Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WestMichigan]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

a rough op run for sure but i think the re-emergence of western atlantic/east coast ridging is gonna happen

idk about snow obv but we're all tired of the north dakota climo 

As long as Lake Michigan stays open for business I am fine with the cold at least until I get my utility bill.  The constant 1-3" daily with occasional bumps as a SW passes through has been pretty nice.  Not so much for anyone else though.

[WestMichigan]

Euro seems to think it is going to get cold again to start February. 

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Euro seems to think it is going to get cold again to start February. 

It also has a more active pattern, which is more important. Dont get me wrong, I love cold and snowcover (even tho its a big mangy, its better than bare ground) but the zzzs need to stop lol.

[Frog Town]

Yeah,  I don't think this cold pattern is changing anytime soon.  Maybe a relaxing of the pattern, which is what we all want for better snow chances, but not a big a warm up.  Thinking mid to end of February for that.  But even then I bet it's a slow warm up with a lot of ice chances.  

[Malacka11]

Has there been a single run yet this entire season where the GFS in Euro actually depicted roughly the same evolution for a storm at more than 200 hours out?

[buckeye]

37 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Yeah,  I don't think this cold pattern is changing anytime soon.  Maybe a relaxing of the pattern, which is what we all want for better snow chances, but not a big a warm up.  Thinking mid to end of February for that.  But even then I bet it's a slow warm up with a lot of ice chances.  

I mean anything is possible, (snowball fights on Bourbon Street for example), but I find it hard to believe we end up with a wall to wall cold January followed by the same for February.  I mean we'd be talking about winters of yore.     Models always seem to get stuck when a pattern persists...like trying to turnaround an aircraft carrier.     I think once the warmth, (or at least milder), pattern actually starts arriving we'll start seeing the fantasy cold shots fading.     But I agree the transition will bring some decent storm chances for the sub, probably transitioning to rain for us but better snow chances especially further west.   The PNA is still impressively stubborn as hell but trying to break below neutral and the mjo is skirting the warm phases thru the COD as we get into the first week of Feb. 

[buckeye]

40 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Has there been a single run yet this entire season where the GFS in Euro actually depicted roughly the same evolution for a storm at more than 200 hours out?

NO

[A-L-E-K]

35 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Has there been a single run yet this entire season where the GFS in Euro actually depicted roughly the same evolution for a storm at more than 200 hours out?

Unfavorable pattern plus lots of persistent cutoff which occasionally time their way into fantasy range mirages

[DocATL]

Has there been a single run yet this entire season where the GFS in Euro actually depicted roughly the same evolution for a storm at more than 200 hours out?

I literally said this to myself. Remarkable. You can’t bake a cake without ingredients so maybe we have ingredients.


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[hawkeye_wx]

This morning's EPS is the first decent-looking run in a long time.  In the 10-15 day range, it has a western trough, with snow-producing waves getting ejected into the midwest.

[Malacka11]

57 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Unfavorable pattern plus lots of persistent cutoff which occasionally time their way into fantasy range mirages

Alright idk if I've misled but did you see 12z today?

[A-L-E-K]

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Alright idk if I'm misled but did you see 12z today?

Imo that cutoff is a long shot but I think the period after will be the end of miss south days for us for a while, fingers crossed

Lots of zzzz to go no matter how u slice it

[Chicago Storm]

ya'll are focusing on op guidance wayyy to much.

ENS have had issues, but they're always the way to go more than a few days out.

[Malacka11]

Believe me gang I've learned that lesson. Just found it funky fresh that two separate models actually depict something similar at that range, because even with long range OP guidance being what it is, I don't remember that happening yet this season strictly from a statistical standpoint (even if it means nothing)

[Chicago Storm]

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Believe me gang I've learned that lesson. Just found it funky fresh that two separate models actually depict something similar at that range, because even with long range OP guidance being what it is, I don't remember that happening yet this season strictly from a statistical standpoint (even if it means nothing)

we need a triple phaser for ya.

[DocATL]

Even though we should focus on ensembles, it still would be nice to see a synoptic event show up for at least two consecutive op runs. That gulf coast storm had been showing up consistently since hour 300.

[Chicago Storm]

19 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Even though we should focus on ensembles, it still would be nice to see a synoptic event show up for at least two consecutive op runs. That gulf coast storm had been showing up consistently since hour 300.

so, you'd rather op guidance show something for a bunch of runs, only to have it vanish towards the end because it wasn't realistic?

[DocATL]

so, you'd rather op guidance show something for a bunch of runs, only to have it vanish towards the end because it wasn't realistic?

I could be wrong but if something is popping up on consecutive op runs over a few days, wouldn’t you expect ensemble support?


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[Chicago Storm]

I could be wrong but if something is popping up on consecutive op runs over a few days, wouldn’t you expect ensemble support?


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i would expect that.

but you’re essentially just wanting guidance to show something for more than a run or two and more consistently just for the hell of it. and i get that… it’s because it has been zzz for most of you wanting something bigger and more interesting. guidance will show something consistently when there’s a realistic threat.

you mentioned the recent gulf coast winter storm. it was indeed shown for days and days out, as it was a legitimate potential, as we’ve seen. the thread-y winter storm at the beginning of the month was shown for days and days out as well, as it was also obviously a real threat.

patience is a-virtue.

[DocATL]

i would expect that.

but you’re essentially just wanting guidance to show something for more than a run or two and more consistently just for the hell of it. and i get that… it’s because it has been zzz for most of you wanting something bigger and more interesting. guidance will show something consistently when there’s a realistic threat.

you mentioned the recent gulf coast winter storm. it was indeed shown for days and days out, as it was a legitimate potential, as we’ve seen. the thread-y winter storm at the beginning of the month was shown for days and days out as well, as it was also obviously a real threat.

patience is a-virtue.

Touché

Patience is indeed a virtue, especially this winter.

Thing look to get zonal but a bit more active and at least that’s something different.

[Lightning]

19 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Touché

Patience is indeed a virtue, especially this winter.

Thing look to get zonal but a bit more active and at least that’s something different.

Also keep in mind that any storms >120hour on the models is really just model porn in the Great Lakes and Midwest regions.  Mostly entertainment purposes.  Helpful to understand trends, patterns and seeing coming changes but not much for storms.  

[Frog Town]

Week of 2/3-2/7 looks like our next legitimate threat with cold pressing again but a bit more west and not as strong.  We shall see...

[DocATL]

Also keep in mind that any storms >120hour on the models is really just model porn in the Great Lakes and Midwest regions.  Mostly entertainment purposes.  Helpful to understand trends, patterns and seeing coming changes but not much for storms.  

That’s a good point. I’ve noticed a lot more noise in models in that range here vs when I lived in the SE and east coast.


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[roardog]

Next week has the potential to have some real sunny and mild overachieving temp days south of the arctic boundary and maybe some decent over running snow just north of the boundary with some big temperature differences from SW to NE. It's just a matter of where the boundary sets up.

[A-L-E-K]

very ready to put the dust era behind us

[Lightning]

19 minutes ago, DocATL said:

That’s a good point. I’ve noticed a lot more noise in models in that range here vs when I lived in the SE and east coast.


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There is much more volatility around here in the models.  This is why you don't see many storm threads don't even get started until we are within a 3-5 day.  Heck even at 5 day out there is a risk it will just end with an ALEK "And it's gone" post