ignoring it. If you engage, Josh will turd polish you into submission until you tap out. Lions could use him on the defense.

Nah me and Josh are cool. We’re just waiting for the real storms.