hawkeye_wx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Models have also really backed off of the extreme cold they were advertising a week ago. Now it just looks like some typical January cold. The latest model runs don't even have any sub-zero lows here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Silver lining 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models have also really backed off of the extreme cold they were advertising a week ago. Now it just looks like some typical January cold. The latest model runs don't even have any sub-zero lows here. Good, with the recent rains and warm temps the grass in my neighborhood greened back up. I wouldn't want below zero temps, that's the kind of stuff that kills plants. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 32 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models have also really backed off of the extreme cold they were advertising a week ago. Now it just looks like some typical January cold. The latest model runs don't even have any sub-zero lows here. Love to see it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models have also really backed off of the extreme cold they were advertising a week ago. Now it just looks like some typical January cold. The latest model runs don't even have any sub-zero lows here. The lack of any decent or widespread snow cover maybe playing a role in that. Kind of similar to Jan 2011. Although it finished below average, their wasn't any extreme cold. I think ORD only got below zero once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, Snowstorms said: The lack of any decent or widespread snow cover maybe playing a role in that. Kind of similar to Jan 2011. Although it finished below average, there wasn't any extreme cold. I think ORD only got below zero once. While the coming airmass this week isn’t extreme for January standards, It would still be plenty cold enough to go below zero at night if there was snow cover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That Euro total snow map till January 18 looks depressing for everyone in the Great Lakes, Ohio, and NE region outside of the snow belts. Hope things change in the last 10 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: That Euro total snow map till January 18 looks depressing for everyone in the Great Lakes, Ohio, and NE region outside of the snow belts. Hope things change in the last 10 days of the month. Outside of whatever happens to our south with this weekends system, its just a terrible storm pattern for everyone. I guess I should be happy to see the lake flakes considering many folks in MN, WI, New England wont see anything. Looks like the next synoptic thing to watch will be next weekend with a clipper diving south. Periods of lake effect snow and clippers certainly cant be ruled out in the NW flow, in fact some disturbances will be likely, but they will be hard to pinpoint more than a few days out and all should be minor. REALLY need to a more active pattern after mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Outside of whatever happens to our south with this weekends system, its just a terrible storm pattern for everyone. I guess I should be happy to see the lake flakes considering many folks in MN, WI, New England wont see anything. Looks like the next synoptic thing to watch will be next weekend with a clipper diving south. Periods of lake effect snow and clippers certainly cant be ruled out in the NW flow, in fact some disturbances will be likely, but they will be hard to pinpoint more than a few days out and all should be minor. REALLY need to a more active pattern after mid-Jan. Kinda breaks the generalization of la ninas having more precip in Michigan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Kinda breaks the generalization of la ninas having more precip in Michigan. It is early obviously. Time will tell. But yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It is early obviously. Time will tell. But yes. Maybe relates to the strength of the Nina.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, DocATL said: Maybe relates to the strength of the Nina. . It's possible. And again. No one likes to hear it. But it is early. Could still get into a good stormy pattern. But right now lake effect and hopefully a weak clipper or two will be all we get the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1875357476503351668?s=46Really interesting info on how we are dodging the real cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z suite looked a lot more active for the subforum with another event next weekend to watch 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 31 minutes ago, mimillman said: 12z suite looked a lot more active for the subforum with another event next weekend to watch So nice to see the word active lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Next Friday/Saturday definitely has my interest! Area's that could get overlapped by both of these storms could be in for an epic Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z suite looked a lot more active for the subforum with another event next weekend to watch Don’t get attached to that one for next weekend. The setup is even more complex than the current one. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Don’t get attached to that one for next weekend. The setup is even more complex than the current one. Yeah don't look at it at least until Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Don’t get attached to that one for next weekend. The setup is even more complex than the current one. 10% better than 0% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/3/2025 at 2:54 PM, WestMichigan said: Kinda breaks the generalization of la ninas having more precip in Michigan. Uhm, SMI just had up to 2 INCHES liquid last weekend. Which is precip last time I checked. We've suffered horrible temp pattern as much or more than a lack of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Don’t get attached to that one for next weekend. The setup is even more complex than the current one.The run to run inconsistency is a dead giveaway. Lots of moving parts which could lead to a lot or a little. A lot of pacific energy to keep it from getting stupid cold at least.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/3/2025 at 2:43 PM, michsnowfreak said: Outside of whatever happens to our south with this weekends system, its just a terrible storm pattern for everyone. I guess I should be happy to see the lake flakes considering many folks in MN, WI, New England wont see anything. Looks like the next synoptic thing to watch will be next weekend with a clipper diving south. Periods of lake effect snow and clippers certainly cant be ruled out in the NW flow, in fact some disturbances will be likely, but they will be hard to pinpoint more than a few days out and all should be minor. REALLY need to a more active pattern after mid-Jan. All the ensembles are indicating a pattern shift after the 15th. The PNA ridge begins to break down and a ridge begins to form around Alaska towards the Aleutians. This will shift the mean trough towards the plains and hopefully give way to a more stormier/active storm track for the sub in the final 10-15 days of the month. About the only silver lining I see right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 46 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: All the ensembles are indicating a pattern shift after the 15th. The PNA ridge begins to break down and a ridge begins to form around Alaska towards the Aleutians. This will shift the mean trough towards the plains and hopefully give way to a more stormier/active storm track for the sub in the final 10-15 days of the month. About the only silver lining I see right now. The signal is definitely there on all the ensembles and weeklies. The issue in the short term is the cold and zzzz pattern that's frustrating snow lovers and the fact that any impulses/systems that DO occur in the meantime will have very poor run to run consistency on timing, location, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The signal is definitely there on all the ensembles and weeklies. The issue in the short term is the cold and zzzz pattern that's frustrating snow lovers and the fact that any impulses/systems that DO occur in the meantime will have very poor run to run consistency on timing, location, etc. Lucky we at least have the Lions to help the zzz's 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Lucky we at least have the Lions to help the zzz's I bet it feels good to be able to finally say that so late into a season... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Zzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 All the ensembles are indicating a pattern shift after the 15th. The PNA ridge begins to break down and a ridge begins to form around Alaska towards the Aleutians. This will shift the mean trough towards the plains and hopefully give way to a more stormier/active storm track for the sub in the final 10-15 days of the month. About the only silver lining I see right now. I’d be skeptical and go with pattern persistence. This carrot has been dangled a few times already. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I know it's the Northeast but my God look at this in the medium range on the GFS. You'd need front end loaders for Boston & NYC if this verified 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 February will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: February will be rockin We got our first "Better head to the basement" storm of 2024 in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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