Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

p wild ice storm for GA on the euro, heavy rates with temps in the mid 20s, big time solutions being shit out for the gulf states getting close to naso fantasy range

at least we get to watch

[DocATL]

I have no memory left but... I do remember sometime back maybe 2015? not sure when a similar pattern as this set in sparked off by a very strong very late season (like December) west Pacific tropical system that was absorbed and enhanced an already strong low in the northern jet stream. When it hit the US it allowed a crazy near record (maybe record?) setting polar high in 1050's to come crashing into the plains behind it and that ridge set there for over a month suppressing the storm track well below the MD line. I think it was a record setting winter for much of the deep south. It was just bitter cold arctic tundra up here that winter and it sucked. Except for last week I feel like that's where we're headed for the next few weeks with polar ridges in the mid to high 1040's being advertised.
Note: Once again, my memory is severely flawed these days 

May have been 2017/18 if I remember correctly.

[DocATL]

p wild ice storm for GA on the euro, heavy rates with temps in the mid 20s, big time solutions being shit out for the gulf states getting close to naso fantasy range
at least we get to watch

The western Great Lakes snowshield is this winter’s most reliable feature.

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

p wild ice storm for GA on the euro, heavy rates with temps in the mid 20s, big time solutions being shit out for the gulf states getting close to naso fantasy range

at least we get to watch

West is burning, south is frozen, we are bored. 

[DocATL]

West is burning, south is frozen, we are bored. 

And frozen


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[DocATL]

Omg ridging at the end of the month on GFS and ensemble. Thank the lord. Hope it’s real!


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[Frog Town]

48 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Omg ridging at the end of the month on GFS and ensemble. Thank the lord. Hope it’s real!


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It's a mirage....February is gonna be colder and stormier than January in the great lakes points west.  Maybe a slight relaxing of the pattern at the end of the month, but it'll be temporary.  

[DocATL]

It's a mirage....February is gonna be colder and stormier than January in the great lakes points west.  Maybe a slight relaxing of the pattern at the end of the month, but it'll be temporary.  

It helps to have a SER to get a storm track though.

Next two weeks is Bleaksville!

https://x.com/nilwxreports/status/1879345024514888136?s=46


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[michsnowfreak]

From the NE forum. Not sure how it translates west of MI.

[Frog Town]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

From the NE forum. Not sure how it translates west of MI.

The rest of the picture....

[nwohweather]

p wild ice storm for GA on the euro, heavy rates with temps in the mid 20s, big time solutions being shit out for the gulf states getting close to naso fantasy range
at least we get to watch

I’m looking forward to being stranded in Atlanta next week

[nwohweather]

Total snooze fest on the GFS. 

Why do you say that? It looks like the coldest temps in years are possible and we keep getting these 2-3” hits. It’s as winter as you could hope it could be

[RogueWaves]

On 1/13/2025 at 10:56 AM, SchaumburgStormer said:

We aren't even getting anything I would call a "fantasy run". Just soul destroying CAD. 

This was a major one

 

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Why do you say that? It looks like the coldest temps in years are possible and we keep getting these 2-3” hits. It’s as winter as you could hope it could be

We will see if that happens. The cold this month so far hasn't been impressive, its been seasonal cold. The culprit is the warm lakes and lack of sea ice across Hudson Bay and Baffin Island which still hasn't frozen over yet. Might be the latest on record? This duo may modify the temps and prevent us from experiencing a severe cold outbreak like we did in mid-late Jan 2019 or late Dec 2017. 

Not complaining about these 1-3" events but going 1.5 months into winter without a trackable event is total zzz. 

[Stevo6899]

14 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Why do you say that? It looks like the coldest temps in years are possible and we keep getting these 2-3” hits. It’s as winter as you could hope it could be

That's criteria for a snoozefest for me. Ain't gonna get any decent snowstorms with temps in the teens/suppression. I think the majority of us on here hold out hope for a little more, but hey enjoy the cold and snowcover if that gets you excited. The lack of any respectable event to track this winter in the Great lakes is surprising as we essentially are 2 months into winter storm tracking time. We haven't even had the opportunity of having a good storm modeled for days and have the carpet pulled out from under us and it disappearing last minute.

[A-L-E-K]

6z gfs shit out a much different solution (not surprising given the pesky cutoff), almost a detroit major

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

6z gfs shit out a much different solution (not surprising given the pesky cutoff), almost a detroit major

Euro was pretty close also. Something to keep an eye on.

[cyclone77]

Looking promising for the eastern sub.  

Out this way naso much.  

Wake me up in April, I'm done with this pos winter.

 

[Cary67]

8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looking promising for the eastern sub.  

Out this way naso much.  

Wake me up in April, I'm done with this pos winter.

 

Erase the snow in the upper Midwest and pretty reflective of the pattern. Even shows difference in snow gradient from RFD to ORD to DTW and points SE. It's the anti 2022-23 pattern

[A-L-E-K]

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

9 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Erase the snow in the upper Midwest and pretty reflective of the pattern. Even shows difference in snow gradient from RFD to ORD to DTW and points SE. It's the anti 2022-23 pattern

Yep, running an inch or two behind LOT out this way. Double digits will be a big milestone... 

[roardog]

10 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

We will see if that happens. The cold this month so far hasn't been impressive, its been seasonal cold. The culprit is the warm lakes and lack of sea ice across Hudson Bay and Baffin Island which still hasn't frozen over yet. Might be the latest on record? This duo may modify the temps and prevent us from experiencing a severe cold outbreak like we did in mid-late Jan 2019 or late Dec 2017. 

Not complaining about these 1-3" events but going 1.5 months into winter without a trackable event is total zzz. 

I think the lack of extreme cold this month has been more about this airmass being of Canadian origin instead of originating in Siberia. That’s about to change with the airmass coming this weekend into the beginning of next week. That has the potential to produce some legit extreme cold.

[roardog]

Looking ahead at the pattern on the ensembles, I don’t know how anyone can complain about that look. -PNA, WAR, ridging into Alaska bringing continuous Arctic air into the country. The Gulf should be wide open with that WAR and it’ll be meeting up with bitter cold air. The only question is where will the boundary be. I think some people here get too caught up in watching individual operational runs and don’t stop to look at the big picture. 

[A-L-E-K]

agree doesn't look terrible as modeled, just lots of zzzzs to get through first 

[DocATL]

agree doesn't look terrible as modeled, just lots of zzzzs to get through first 

Honestly Western GL folks probably just shut things down until mid February or until we see a consistent SER popping on model runs.


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[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Looking ahead at the pattern on the ensembles, I don’t know how anyone can complain about that look. -PNA, WAR, ridging into Alaska bringing continuous Arctic air into the country. The Gulf should be wide open with that WAR and it’ll be meeting up with bitter cold air. The only question is where will the boundary be. I think some people here get too caught up in watching individual operational runs and don’t stop to look at the big picture. 

Fine to be optimistic, but I don't think you realize how horrible the winter has been west of MI.  Much of the northern plains, MN, WI, and N/NW IL (especially far northern IL) has had very little snow cover outside of intermittent dustings...and when the dustings do occur, they sublimate in sunny areas.  IMBY, I haven't had more than 1" of snow cover all season, and this will probably hold through the end of January.  

So while the upcoming pattern after 1/25 may look a bit better relatively speaking, who cares until it actually happens. And, even if it does, it's (yet again) too late to save the winter.

This is the 2nd winter in a row where there hasn't been enough snow in northern WI for winter activities, where we've had to cancel plans. It's getting ridiculous. Bad enough for MBY, but at 46N in mid-January, 2 years in a row?? Cold and dry for a 2-3 week period would be ok if there were meaningful snow cover going into it, which is why it's so important to build a base in December...but we can't seem to do that lately either. This had the potential to be a Top 10 cold January if the entire source region and MBY had decent snow cover.

[A-L-E-K]

u always melt down tho, cyclone is the canary in the coal mine for a dud winter

[roardog]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Fine to be optimistic, but I don't think you realize how horrible the winter has been west of MI.  Much of the northern plains, MN, WI, and N/NW IL (especially far northern IL) has had very little snow cover outside of intermittent dustings...and when the dustings do occur, they sublimate in sunny areas.  IMBY, I haven't had more than 1" of snow cover all season, and this will probably hold through the end of January.  

So while the upcoming pattern after 1/25 may look a bit better relatively speaking, who cares until it actually happens. And, even if it does, it's (yet again) too late to save the winter.

This is the 2nd winter in a row where there hasn't been enough snow in northern WI for winter activities, where we've had to cancel plans. It's getting ridiculous. Bad enough for MBY, but at 46N in mid-January, 2 years in a row?? Cold and dry for a 2-3 week period would be ok if there were meaningful snow cover going into it, which is why it's so important to build a base in December...but we can't seem to do that lately either. This had the potential to be a Top 10 cold January if the entire source region and MBY had decent snow cover.

There’s a difference between a winter that’s been too warm to keep a snowpack and one that’s not. Yes, it’s been a dry winter all over the Midwest. Northern Wisconsin might not have much snow cover right now but at least it’s been cold enough to freeze up the lakes for activities like ice fishing which is still a big part of the economy in those areas. That’s the big difference between this winter and last winter. Snow cover in non lake effect areas will always be hit and miss. 2 years ago Minnesota was getting buried with snow and had plenty of cold too so not everywhere had a “bad” winter 2 years ago. 

[nwohweather]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

There’s a difference between a winter that’s been too warm to keep a snowpack and one that’s not. Yes, it’s been a dry winter all over the Midwest. Northern Wisconsin might not have much snow cover right now but at least it’s been cold enough to freeze up the lakes for activities like ice fishing which is still a big part of the economy in those areas. That’s the big difference between this winter and last winter. Snow cover in non lake effect areas will always be hit and miss. 2 years ago Minnesota was getting buried with snow and had plenty of cold too so not everywhere had a “bad” winter 2 years ago. 

I would chock this up as a real winter. Maybe not the snowiest but it's winter alright

[Lightning]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Fine to be optimistic, but I don't think you realize how horrible the winter has been west of MI.  Much of the northern plains, MN, WI, and N/NW IL (especially far northern IL) has had very little snow cover outside of intermittent dustings...and when the dustings do occur, they sublimate in sunny areas.  IMBY, I haven't had more than 1" of snow cover all season, and this will probably hold through the end of January.  

So while the upcoming pattern after 1/25 may look a bit better relatively speaking, who cares until it actually happens. And, even if it does, it's (yet again) too late to save the winter.

This is how I feel in some April/Mays when IL is on your 3rd+ round of great T-storms and all we have had is some remnant light rains IMBY  

Good thing is there are good signs (as Roardog has noted) of things becoming more stormy with this cold air around but getting there and actual results are always the trick!!