Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[vpbob21]

36 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

For anyone still following the now-Monday storm, the 00z GFS says congrats Kentucky. 

On the positive side the Canadian and the UKMET both came way north.

[Malacka11]

5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Crazy Uncle Ukie brought you a bottle of Buffalo Trace

Lighting that fire within me™

[TheNiño]

56 minutes ago, DocATL said:

As a relative newcomer to the Midwest, specifically Chicagoland, I harbor no ill will toward any Michiganders, except for you LES region cheaters. I hate all of you.

I’m fortunate enough to live directly on the lake but am still so jealous of those on the Michigan side. Every time I see them getting LES I cry a little bit.

[A-L-E-K]

Ready to be dusted

[nvck]

I'll have what the 06z euro is cooking, please.

[Radtechwxman]

Definitely not liking the trends at the moment for this one. Getting that look and feeling of a miss south. Would be a real bummer to just have another cold,dry stretch with no snow. 

[cyclone77]

Hoping for a high ratio overachiever on the north side.  

[Radtechwxman]

29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Hoping for a high ratio overachiever on the north side.  

You and I both. Or maybe a nudge north. Lol

[dmc76]

It doesn’t even seem like it gets that cold in the lower lakes region. To me looks very January-ish 

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 hours ago, nvck said:

I'll have what the 06z euro is cooking, please.

Euro has been beyond trash the past year+. Not putting any weight into whatever it’s showing 

[Radtechwxman]

Well 12z gfs is a lot more south. Getting a strong vibe this will be I72 south and maybe even I70 south. Cold and dry sucks. Maybe can get some clippers out of this pattern. 

[DocATL]

Euro has been beyond trash the past year+. Not putting any weight into whatever it’s showing 

Seems believable. GFS is even further south.

[DocATL]

Well 12z gfs is a lot more south. Getting a strong vibe this will be I72 south and maybe even I70 south. Cold and dry sucks. Maybe can get some clippers out of this pattern. 

Even the clipper tracks may set up to the south. An epic couple of weeks coming for the middle and Deep South. Happy for those folks. Always good seeing places that don’t get a lot of wintery events to get in on the action.

[ILSNOW]

only 18 more runz of the GFS to go!!!!

[SchaumburgStormer]

5 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Seems believable. GFS is even further south.

I’m not saying the storm won’t track south, more general commentary on flag planting on the euro. 

[Chicago Storm]

There’s been a big shift in the evolution of things aloft on most guidance over the past day or so. Gone is the several piece phasing across Canada down into the US, and it has been replaced by a far less phased gyre of a wave, which tracks more W-E across the Western and Central US, before running into a wall and rapidly shearing out.

That’s the main reason you’re seeing a shift towards a weaker, earlier sheared, and further south tracking storm system.

The thread is splitting when trying to thread the eye of the needle, and the current trends are not optimal.

[DocATL]

About to get Miller A…might be epic


Edit: well it might get sheared to oblivion

[ILSNOW]

12z UKMET still North

 

[Radtechwxman]

21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

There’s been a big shift in the evolution of things aloft on most guidance over the past day or so. Gone is the several piece phasing across Canada down into the US, and it has been replaced by a far less phased gyre of a wave, which tracks more W-E across the Western and Central US, before running into a wall and rapidly shearing out.

That’s the main reason you’re seeing a shift towards a weaker, earlier sheared, and further south tracking storm system.

The thread is splitting when trying to thread the eye of the needle, and the current trends are not optimal.

Agreed. So much confluence east. Not optimal upper air pattern at all for a more wound up north storm. Crazy we may get another cold stretch with little to no snow. 

[Pascy619]

Back to that CAD pattern.

[Radtechwxman]

I wish GDPS could be right. Nice spread the wealth event. 

[DocATL]

Agreed. So much confluence east. Not optimal upper air pattern at all for a more wound up north storm. Crazy we may get another cold stretch with little to no snow. 

Yeah we’ll need to get through CAD. Late January and February may give us a more classic Nina with something to work with. Maybe?


.

[Powerball]

I'd love nothing more than to send all of the cold & snowstorm potential y'alls way this weekend and next week.

The OK/TX folks can barely contain themselves over the model-depicted cold blast and snowstorm teases, and I hate to see it...

[ChiTownSnow]

The cold is not nearly what it once was advertised.  Smh

[hawkeye_wx]

Latest Euro... the model trend is clear.  It will be difficult to get this up to the I-80 corridor with the big se Canada upper low holding strong.

[Radtechwxman]

Man if Euro was a smidge more north I could really cash in. So close. This is brutal

[mimillman]

I’d love to see the Indy/Cinci team cash in. It’s been ages for them.

Dont think it’s over yet either way but as some have mentioned, changes aloft/trends not optimal. Per chance the SW and S lake shore could get lucky with a brief window of lake effect.

[WestMichigan]

Congrats to South Texas and Northern Mexico per the latest Euro about 10 days away.  CAD and suppression is no way to run a winter.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Multi year trend of “south, sheared, weaker” will not be denied 

[ChiTownSnow]

20 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Man if Euro was a smidge more north I could really cash in. So close. This is brutal

At this stage, a smidge is doable