buckeye Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/9/2025 at 1:54 AM, Stevo6899 said: Back to back to back home runs on the euro. Probably will never see a run like that again locally, 40+ in 9 day span. don't get too excited, this was a euro op run five days ago. Amazing how quickly 36.7" of snow can disappear. Don't even get me started on the ensembles either. They have been horrible. Consistent runs across the board from ggem, euro, and gfs all showing 20"+ for mby over the 360hr run, (multiple times last week). Incredible how bad they are. I am glad to see our sub finally cashing in further north and west, even though cmh continues to miss south, north, and east. At least it's not the eastcoast getting it this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: don't get too excited, this was a euro op run five days ago. Amazing how quickly 36.7" of snow can disappear. Don't even get me started on the ensembles either. They have been horrible. Consistent runs across the board from ggem, euro, and gfs all showing 20"+ for mby over the 360hr run, (multiple times last week). Incredible how bad they are. I am glad to see our sub finally cashing in further north and west, even though cmh continues to miss south, north, and east. At least it's not the eastcoast getting it this time. Trust me I don't take anything these models show seriously. Of the three home runs I'll take a half of one, 6 inch storm and call it a winter and try again in 8 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 While my area is still in play for a winter storm Wed night and again Saturday, its looking like the Wed storm stands a good chance to drop its heavier snow to my west giving areas like Chicago, who have had a shittier winter than here, a bigger snowstorm than we have seen yet this season. Its the weather and it does what it wants, but this is why I get so annoyed at the posts where some act like the pattern will never change, a storm will never hit their area, season futility talk in January, etc etc. Just not how weather works, and its proven time and time again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: While my area is still in play for a winter storm Wed night and again Saturday, its looking like the Wed storm stands a good chance to drop its heavier snow to my west giving areas like Chicago, who have had a shittier winter than here, a bigger snowstorm than we have seen yet this season. Its the weather and it does what it wants, but this is why I get so annoyed at the posts where some act like the pattern will never change, a storm will never hit their area, season futility talk in January, etc etc. Just not how weather works, and its proven time and time again. I was all aboard the futility train for sure. Taking 3.6" of snow into almost mid Feb, there was a legit shot at attaining the all-time low snowfall with how horrible things had been going. I'm just glad we aren't going to nickel and dime our way to just above the futility record like I had feared. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 27 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I was all aboard the futility train for sure. Taking 3.6" of snow into almost mid Feb, there was a legit shot at attaining the all-time low snowfall with how horrible things had been going. I'm just glad we aren't going to nickel and dime our way to just above the futility record like I had feared. Oops I thought I posted that in the banter/complaint thread, my bad . To be clear...your area was one of the worst so far, and i have NO gripes with people complaining about a shitty winter. And I certainly wasn't implying you. You've had an amazing calm actually with the way your winter has gone. My main irritant is the "it'll never snow here again" type dramatics that some post, even if joking. This is the only place a weather nerd has to go to escape the circus that social media weather pages have become, not to mention normies refreshing the weather app on their phone, calling it the weather channel, and saying matter of factly that their phone ap has already explained the weather lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/3/2025 at 12:20 PM, madwx said: starting to see some trends for the month of Feb. People who know more can expand and correct me. There will be some high latitude blocking that will give the Polar Vortex a jolt in about a week. Alongside a -AO/-NAO we will likely get a longwave trough in the E/C US. With increased warmth to the SE there will be storms tracking along the baroclinic zone which should give some chances of snow. The SE ridge will not be very strong though, so I wouldn't expect major storms tracking through our region. What will be likely though is below normal temps from about 2/10-2/24. At this time it's not guaranteed that we will have a SSW or have a split polar vortex, in fact there are signs that the disruption will be short lived and the PV will bounce back to strong levels. This means that the cold and blocking would not be favored to last into the month of March. Feel pretty good about this so far, the storm track has been a bit further north than I expected but the cold will last through about the 23rd. Looking for mild air to flood the country after that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/9/2025 at 12:35 PM, Chicago WX said: Nah, north of your line is in play too. Just loop the ensembles. GEFS, EPS, etc. It's a pretty good parade of systems coming through our region every 3-4-5 days. Just taking the 12z EPS through 9/10 days: it's this coming Wednesday, next weekend, and then next Tuesday/Wednesday. Details TBD, but I think quite a few us are in play for good snowfall in the next couple of weeks. Just takes one to phase in a piece or good chunk of the PV, and it's boom. No guarantees on that of course, but it's not improbable. Next weekend on the 12z EPS. Pretty good agreement. Granted we would like the mean farther northwest a bit, but there are left leaners. This sorta kinda worked out. Systems themselves weren't noteworthy, but the EPS flagged them pretty well. 6" total IMBY. Wished they would've been better. Looks like the last of the 3 will be the biggest dog of them all, as MO, southern 1/2 or 1/3 of IL/IN/OH look to grab a pretty good snowstorm this week. Funny how the "southern" storms tend to work out well this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If only we could dodge the cold air following like the snow. The advisory layout somewhat mimics crudely the areas affected the most by these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 In the category of it will never happen the 12Z UKMET tries to get ALEK close to his seasonal norms. Enjoy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The big change to a much more active pattern is going to result in exactly one snow event for my area. It was a pretty decent one (7"), but it appears that is all we are going to get out of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 yes this big "active" pattern change was not much (4-5 inches on ground from Wednesday and last night) this weekend is a miss east and midweek is a miss south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Sunday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:48 PM The low producing a nice snow storm to our south next week might also produce a decent lake response Wednesday night but I’m not going to hold my breath at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted Monday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:09 PM I'm starting to feel personally victimized 3 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Monday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:25 PM 23 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: The low producing a nice snow storm to our south next week might also produce a decent lake response Wednesday night but I’m not going to hold my breath at this point. Starting to hold my breath. IWX is paying attention to it. Seems like more could go right than wrong for once this winter. “Somewhat greater concern for a more pronounced lake effect band setting up Wed night into Thursday with 925 mb streamlines and 850 mb omega fields all suggesting strong convergence down the long (major) axis of Lake MI as well as a connection to Lake Superior. These bands can be prolific snow producers and extend well inland. A lot of details to sort out in the coming days with final track of upper level and sfc features all key to the final alignment of the band. Also, unlike the current LES setup, the DGZ will climb to a more typical level and may reside near the top of or just above the best lift. Also, quality/depth of the moisture may be somewhat limited. Pops and potential snow amounts remain very conservative at this point, but something to monitor.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted Monday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:26 PM 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I'm starting to feel personally victimized Are we at the "it ain't fair" point yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted Monday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:39 PM None of this even comes close to verifying so I wouldn't feel too ripped off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted Monday at 09:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:51 PM 11 minutes ago, Frog Town said: None of this even comes close to verifying so I wouldn't feel too ripped off. the 0.4 over Chicago will!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted Monday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:09 PM 2 hours ago, bowtie` said: Are we at the "it ain't fair" point yet? Should blow that up and frame it. Winter 24-25 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted Tuesday at 12:05 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:05 AM 5 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I'm starting to feel personally victimized Really “squaring in” on the suck zone for this winter. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Tuesday at 11:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:11 AM lol not our year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Tuesday at 11:40 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:40 AM 28 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: lol not our year or decade. I am ready for spring once we hit March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Tuesday at 11:49 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:49 AM i had a dog a few years back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted Tuesday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:08 PM 14 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Really “squaring in” on the suck zone for this winter. There was a similar screw hole depicted on one of these maps a couple winters ago except it was triangular, I called it the "Bermuda Triangle of Snow." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM 14 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Really “squaring in” on the suck zone for this winter. 22 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: There was a similar screw hole depicted on one of these maps a couple winters ago except it was triangular, I called it the "Bermuda Triangle of Snow." Holding out for the rhombus of ridiculous 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Tuesday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:10 PM Dear sweet baby snow Jesus, I see what you have done for others and I pray you do this for me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM Euro spitting out a solution that 100% won’t verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted Tuesday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:17 PM Some historian can correct me if I'm wrong but our biggest snow storm in recorded history for NW OH was in early March some time in the early 1900's after a very similar winter to what we currently in. It was something like 20"+. Not that I want that crap in March only to watch it melt away in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM 7 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Some historian can correct me if I'm wrong but our biggest snow storm in recorded history for NW OH was in early March some time in the early 1900's after a very similar winter to what we currently in. It was something like 20"+. Not that I want that crap in March only to watch it melt away in a few days. One of, if not the largest snowstorm in SE Ohio was in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Wednesday at 11:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:33 AM it's bad folks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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