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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion


michsnowfreak
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23 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It would be absolutely paralyzing if that were to verify to the region. Maybe I need to move back to Charleston, SC :lol:

SE ridge will put that back up to the Mason-Dixon line.  Our chance in the southern GL is when the pattern reloads, but unfortunately that has been a thread the needle thing lately with how quickly the cold reloads.  We need a bigger warmup to let things shift back west a bit.  Otherwise it's a southern winter.  

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1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

SE ridge will put that back up to the Mason-Dixon line.  Our chance in the southern GL is when the pattern reloads, but unfortunately that has been a thread the needle thing lately with how quickly the cold reloads.  We need a bigger warmup to let things shift back west a bit.  Otherwise it's a southern winter.  

there hasn't been a quality pattern to reload.

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56 minutes ago, DocATL said:

I agree with many of you. If we are going to be in a lousy pattern at least let’s have consistent modeling of such. The SER will be a welcomed sight in 3 weeks.

God I hope not that long.   This is the most depressing weather.   Endless days of near/below freezing with no exciting systems to be found.   A 4-5" battered snow cover and everything looks dirty and covered in salt dust.    First winter where I'm not going any place warm either.   Kill me

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God I hope not that long.   This is the most depressing weather.   Endless days of near/below freezing with no exciting systems to be found.   A 4-5" battered snow cover and everything looks dirty and covered in salt dust.    First winter where I'm not going any place warm either.   Kill me

I mean if we want a better pattern I’m afraid we will need to wait - at least based on recent analog years.


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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

God I hope not that long.   This is the most depressing weather.   Endless days of near/below freezing with no exciting systems to be found.   A 4-5" battered snow cover and everything looks dirty and covered in salt dust.    First winter where I'm not going any place warm either.   Kill me

You will take your 4-5" battered snow cover and be grateful! 

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1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said:

I've got about 3-4" still on the ground. Should get about a half inch to freshen it up tomorrow. Maybe I can finally get some lake winds to blow in my favor early next week. All this cold and no lake-effect big dogs this year. Sad!

Next week the lake effect will probably be the dust sized flakes that barely accumulate.

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I have no memory left but... I do remember sometime back maybe 2015? not sure when a similar pattern as this set in sparked off by a very strong very late season (like December) west Pacific tropical system that was absorbed and enhanced an already strong low in the northern jet stream. When it hit the US it allowed a crazy near record (maybe record?) setting polar high in 1050's to come crashing into the plains behind it and that ridge set there for over a month suppressing the storm track well below the MD line. I think it was a record setting winter for much of the deep south. It was just bitter cold arctic tundra up here that winter and it sucked. Except for last week I feel like that's where we're headed for the next few weeks with polar ridges in the mid to high 1040's being advertised.

Note: Once again, my memory is severely flawed these days :weenie:

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