Stevo6899 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: EPS/GEFS nearly bone dry after the cutoff rainer friday, p wild to see the model volatility in that range Everything that comes along is just too progressive and weak. Even last weeks gulf snow was a progressive. We need more of a buckle in the jet stream and in the right place. I don't think alot of us realize how many moving parts need to come together to deliver the goods. Makes you appreciate them more when they do come 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Checkout the Iowa ,ILL, Indiana snowhole, at lease southern Missouri, southern IL and Southern Indiana get more 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Checkout the Iowa ,ILL, Indiana snowhole, at lease southern Missouri, southern IL and Southern Indiana get more This may all feel a lot less frustrating when it’s sunny and nearly 60° tomorrow!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: Checkout the Iowa ,ILL, Indiana snowhole, at lease southern Missouri, southern IL and Southern Indiana get more Fuck it, lets torch till May 2 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, ILSNOW said: Checkout the Iowa ,ILL, Indiana snowhole, at lease southern Missouri, southern IL and Southern Indiana get more You guys and these OP runs 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 hours ago, DocATL said: This may all feel a lot less frustrating when it’s sunny and nearly 60° tomorrow! . Nah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 NahI dunno honestly it’s better than cold and dry for me. Then hopefully some rain to wash away the salt. Maybe another chance at some winter the 2nd half of Feb if MJO phase 7 fares better for the Midwest. BAM thinks so. But… it’s BAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 9 minutes ago, DocATL said: I dunno honestly it’s better than cold and dry for me. Then hopefully some rain to wash away the salt. Maybe another chance at some winter the 2nd half of Feb if MJO phase 7 fares better for the Midwest. BAM thinks so. But… it’s BAM. The warm anomaly correlation relaxes, but it still is there a bit. Things this winter have not been MJO dominated, however, due to the constant re-charge of cold in Canada...Which is a big result of the frequent ridging around/near AK and vicinity (Among other things). Instead, it has sort of been a mix of cooperation between the two and also a battle...with the battle upcoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Ass 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Been definitely watching this; there could be some real fun times in the not to distant future. I would post/discuss things like this more but it was made perfectly clear to me that several on this site think stratosphere, MJO and other teleconnections are worthless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/29/2025 at 4:34 PM, michsnowfreak said: You guys and these OP runs These medium range snow total maps, whether they're Op or ens, are completely worthless regardless of the model. You would have more accuracy going to a corner psychic shop and asking how much snow, (and that's not sarcasm either). On a broader note, I know some mets get bent when a weenie like myself says it doesn't seem like there's been any improvement to long range forecasting in the last 20 years, (and I know there are technical stats that would prove that wrong), but it's really hard for a weenie like myself to see improvement. It feels exactly like the same crapshoot it was when I started following this stuff in the early 2000's This winter is a perfect example. I didn't see a single long range forecast for this winter made back in fall that came even remotely close to what's unfolded. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, buckeye said: These medium range snow total maps, whether they're Op or ens, are completely worthless regardless of the model. You would have more accuracy going to a corner psychic shop and asking how much snow, (and that's not sarcasm either). On a broader note, I know some mets get bent when a weenie like myself says it doesn't seem like there's been any improvement to long range forecasting in the last 20 years, (and I know there are technical stats that would prove that wrong), but it's really hard for a weenie like myself to see improvement. It feels exactly like the same crapshoot it was when I started following this stuff in the early 2000's This winter is a perfect example. I didn't see a single long range forecast for this winter made back in fall that came even remotely close to what's unfolded. I agree 100%. I dont care how many more models there are, how many improvements have been made etc etc, but I have been following the weather models for about 25 years and at the end of the day, predicting weather for mby is NO better/easier now than 25 years ago. Someone will rush to the defense of, well, this and this and this is why things went wrong. But we hear that nearly every season, every year. The end result is the same. The way this winter has played out through January is not even CLOSE to what was forecast. If anything, its about as opposite as you can get. As an example, here is what a typical forecast for January (heavily Nina factored) was in the Fall. Precip above to well above avg, snowfall avg to above avg, temps avg to above but with wild swings. Multiple storms/thaws producing some heavy snow but not sustained snowcover. Instead we get precip well below avg, snowfall below avg, temps below avg and sustained (albeit light) snowcover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 These medium range snow total maps, whether they're Op or ens, are completely worthless regardless of the model. You would have more accuracy going to a corner psychic shop and asking how much snow, (and that's not sarcasm either). On a broader note, I know some mets get bent when a weenie like myself says it doesn't seem like there's been any improvement to long range forecasting in the last 20 years, (and I know there are technical stats that would prove that wrong), but it's really hard for a weenie like myself to see improvement. It feels exactly like the same crapshoot it was when I started following this stuff in the early 2000's This winter is a perfect example. I didn't see a single long range forecast for this winter made back in fall that came even remotely close to what's unfolded. long range “forecasting” for an entire winter or cold season is essentially just long range guessing. if you’re right, you got lucky. if you’re wrong, you were destined to be anyway.these long range winter forecasts that are issued by many in the fall are the most pointless kind of “forecasting” there is. stick with getting the short term correct and worry less about the super long term. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Over the last 2 winters, combined. With a total of 12 months of possible measured snows ….DTW has experienced a significant snowfall deficit, receiving only 37.5 inches of snow, which is 33 inches below the average of 70.5 inches for that period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 liking chances for some thunder mid next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: long range “forecasting” for an entire winter or cold season is essentially just long range guessing. if you’re right, you got lucky. if you’re wrong, you were destined to be anyway. these long range winter forecasts that are issued by many in the fall are the most pointless kind of “forecasting” there is. stick with getting the short term correct and worry less about the super long term. yup. On a humorous note, JB finally goes warm for the first time in, (almost ever), and look what happened. I mean, he has to HATE the fact that he never saw places like New Orleans and Pensacola having a record snow year...that's the wheelhouse he claims to OWN. Instead he got pwned. He'll never put out a warm forecast again lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, buckeye said: yup. On a humorous note, JB finally goes warm for the first time in, (almost ever), and look what happened. I mean, he has to HATE the fact that he never saw places like New Orleans and Pensacola having a record snow year...that's the wheelhouse he claims to OWN. Instead he got pwned. He'll never put out a warm forecast again lol. The entire east coast is warm on the Weatherbell February forecast. The cold is all in the western part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, dmc76 said: Over the last 2 winters, combined. With a total of 12 months of possible measured snows ….DTW has experienced a significant snowfall deficit, receiving only 37.5 inches of snow, which is 33 inches below the average of 70.5 inches for that period. This is pretty close to correct. For the entire winter of 2023-24 & thru Jan 30th of the winter of 2024-25. The winter of 2023-24 saw 23.4", which is 21.6" below avg, and thru Jan 30th of this winter, the total of 14.1" is 10.2" below avg to date. Of course we all have no idea how the rest of this snow season will play out, with nearly half to go. But I knew at some point we would pay for the excess snowfall. Doesnt make it any part of enjoyable, but you knew it had to happen at some point. In fact, the 1991-2020 averages are the snowiest of any 30-year period (45.0") due to so many snowy winters. The longterm avg is around 41". The running 10 year avg snowfall of 40.9" is right around the longterm avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: This is pretty close to correct. For the entire winter of 2023-24 & thru Jan 30th of the winter of 2024-25. The winter of 2023-24 saw 23.4", which is 21.6" below avg, and thru Jan 30th of this winter, the total of 14.1" is 10.2" below avg to date. Of course we all have no idea how the rest of this snow season will play out, with nearly half to go. But I knew at some point we would pay for the excess snowfall. Doesnt make it any part of enjoyable, but you knew it had to happen at some point. In fact, the 1991-2020 averages are the snowiest of any 30-year period (45.0") due to so many snowy winters. The longterm avg is around 41". The running 10 year avg snowfall of 40.9" is right around the longterm avg. Our snow totals over the last several years must have crashed our average here in CMH. I didn't realize it, but CMH has not officially recorded a 6" or greater snowfall since 2015. I'm sure mby has touched or exceeded that but still, that's crazy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 41 minutes ago, buckeye said: Our snow totals over the last several years must have crashed our average here in CMH. I didn't realize it, but CMH has not officially recorded a 6" or greater snowfall since 2015. I'm sure mby has touched or exceeded that but still, that's crazy. Snowfall the last 3 winters (not counting this one) has been well below avg at CMH. The last 6"+ snowfall at DTW was Mar 3, 2023. Like I said, a few years of below avg snowfall is nothing after the period we went through, but it still grates on my nerves and I hope a good storm is to come this winter. IF Detroit doesnt see a 6"+ storm this winter (largest last winter 4.6", largest so far this winter 3.7") it will be the first time since 1998 that we have seen back-to-back winters without one. # of 6+ storms per winter since 2000 2000-01: 1 2001-02: 1 2002-03: 2 2003-04: 0 2004-05: 3 2005-06: 2 2006-07: 1 2007-08: 3 2008-09: 3 2009-10: 2 2010-11: 3 2011-12: 0 2012-13: 2 2013-14: 6 2014-15: 1 2015-16: 1 2016-17: 1 2017-18: 2 2018-19: 0 2019-20: 2 2020-21: 1 2021-22: 2 2022-23: 2 2023-24: 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 12z ensembles p good imo been there done that before obv, still looks like we're going to get active at min 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 You guys are right!! I am not sure why we even do a Medium-Long range discussion tread. Such a waste of time!!! We should just have an current IMBY thread and maybe a very short range one!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 A met posted this in the new england forum but it's very worth repeating in here as we move into February: Yeah this is the type of pattern that is about as bad as it gets for model guidance in the medium/long range. Very high gradient with fast flow and an emphasis on what is going on in the fast flow coming out of the arctic regions which even in the age of satellite data is poor coverage up there. I’d expect lots of big shifts. Something that may look good at 6-7 days out could easily be congrats Montreal at verification…and vice versa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Lightning said: You guys are right!! I am not sure why we even do a Medium-Long range discussion tread. Such a waste of time!!! We should just have an current IMBY thread and maybe a very short range one!! Too sensitive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Ready to punt on this winter, the extended looks blah. The spring tease next week will be great though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Alright, after I post this I'm gonna stay off the internet for the next 15 days, and assume that what is on the map pic below will in fact happen when we get there. 2 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Alright, after I post this I'm gonna stay off the internet for the next 15 days, and assume that what is on the map pic below will in fact happen when we get there. See you under the defo band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Alright, after I post this I'm gonna stay off the internet for the next 15 days, and assume that what is on the map pic below will in fact happen when we get there. I believe you will have some good snows coming up; hopefully something major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 One thing to note about the ENSO state this winter is just how late this La Nina is starting. The only other Nina to start in OND was 1949-50. And this Nina has shown significant strengthening over the last couple weeks. That could really throw a wrench into things not only for the rest of the winter, but the whole year in regards to long-range forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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