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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion


michsnowfreak
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  On 1/26/2025 at 12:22 AM, RogueWaves said:
Looking more and more like a repeat of late Dec. We finally lost the cold NW flow and promptly got ice and rainers, then right back to cold NW flow.

If we can catch a sunny day or two in the warmer temps, it will at least feel good.


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  On 1/26/2025 at 10:17 PM, Maxim said:

Don’t see how

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Yeah, there should be some pretty significant ridging. There will probably some 60s at least up to central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. At the same time, arctic air is going to constantly press into that ridge so there should be some big temp contrasts as well as possible ice storms in this pattern. 

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  On 1/26/2025 at 10:53 PM, roardog said:

Yeah, there should be some pretty significant ridging. There will probably some 60s at least up to central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. At the same time, arctic air is going to constantly press into that ridge so there should be some big temp contrasts as well as possible ice storms in this pattern. 

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classic Feb Nina pattern if you ask me

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  On 1/28/2025 at 6:25 PM, hawkeye_wx said:
Now models are punting the chance of any real snow until mid February.  A few more punts are we'll be moving on to spring.

I think there was a prevailing thought by some that things would not really be favorable until the 10th or so and that’s now playing out on the models.


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  On 1/28/2025 at 6:57 PM, DocATL said:

I think there was a prevailing thought by some that things would not really be favorable until the 10th or so and that’s now playing out on the models.


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that’s far from the case.

originally, it looked like we may transition into a more favorable pattern in mid-january. that didn’t happen, and the can has gotten kicked down the road…and that continues to be the case.

the performance of longer range guidance has been not been the best this winter.
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  On 1/28/2025 at 7:41 PM, Chicago Storm said:

that’s far from the case.

originally, it looked like we may transition into a more favorable pattern in mid-january. that didn’t happen, and the can has gotten kicked down the road…and that continues to be the case.

the performance of longer range guidance has been not been the best this winter.

Yeah…unfortunately things looking more precarious now. Clearly, the GEFS at 12z wants no part of that. The European isn’t terrible though.


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