Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[King James]

Bad is good at this stage of the game. We are down 20 with 2 minutes on the clock. Best play is to beat the traffic and get to spring. I don’t need to see the end of this one.

[DocATL]

Bad is good at this stage of the game. We are down 20 with 2 minutes on the clock. Best play is to beat the traffic and get to spring. I don’t need to see the end of this one.

Yeah…how about some more northwest flow instead of spring? Sadly we have more of that coming.


.

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Some historian can correct me if I'm wrong but our biggest snow storm in recorded history for NW OH was in early March some time in the early 1900's after a very similar winter to what we currently in.  It was something like 20"+.    Not that I want that crap in March only to watch it melt away in a few days.  

It was march 1 1900

[Frog Town]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was march 1 1900

Thank you!  I thought you might know.  

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Thank you!  I thought you might know.  

Look at Detroit's #1 - 2 footer in April!

[DocATL]

Are we interested in the GEFS snow mean or nah?

[Chicago916]

47 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Are we interested in the GEFS snow mean or nah?

Only mean SCP

[DocATL]

Only mean SCP

I think by mid March for sure.


.

[A-L-E-K]

ensembles look bad for those pining for early spring

maybe it's good to get the cold out of the way now, idk

p sick of the nw flow era tbh

[DocATL]

ensembles look bad for those pining for early spring
maybe it's good to get the cold out of the way now, idk
p sick of the nw flow era tbh

Makes you long for corn sweat.

[TheNiño]

I’m done. Bring me spring and thunder and stuff. 

 

[A-L-E-K]

16 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Makes you long for corn sweat.

did we even have an 80 degree dew at ord last summer?

[roardog]

29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

ensembles look bad for those pining for early spring

maybe it's good to get the cold out of the way now, idk

p sick of the nw flow era tbh

Early March is generally pretty useless for real warmth even down in your neck of the woods so you’re probably not missing too much. You would think it should at least come with quite a bit of sun. 

[Maxim]

First week of March doesn't look nearly as cold all of a sudden. Again, long-range modeling/forecasting is shit in general and shouldn't be taken very seriously (for now).

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Early March is generally pretty useless for real warmth even down in your neck of the woods so you’re probably not missing too much. You would think it should at least come with quite a bit of sun. 

I have lived here too long.  March in general is pretty useless for real warmth around here.  I don't look for solid snow chances to really end until early/mid-April though it does occasionally get into early May. 

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, Lightning said:

I have lived here too long.  March in general is pretty useless for real warmth around here.  I don't look for solid snow chances to really end until early/mid-April though it does occasionally get into early May. 

I think it was 2017 when there was a day in mid May that had some heavy snow showers around that even managed to whiten the ground for a few minutes. 

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I think it was 2017 when there was a day in mid May that had some heavy snow showers around that even managed to whiten the ground for a few minutes. 

Oh I remember that day.  Don't recall exactly when. 

It seems in our area that after April 10th snow chances really drop (one big exception was 2005) and after May 10th a freeze chance really drops.

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzz

[DocATL]

Being done with this arctic air is a huge win. I think we are done with single digit lows for the season


.

[Stevo6899]

Maybe we'll hit the jackpot and a super clipper drops down and delivers for us..

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Being done with this arctic air is a huge win. I think we are done with single digit lows for the season


.

Your new around here  .    I wouldn't count on it!

[DocATL]

Your new around here  .    I wouldn't count on it!

More single digit lows to come?? Man that would be something…and depressing.


.

[A-L-E-K]

guessing i'm done with single digits but wouldn't bet on it obv

[Jackstraw]

On 2/20/2025 at 9:05 AM, TheNiño said:

I’m done. Bring me spring and thunder and stuff. 

 

Haven't had Spring thunder (besides a passing rumbler) around here for at least 4 years. For that matter haven't had Summer thunder (besides above) for about 4 years either. I can prove it by the date on my dogs Xanax bottle. That Thunder Ice back in January was the best (and loudest) light show in years. Been nothing but serious fizzle domes above me in like forever. 

[madwx]

If we’re looking medium range, there will likely be a brief cold shot next weekend and then another one toward the end of the week after.  Otherwise things should be slightly above average.  
 

A switch to SW flow and more mild conditions around mid month look on track

[Maxim]

Nearly every long-range ensemble I've seen is showing a very warm pattern nationally starting around mid-March. Normally I wouldn't put too much stock into it because it's so far out, but the consistency has been remarkable (can't ever recall such consistency as this range), and has been trending warmer in recent days.

[Maxim]

Someone really needs to fix the twitter embed issue on this site, but anyway, Eric Webb seems to think this advertised, noteworthy pattern change is legit.
 

 

[nwohweather]

8 hours ago, Maxim said:

Nearly every long-range ensemble I've seen is showing a very warm pattern nationally starting around mid-March. Normally I wouldn't put too much stock into it because it's so far out, but the consistency has been remarkable (can't ever recall such consistency as this range), and has been trending warmer in recent days.

It’s beyond needed. One of the coldest winters here in quite some time, a thaw is okay by me