SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 16 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Alright, after I post this I'm gonna stay off the internet for the next 15 days, and assume that what is on the map pic below will in fact happen when we get there. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 My bday is the 11th. I will reel one in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 I will take the 12z Euro! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Eps look good, p wet, cold enough 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Seeing some pretty interesting discrepancies with the Euro & GFS for the Weds night/Thurs morning system. Euro and it's ensembles bring a pretty significant ice-storm to most of Michigan, and have the low center around the IL/IN border at 6z on thursday. The gfs and gefs, on the other hand, have the low centered around OH/KY/IN at that same time, with not much precip making it up this way. The euro solution also appears to be significantly deeper as well. (1004mb compared to the gefs' 1012mb). fwiw, the CMC ensemble basically just goes between the other two, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 This one is kind of crazy. The ECMWF tends to have moments when it tries to resolve convection but it can't. Nevertheless, chances for rain/freezing rain are there in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 What is this? An actual signal for a system? This, sir, is the winter of 2024-'25! THIS SHALL NOT STAND! ...in all seriousness, it won't verify but that amount of ice depicted would be catastrophic. The region desperately needs precipitation in any form. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 1/31/2025 at 10:39 AM, michsnowfreak said: I agree 100%. I dont care how many more models there are, how many improvements have been made etc etc, but I have been following the weather models for about 25 years and at the end of the day, predicting weather for mby is NO better/easier now than 25 years ago. Someone will rush to the defense of, well, this and this and this is why things went wrong. But we hear that nearly every season, every year. The end result is the same. The way this winter has played out through January is not even CLOSE to what was forecast. If anything, its about as opposite as you can get. As an example, here is what a typical forecast for January (heavily Nina factored) was in the Fall. Precip above to well above avg, snowfall avg to above avg, temps avg to above but with wild swings. Multiple storms/thaws producing some heavy snow but not sustained snowcover. Instead we get precip well below avg, snowfall below avg, temps below avg and sustained (albeit light) snowcover. See my Sig line quote from Stebo many moons ago lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 10 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Funny post, but the EC actually doubled-down today, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 0z gfs miss after miss after miss south. Man I hope we can cash in on this active pattern. Been the least snowiest winter I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: What is this? An actual signal for a system? This, sir, is the winter of 2024-'25! THIS SHALL NOT STAND! ...in all seriousness, it won't verify but that amount of ice depicted would be catastrophic. The region desperately needs precipitation in any form. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Might be worth starting a thread for the Wednesday system. Giving me vibes of the Feb 2019 ice storm (surface pattern is reminiscent to the observed pattern from our event recap page for 2/11-12/19). The GFS is slowly but surely starting to come around to the ECMWF/EPS idea. Also the EPS has lost a lot of the farther north surface low track members. This is important because the surface evolution is such that the warm front will remain well south until Wednesday evening, and then the track somewhere across the southern LOT CWA could very well prevent some places across interior northern IL from ever getting above freezing.If you compare the past several Euro runs, there's been consistency on a swath of 0.25-0.5"+ estimated FRAM output within the DVN, LOT, MKX CWAs and then extending into lower Michigan. Also noted in the AFD, the 00z and 06z EPS had 60-80% probs of >0.1"+ ice accums near and north of I-80. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Might be worth starting a thread for the Wednesday system. Giving me vibes of the Feb 2019 ice storm (surface pattern is reminiscent to the observed pattern from our event recap page for 2/11-12/19). The GFS is slowly but surely starting to come around to the ECMWF/EPS idea. Also the EPS has lost a lot of the farther north surface low track members. This is important because the surface evolution is such that the warm front will remain well south until Wednesday evening, and then the track somewhere across the southern LOT CWA could very well prevent some places across interior northern IL from ever getting above freezing. If you compare the past several Euro runs, there's been consistency on a swath of 0.25-0.5"+ estimated FRAM output within the DVN, LOT, MKX CWAs and then extending into lower Michigan. Also noted in the AFD, the 00z and 06z EPS had 60-80% probs of >0.1"+ ice accums near and north of I-80. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk What are your thoughts on the northern parts of IWX? Looking more and more icy here to my amateur eye, plus I don’t have access to FRAM data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Might be worth starting a thread for the Wednesday system. Giving me vibes of the Feb 2019 ice storm (surface pattern is reminiscent to the observed pattern from our event recap page for 2/11-12/19). The GFS is slowly but surely starting to come around to the ECMWF/EPS idea. Also the EPS has lost a lot of the farther north surface low track members. This is important because the surface evolution is such that the warm front will remain well south until Wednesday evening, and then the track somewhere across the southern LOT CWA could very well prevent some places across interior northern IL from ever getting above freezing. If you compare the past several Euro runs, there's been consistency on a swath of 0.25-0.5"+ estimated FRAM output within the DVN, LOT, MKX CWAs and then extending into lower Michigan. Also noted in the AFD, the 00z and 06z EPS had 60-80% probs of >0.1"+ ice accums near and north of I-80. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk Not this again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 GEFS has trended a little bit stronger, and maybe slightly farther north over the past couple runs, and the EPS has trended stronger, and clustering around Chicago the past several runs. Someone will have to cave soon.... 18z NAM should be interesting, with this system showing up at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The warm anomaly correlation relaxes, but it still is there a bit. Things this winter have not been MJO dominated, however, due to the constant re-charge of cold in Canada...Which is a big result of the frequent ridging around/near AK and vicinity (Among other things). Instead, it has sort of been a mix of cooperation between the two and also a battle...with the battle upcoming.That last part of this is important.The battle appears to be indeed coming. The look has transitioned from long range to the mid range, and soon to be short range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Euro with a bowling ball type wave for next weekend. Atleast it seems it's getting a little more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The second half of the month is starting to look like we could have some pretty strong high latitude blocking. So maybe we go back to cold and dry again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 11 minutes ago, roardog said: The second half of the month is starting to look like we could have some pretty strong high latitude blocking. So maybe we go back to cold and dry again? I'm fine with that if we get a nice snowpack ahead of it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 That last part of this is important.The battle appears to be indeed coming. The look has transitioned from long range to the mid range, and soon to be short range.Well at least there’s a battle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Really looks so far like most of the snow is confined to the far north or to the south of us on these more recent op runs. Most of the QPF goes south. Who knows how this shakes out. Definitely an active period however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 1/7/2025 at 7:40 AM, Cary67 said: Wouldn't be surprised to see a rinse and repeat scenario like December. The eastern trough lifts out at some point in the last third of January. Allows for milder air and a warm cutter that MSP and upper Midwest cash in on snow wise. Trough digs back in in the same position for February and we ride NW flow again to effectively lock in another sub 30" seasonal total. Still in play. Although didn't see ice storm on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Happy to see the bleeding kind of seem to stop on the next next (weekend) system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 op gfs having a good run™ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 starting to see some trends for the month of Feb. People who know more can expand and correct me. There will be some high latitude blocking that will give the Polar Vortex a jolt in about a week. Alongside a -AO/-NAO we will likely get a longwave trough in the E/C US. With increased warmth to the SE there will be storms tracking along the baroclinic zone which should give some chances of snow. The SE ridge will not be very strong though, so I wouldn't expect major storms tracking through our region. What will be likely though is below normal temps from about 2/10-2/24. At this time it's not guaranteed that we will have a SSW or have a split polar vortex, in fact there are signs that the disruption will be short lived and the PV will bounce back to strong levels. This means that the cold and blocking would not be favored to last into the month of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 The ensembles look very active going forward in February. Any details or op run hugging, which is always strongly discouraged, is probably even more worthless than usual with the type of pattern (strong baroclinic zone, very cold north/warm south, etc). I actually thought I heard blocking is expected into March, but that is way too far out to even think about at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, madwx said: starting to see some trends for the month of Feb. People who know more can expand and correct me. There will be some high latitude blocking that will give the Polar Vortex a jolt in about a week. Alongside a -AO/-NAO we will likely get a longwave trough in the E/C US. With increased warmth to the SE there will be storms tracking along the baroclinic zone which should give some chances of snow. The SE ridge will not be very strong though, so I wouldn't expect major storms tracking through our region. What will be likely though is below normal temps from about 2/10-2/24. At this time it's not guaranteed that we will have a SSW or have a split polar vortex, in fact there are signs that the disruption will be short lived and the PV will bounce back to strong levels. This means that the cold and blocking would not be favored to last into the month of March. Certainly hope you're right on the bolded. The absolute worst IMO is a boring D/J, followed by a late winter SSWE which locks in a winterlike pattern for about 8-10 weeks straight starting around Valentine's Day, leading to a chilly, miserable early-mid spring and a stunted/shortened season; yet any would-be significant events are also limited in their impact because they are fighting climo/sun angle. Feels like we have seen several of these in the last decade or so (2018 in particular stands out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: op gfs having a good run™ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Line em up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 OP GFS wildin’ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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