Stebo Posted Saturday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:27 PM The system next weekend on the GFS is the most nonsensical thing I have seen 16-22 here in temp and sleet/freezing rain. That system even has 700mb temps near or above 0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: The system next weekend on the GFS is the most nonsensical thing I have seen 16-22 here in temp and sleet/freezing rain. That system even has 700mb temps near or above 0°. Fixed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted Saturday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:59 PM 32 minutes ago, Stebo said: The system next weekend on the GFS is the most nonsensical thing I have seen 16-22 here in temp and sleet/freezing rain. That system even has 700mb temps near or above 0°. While improbable, not impossible. I recall one storm in early January 1999, I think around the 2nd or 3rd, where precipitation started as snow but we had sleet with temperatures around or even slightly below 10F and freezing rain in the teens, although temperatures eventually climbed to around freezing or slightly above. There may have even been some lightning and thunder. That was crazy stretch in general with about three feet of snow that month, most falling in about 15 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Saturday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:00 PM Of course, just as the GFS goes bonkers with next weekend's system, the Euro goes the other way and is now progressive and weak until it gets to the northeast US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted Saturday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:02 PM 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Of course, just as the GFS goes bonkers with next weekend's system, the Euro goes the other way and is now progressive and weak until it gets to the northeast US. To be honest I wouldn't even look past hour 100 anymore on the models especially in this complex pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted Saturday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:18 PM 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Of course, just as the GFS goes bonkers with next weekend's system, the Euro goes the other way and is now progressive and weak until it gets to the northeast US. 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: To be honest I wouldn't even look past hour 100 anymore on the models especially in this complex pattern. Sadly the model just are not that good especially at the surface in the mid/extended for this area. The past few years I personally have treat anything they show at the surface beyond 60 hours is just pure . Like playing the lotto; you know your not going to win but just the daytime dreaming of winning it is why many play it! The main thing I get is that this is going to be more active than we seen all winter and there is definitely potential for some decent events!! Much better odds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Saturday at 06:55 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:55 PM Ensembles are absolutely lit up for the next few weeks. This is where the ceiling is raised. January with it's frequent flakes but dry cold got a pass because it was at least wintry and white and was clearly not a stormy pattern. But the coming weeks look like lots of action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted Sunday at 06:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:54 AM Back to back to back home runs on the euro. Probably will never see a run like that again locally, 40+ in 9 day span. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted Sunday at 07:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 07:13 AM 18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Back to back to back home runs on the euro. Probably will never see a run like that again locally, 40+ in 9 day span. Kuchera maps have us at almost 60+ in the next 11 days. Insane run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted Sunday at 12:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:15 PM This is like hitting black jack 7 hands in a row. Hovering the cursor, there's a 61" showing up in and around the LAF. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted Sunday at 12:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:24 PM It could never snow again if the Euro was anywhere close to verifying. That would crush January 2014 by a huge margin. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted Sunday at 12:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:53 PM Craziness! Even if 25-50% of that verified would be epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM Called it https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/topic?url=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61317-winter-2024-25-mediumlong-range-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=7603174&share_tid=61317&share_pid=7603174&share_fid=13197&share_type=t&link_source=app Now models are punting the chance of any real snow until mid February. A few more punts are we'll be moving on to spring. Prepare for a blizzard Feb 16-19. I am going to Tampa for work that week.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM 4 hours ago, Chicago WX said: This is like hitting black jack 7 hands in a row. Hovering the cursor, there's a 61" showing up in and around the LAF. Being the Euro at least I have a chance it could happen. If it was the GFS it would be a flat 0% chance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Sunday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:56 PM Once again, for next weekend's system, models are trending toward turning the flow out of Canada and suppressing the storm. There has been too much of that this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted Sunday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:06 PM 12 Euro with another super stormy and snowy pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted Sunday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:16 PM I think from Kankakee to South Bend to Detroit and points SE into OV upcoming pattern looks promising. Maybe metro Chicago gets some lake enhancement to amp up totals especially for 12th-13th system.Would like to see an amped up system moving from Terre Haute to Indy to DTW but not seeing op models show that so far. Maybe ens have some stronger solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted Sunday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:18 PM 12Z GEFS total for run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted Sunday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:22 PM 24 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Once again, for next weekend's system, models are trending toward turning the flow out of Canada and suppressing the storm. There has been too much of that this winter. I think at this point the important thing is that the storms are still on the models. Obviously details to be figured out at a later date. I could see how anybody say west of Chicago would have some pessimism but since we're entering a new pattern who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted Sunday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:35 PM 41 minutes ago, Cary67 said: I think from Kankakee to South Bend to Detroit and points SE into OV upcoming pattern looks promising. Maybe metro Chicago gets some lake enhancement to amp up totals especially for 12th-13th system.Would like to see an amped up system moving from Terre Haute to Indy to DTW but not seeing op models show that so far. Maybe ens have some stronger solutions? Nah, north of your line is in play too. Just loop the ensembles. GEFS, EPS, etc. It's a pretty good parade of systems coming through our region every 3-4-5 days. Just taking the 12z EPS through 9/10 days: it's this coming Wednesday, next weekend, and then next Tuesday/Wednesday. Details TBD, but I think quite a few us are in play for good snowfall in the next couple of weeks. Just takes one to phase in a piece or good chunk of the PV, and it's boom. No guarantees on that of course, but it's not improbable. Next weekend on the 12z EPS. Pretty good agreement. Granted we would like the mean farther northwest a bit, but there are left leaners. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted Sunday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:14 PM Nah, north of your line is in play too. Just loop the ensembles. GEFS, EPS, etc. It's a pretty good parade of systems coming through our region every 3-4-5 days. Just taking the 12z EPS through 9/10 days: it's this coming Wednesday, next weekend, and then next Tuesday/Wednesday. Details TBD, but I think quite a few us are in play for good snowfall in the next couple of weeks. Just takes one to phase in a piece or good chunk of the PV, and it's boom. No guarantees on that of course, but it's not improbable. Next weekend on the 12z EPS. Pretty good agreement. Granted we would like the mean farther northwest a bit, but there are left leaners. Good voice of reason today Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted Sunday at 10:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:30 PM Woof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM So who's starting the next thread? Already only like ~120 out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Sunday at 11:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:13 PM 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: So who's starting the next thread? Already only like ~120 out The Climate Changer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Spartman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 6z GEFS total run snowfall mean is up to 18.0" over downtown Chicago. Pretty large area of 6"+ really. Hopefully everyone gets a taste in the coming 2 weeks. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Not even sure this is worth posting, but one can always dream. The 12z ICON really goes to town across E IA, S WI, N IL, thru MI with the weekend system. This would be the *weenie* totals from both systems this week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 41 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Not even sure this is worth posting, but one can always dream. The 12z ICON really goes to town across E IA, S WI, N IL, thru MI with the weekend system. This would be the *weenie* totals from both systems this week. ICON, ICON, ICON!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Canadian and ICON, what could go wrong? Again, this is *weenie* total for both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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