Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Brian D]

The way I see Feb is cold start, then stormy, milder with brief cold shots, ending with colder wx extending into early March before a milder, stormy wx continues starting in the Ides of March. 

[RCNYILWX]

A more active gradient pattern, more traditional Nina if you will, is being hinted at on a lot of models/ensembles moving forward. This will likely bring more variable weather, more chances of rainers and thaws, but certainly more snowstorm chances as well.

Certainly too early to feel confident in it given uncertainty in the MJO realm, but nice look (500 mb height anomalies and 850 mb temp anomalies) on the 12z EPS in early Feb. GEFS was decent too, but would be cool to get something like the EPS evolution to play out in the extended. Anything to shake things up from the extended CAD doldrums.

At least next week will be warmer here. Should still be a decent pattern (clippers and periods of LES) for the northern Lakes though.

[Lightning]

4 hours ago, Brian D said:

The way I see Feb is cold start, then stormy, milder with brief cold shots, ending with colder wx extending into early March before a milder, stormy wx continues starting in the Ides of March. 

I am excited to see the coming pattern change coming into February.  Scoring a big one well we shall see how it all plays out 

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Certainly too early to feel confident in it given uncertainty in the MJO realm, but nice look (500 mb height anomalies and 850 mb temp anomalies) on the 12z EPS in early Feb. GEFS was decent too, but would be cool to get something like the EPS evolution to play out in the extended. Anything to shake things up from the extended CAD doldrums.

At least next week will be warmer here. Should still be a decent pattern (clippers and periods of LES) for the northern Lakes though.


 

Got my eye on those!

[A-L-E-K]

nothing exciting imminent but the more seasonal temps, slightly longer days and at least chances for precip will be nice

hopefully we can pop a major somewhere in the region before climo runs out, which is about 3-4 weeks for most of us before big dog chances fall off, fingers crossed