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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion


michsnowfreak
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53 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

2013-14 is Columbus' 2nd snowiest winter on record with 56.4". Only 1909-10 saw more. Interestingly, while it was a cold winter there as well, it wasnt nearly as cold relative to normal as up here, ranking only as Columbus 28th coldest on record.

I do think you are remembering the storm of Dec 21/22, 2013. Columbus saw temps soar to 69F with 2.17" of rain (a half inch of snow did fall Christmas Eve however). Up here, we had rain and freezing rain, with a bad ice storm JUST to my north. What was interesting about it here, was that we had snow on the ground continuously from Dec 8 - Mar 29, but what had been an 8-inch snowpack whittled away to patches and piles on Dec 23rd and lasted for a few days. While Christmas had frozen patches, piles, and a fresh dusting, it wasnt an official White Christmas (we had T depth). Those few late Dec days centered on Christmas were the only such days we would see any grass until late mid-late March. 

 

 

Thats the worst ice storm I've ever experienced (Dec 21/22 2013) tons of damage and power outages 

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1 hour ago, DocATL said:

18z Euro has us in the 50’s with late spring-like storms on the 16th. Can’t make this stuff up.

Been wondering what with the incoming (delayed) La Nina if the other shoe would drop and we would see a bona fide late fall/met winter :twister:outbreak or 2 a la 2021. These last few troughs have struggled with lack of moisture return and/or maturing too late, becoming negatively tilted only just before the warm sector pushes completely off the east coast.

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Some duster+ chances around the 19th but def not the most exciting medium range 

I may be in the minority here but that’s the pattern I want. A little pacific energy, a bit more western flow, cold not frigid, nickel and dime events that are enjoyable yet manageable.
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17 minutes ago, DocATL said:


I may be in the minority here but that’s the pattern I want. A little pacific energy, a bit more western flow, cold not frigid, nickel and dime events that are enjoyable yet manageable.


.

Zonal type flow is typically not my favorite in winter, but after this brutal stretch of CAD, any pattern change is an improvement. 

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24 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

There are a few of us downwind of the Great Lakes enjoying this winter so far.  I am over 20" for the winter after last night.

No doubt. Winters for you guys are like instant oatmeal. Instead of just add water; its cold air.

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1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

There are a few of us downwind of the Great Lakes enjoying this winter so far.  I am over 20" for the winter after last night.

Come Monday, it'll all be gone and you'll join the rest of us with a bare brown ground. Sure lake effect is fun but system snow hits different.

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Obviously taken with a grain of salt but the foreseeable future it looks like systems tracking through the Upper Midwest, a stronger one comes through, then it's suppression/east coast track/repeat. All while we sit in between with mist/rain.

Exactly…seems like a tough cycle to break. Weird to think about all the variables that need to come together just to get it to snow in a place like Chicago. I would have never imagined that.
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1 hour ago, Pascy619 said:

The UP in Michigan are the ones who have truly cashed in with this pattern. There are areas approaching 100" for the season already. 

Areas in and around my cottage in Bellaire/Mancelona have 25-30 inches on the ground right now.  While its impressive, it doesn't get me as excited as when it snows down here in the metro area. Also it's not rare for that area to get lake effect but usually its more towards the lake that gets these bigger amounts, and not so much around Bellaire over to gaylord

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15 minutes ago, Reb said:

Hoping for some snow in Columbus on the 21st. We are making the trip from Knoxville for the Buckeyes/Vols game. Looks to be trending colder with each passing model run.

GFS has had a lake-effect signal for the Notre Dame game on the 20th the last several runs. That would be pretty neat.

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22 minutes ago, Reb said:

Hoping for some snow in Columbus on the 21st. We are making the trip from Knoxville for the Buckeyes/Vols game. Looks to be trending colder with each passing model run.

I'll be there as well. No you do not want it to be that cold, the horseshoe shape tunnels the wind. Bring the long johns!

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36 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I'll be there as well. No you do not want it to be that cold, the horseshoe shape tunnels the wind. Bring the long johns!

I’ve got all the gear ready. Vols coat, thermal undershirt, t shirt, hoodie, insulated long johns, fleece lined pants, carhartt face shield, Vols beanie, winter gloves, boots, hand warmers.

 

I’ll be sitting in 17d under the box, so that should block a lot of the wind…but I’ll be prepared either way. Hopefully no scuff ups with Buckeye fans! Looking forward to taking in the traditions.

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6 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

There are a few of us downwind of the Great Lakes enjoying this winter so far.  I am over 20" for the winter after last night.

Most of our 4.0" this season is lake effect, obviously outside the belts. Other nearby areas have done better. Plenty of days with flakes have made a nice atmosphere in an otherwise zzz pattern, but time to get some synoptic snow in here!

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2 hours ago, DocATL said:


Exactly…seems like a tough cycle to break. Weird to think about all the variables that need to come together just to get it to snow in a place like Chicago. I would have never imagined that.

There's been hardly any synoptic snow anywhere yet this winter, so I wouldn't call anything a cycle really. This young winter has been all about LES, and that's something Chicago rarely cashes in on. Period of 19th - 22nd may have something, but wayyy too early to do anything other than speculate.

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GRR with the medium-long range tease.  I think we all know how this will end though.

We are looking at yet another system on Wednesday into Thursday that
could become interesting. We have another southern stream system
that will be lifting up to our south. At the same time, a northern
stream trough will be diving in across the Midwest. How these
systems interact with each other will dictate everything. If they
phase, we could be looking at a bigger storm. If they come in
separate, they will not be as impactful.
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There's been hardly any synoptic snow anywhere yet this winter, so I wouldn't call anything a cycle really. This young winter has been all about LES, and that's something Chicago rarely cashes in on. Period of 19th - 22nd may have something, but wayyy too early to do anything other than speculate.

There’s been clipper activity to the north and the south. I know that’s a roll of the dice though. The 19th-22nd look like quick hitters. Cold chasing moisture. A strong quick cold press with suppression and then everything goes quiet. Weird. GEFS ensemble means are paltry and favor LES. All in all December may shake out to BN over all. Many of us outside the snow belt would have preferred a torch.


.
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14 minutes ago, DocATL said:


There’s been clipper activity to the north and the south. I know that’s a roll of the dice though. The 19th-22nd look like quick hitters. Cold chasing moisture. A strong quick cold press with suppression and then everything goes quiet. Weird. GEFS ensemble means are paltry and favor LES. All in all December may shake out to BN over all. Many of us outside the snow belt would have preferred a torch.


.

Preferred a torch.....uh....no!

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