Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SchaumburgStormer]

16 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Alright, after I post this I'm gonna stay off the internet for the next 15 days, and assume that what is on the map pic below will in fact happen when we get there.  

 

 

[Malacka11]

My bday is the 11th. I will reel one in.

[ILSNOW]

I will take the 12z Euro!

[A-L-E-K]

Eps look good, p wet, cold enough

[nvck]

Seeing some pretty interesting discrepancies with the Euro & GFS for the Weds night/Thurs morning system. Euro and it's ensembles bring a pretty significant ice-storm to most of Michigan, and have the low center around the IL/IN border at 6z on thursday. The gfs and gefs, on the other hand, have the low centered around OH/KY/IN at that same time, with not much precip making it up this way. The euro solution also appears to be significantly deeper as well. (1004mb compared to the gefs' 1012mb).

fwiw, the CMC ensemble basically just goes between the other two, lol.

[Chinook]

This one is kind of crazy. The ECMWF tends to have moments when it tries to resolve convection but it can't. Nevertheless, chances for rain/freezing rain are there in a few days.

[CheeselandSkies]

What is this? An actual signal for a system? This, sir, is the winter of 2024-'25! THIS SHALL NOT STAND!

...in all seriousness, it won't verify but that amount of ice depicted would be catastrophic. The region desperately needs precipitation in any form.

[Jackstraw]

On 1/31/2025 at 10:39 AM, michsnowfreak said:

I agree 100%. I dont care how many more models there are, how many improvements have been made etc etc, but I have been following the weather models for about 25 years and at the end of the day, predicting weather for mby is NO better/easier now than 25 years ago. Someone will rush to the defense of, well, this and this and this is why things went wrong. But we hear that nearly every season, every year. The end result is the same. The way this winter has played out through January is not even CLOSE to what was forecast. If anything, its about as opposite as you can get. 

As an example, here is what a typical forecast for January (heavily Nina factored) was in the Fall. Precip above to well above avg, snowfall avg to above avg, temps avg to above but with wild swings. Multiple storms/thaws producing some heavy snow but not sustained snowcover.  Instead we get precip well below avg, snowfall below avg, temps below avg and sustained (albeit light) snowcover.

See my Sig line quote from Stebo many moons ago lmao 

[RogueWaves]

10 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Funny post, but the EC actually doubled-down today, lol

[Radtechwxman]

0z gfs miss after miss after miss south. Man I hope we can cash in on this active pattern. Been the least snowiest winter I can remember. 

[TheNiño]

4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What is this? An actual signal for a system? This, sir, is the winter of 2024-'25! THIS SHALL NOT STAND!

...in all seriousness, it won't verify but that amount of ice depicted would be catastrophic. The region desperately needs precipitation in any form.

 

[RCNYILWX]

Might be worth starting a thread for the Wednesday system. Giving me vibes of the Feb 2019 ice storm (surface pattern is reminiscent to the observed pattern from our event recap page for 2/11-12/19). The GFS is slowly but surely starting to come around to the ECMWF/EPS idea. Also the EPS has lost a lot of the farther north surface low track members.

This is important because the surface evolution is such that the warm front will remain well south until Wednesday evening, and then the track somewhere across the southern LOT CWA could very well prevent some places across interior northern IL from ever getting above freezing.

If you compare the past several Euro runs, there's been consistency on a swath of 0.25-0.5"+ estimated FRAM output within the DVN, LOT, MKX CWAs and then extending into lower Michigan. Also noted in the AFD, the 00z and 06z EPS had 60-80% probs of >0.1"+ ice accums near and north of I-80.

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[sbnwx85]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Might be worth starting a thread for the Wednesday system. Giving me vibes of the Feb 2019 ice storm (surface pattern is reminiscent to the observed pattern from our event recap page for 2/11-12/19). The GFS is slowly but surely starting to come around to the ECMWF/EPS idea. Also the EPS has lost a lot of the farther north surface low track members.

This is important because the surface evolution is such that the warm front will remain well south until Wednesday evening, and then the track somewhere across the southern LOT CWA could very well prevent some places across interior northern IL from ever getting above freezing.

If you compare the past several Euro runs, there's been consistency on a swath of 0.25-0.5"+ estimated FRAM output within the DVN, LOT, MKX CWAs and then extending into lower Michigan. Also noted in the AFD, the 00z and 06z EPS had 60-80% probs of >0.1"+ ice accums near and north of I-80.

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What are your thoughts on the northern parts of IWX? Looking more and more icy here to my amateur eye, plus I don’t have access to FRAM data. 

[Cary67]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Might be worth starting a thread for the Wednesday system. Giving me vibes of the Feb 2019 ice storm (surface pattern is reminiscent to the observed pattern from our event recap page for 2/11-12/19). The GFS is slowly but surely starting to come around to the ECMWF/EPS idea. Also the EPS has lost a lot of the farther north surface low track members.

This is important because the surface evolution is such that the warm front will remain well south until Wednesday evening, and then the track somewhere across the southern LOT CWA could very well prevent some places across interior northern IL from ever getting above freezing.

If you compare the past several Euro runs, there's been consistency on a swath of 0.25-0.5"+ estimated FRAM output within the DVN, LOT, MKX CWAs and then extending into lower Michigan. Also noted in the AFD, the 00z and 06z EPS had 60-80% probs of >0.1"+ ice accums near and north of I-80.

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Not this again

[nvck]

GEFS has trended a little bit stronger, and maybe slightly farther north over the past couple runs, and the EPS has trended stronger, and clustering around Chicago the past several runs. Someone will have to cave soon.... 18z NAM should be interesting, with this system showing up at the end of the run.

[Chicago Storm]

The warm anomaly correlation relaxes, but it still is there a bit.
Things this winter have not been MJO dominated, however, due to the constant re-charge of cold in Canada...Which is a big result of the frequent ridging around/near AK and vicinity (Among other things). Instead, it has sort of been a mix of cooperation between the two and also a battle...with the battle upcoming.

That last part of this is important.

The battle appears to be indeed coming. The look has transitioned from long range to the mid range, and soon to be short range.

[Stevo6899]

Euro with a bowling ball type wave for next weekend. Atleast it seems it's getting a little more active.

[roardog]

The second half of the month is starting to look like we could have some pretty strong high latitude blocking. So maybe we go back to cold and dry again?

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, roardog said:

The second half of the month is starting to look like we could have some pretty strong high latitude blocking. So maybe we go back to cold and dry again?

I'm fine with that if we get a nice snowpack ahead of it

[DocATL]

That last part of this is important.

The battle appears to be indeed coming. The look has transitioned from long range to the mid range, and soon to be short range.

Well at least there’s a battle.


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