michsnowfreak Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, DocATL said: I’d be skeptical and go with pattern persistence. This carrot has been dangled a few times already. Any individual area may be cynical and skeptical until they see results, but its certainly not a stretch to see how the aforementioned changes in the pattern would give the northern stream a more active look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Friday could put down our first lasting ground coverage of the season. Outside of the November snow which melted same day, ground has been bare all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: Friday could put down our first lasting ground coverage of the season. Outside of the November snow which melted same day, ground has been bare all year Since November, Detroit had had 15 days with a T of snow on the ground and 8 days with 1", and no days with 2"+. If we can score 2"+ this weekend id be thrilled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 At least this next potential storm we can all just root for better phasing and negative tilt to benefit us all and possibly screw the Northeast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: At least this next potential storm we can all just root for better phasing and negative tilt to benefit us all and possibly screw the Northeast? i always root for anything to benefit us. I dont really care about the northeast unless it affects us directly. Most of the east coast has been in a far worse snow drought than us the last several years. The glory days when the lower Great Lakes and northeast were getting season after season of above to well average snowfall and it was always "f*ck boston" and stuff like that is now about a decade removed. Just. Give. Me. Accumulating. Snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Any individual area may be cynical and skeptical until they see results, but its certainly not a stretch to see how the aforementioned changes in the pattern would give the northern stream a more active look. No question. I’m just not sure that those changes transpire based on what we’ve see so far. Also the possibility of the track to be too far north or west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 16 minutes ago, mimillman said: Friday could put down our first lasting ground coverage of the season. Outside of the November snow which melted same day, ground has been bare all year That's my hope. Finesse enough to cover the grass and then build on it with a clipper or two or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, DocATL said: No question. I’m just not sure that those changes transpire based on what we’ve see so far. Also the possibility of the track to be too far north or west. . Some of the positives of the projected pattern change. A much colder Canada (and a warming southern US) will likely produce a more traditional La Nina pattern. Its easy to forget as its cold out, but Canada is actually unseasonably warm right now. This would likely give a much more active northern stream and possibly even a Nina gradient, which can be a real treat. Often a storm tracking too far to your N & W will happen, but the pattern is so active you chalk up the L and wait for the next one. I can assure you, one rogue snowstorm well to the south in an otherwise sea of zzzzs with frozen, bare ground dominating the north is NOT a traditional Nina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: i always root for anything to benefit us. I dont really care about the northeast unless it affects us directly. Most of the east coast has been in a far worse snow drought than us the last several years. The glory days when the lower Great Lakes and northeast were getting season after season of above to well average snowfall and it was always "f*ck boston" and stuff like that is now about a decade removed. Just. Give. Me. Accumulating. Snow. Yeah I feel that. Just would love to be able to root for something at this point. It does look like we'll stay active through the end of the month with storms traversing our region. Hopefully some pan out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro keeps the next one south but gfs is more spread the wealth. Given how gfs just performed poorly with current system I'm skeptical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Ensembles not hope inducing, feels like any real potential still our there in the ether of fantasy range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro keeps the next one south but gfs is more spread the wealth. Given how gfs just performed poorly with current system I'm skeptical. Euro has done much better and based on the pattern we’re in this makes more sense. The next system will want to follow closer to the path of the last one.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Some of the positives of the projected pattern change. A much colder Canada (and a warming southern US) will likely produce a more traditional La Nina pattern. Its easy to forget as its cold out, but Canada is actually unseasonably warm right now. This would likely give a much more active northern stream and possibly even a Nina gradient, which can be a real treat. Often a storm tracking too far to your N & W will happen, but the pattern is so active you chalk up the L and wait for the next one. I can assure you, one rogue snowstorm well to the south in an otherwise sea of zzzzs with frozen, bare ground dominating the north is NOT a traditional Nina.Yeah well these ain’t traditional times. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, DocATL said: Yeah well these ain’t traditional times. . Just trying to give you a heads up, again I know you arent from the area. but if you want to just ride the "nothing will change" card, thats cool too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2-4 or bust.. Euro is now longer the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Still no precipitation showing up on the models within 200 hours imby. zzzzzzzzzz 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just trying to give you a heads up, again I know you arent from the area. but if you want to just ride the "nothing will change" card, thats cool too.Well I hope the 18z GFS holds true for both of us.Though the ensemble mean is discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 26 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Still no precipitation showing up on the models within 200 hours imby. zzzzzzzzzz looks good to me. We can trade places 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Dallas will have more snow on the season than I have gotten, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Dallas will have more snow on the season than I have gotten, lol. Same. Pathetic. Lol. Wish gfs could be right on this one but euro seems more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 32 minutes ago, mimillman said: looks good to me. We can trade places All hail king euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Team GFS. Because someone has to be. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Dallas will have more snow on the season than I have gotten, lol. 2 hours ago, Radtechwxman said: Same. Pathetic. Lol. Wish gfs could be right on this one but euro seems more realistic. 2 hours ago, ILSNOW said: Still far from a lock (especially with today's model trends), but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: Still far from a lock (especially with today's model trends), but... I thought you didn't like snow or is this just a case of you liking to rub it in some people's faces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: I thought you didn't like snow or is this just a case of you liking to rub it in some people's faces? A little bit of both. But in all seriouaness, I'm always down for a Big Dog, and this one has above-average potential (similar to Feb. 2010 for Dallas). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Dallas will have more snow on the season than I have gotten, lol. Bank on those totals getting reduced by an inch of ice.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Same. Pathetic. Lol. Wish gfs could be right on this one but euro seems more realistic. GFS is probably wrong based on ensembles.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Goodbye Dallas snowmageddon on the 0z GFS. Trending away from much of anything for Chicago and Detroit. Nice reinforcing event for areas just hit with this weekend’s storm. Otherwise, rinse and repeat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Don't mind being nickel and dimed away from the hellhole that was the 23/24 season. Finding myself more appreciative of any amount of snow nowadays. Sort-of a nice reset insomuch that this is simply a hobby-interest. Only 4" more to surpass last season. Seems a rather doable task given latitude and remaining time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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