Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Most people would like a sunny and mild Spring but I would rather have lots of storms with gulf moisture even if it means it’s 40F and raining here while it’s 75F in Toledo. There’s plenty of time for sunny, pleasant and boring days in the summer.

There's plenty of time in the summer for severe storms.  Also for low pressures to take the current track of this weekends storm, perfect track for snow but no cold air around. I do see todays euro does try to strengthen the low a bit for maybe some frozen precip. This more wound up solution pulls the baroclinic zone a bit further south for the next storm midweek to take a more southern track and possibly thread the needle for some areas (detroit).

[Lightning]

8 hours ago, DocATL said:

Yes just snow. That’s it. Otherwise mild temps will do.

I know I’m not getting what I want by any means. It’s the highs and lows of model watching and prognosticating that makes it fun.

Obviously it’s colder than Atlanta. The 2.5 inches we got last week would have made many a winter down there.

Chicago is a great place to get some occasional snows but mostly mild temperatures.  It is not a continuous snow and cold city. It can get some great storms but they are not yearly.

Also keep in mind snow is fickle as colder winters do not always equate to great snows.  

I can give to extremes where I live which the snowfall was opposite the temps.  95-96 was below average temps but snow was well below average ( ~15" below my area's average snowfall).  04-05 was well above average temps yet snow was WAY above average (it was 50" above average IMBY). 

Generally speaking the colder winter do produce the better snows but snow is definitely fickle at times.

[A-L-E-K]

The coming east coast pattern is gonna be rough

[buckeye]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

The coming east coast pattern is gonna be rough

Rougher for them if they don't score anything in that pattern.   

[dmc76]

BAM: big snows coming to Indy. 
 

GFS: 0.2” for Indy 
 

 

[sbnwx85]

CAD Watch in effect.

[buckeye]

snowfall totals for gefs and eps through 360 are pretty paltry for the MA and I-95 in spite of a favorable 500mb look. Actually heavier for GL and OV in spite of a further east trough axis...but still nothing great here either.   

I think most likely we go from this coming warmth to cad for a week or so and then the trough exits stage right and we go back into a wavy pattern of warm/wet cold dry.   Best hope of snow outside of some nw flow stuff is a surprise storm on a front transitioning of the warm to cold or vice versa.  Something like that might not get picked up on models until inside of 150 hrs.

[buckeye]

Just now, buckeye said:

snowfall totals for gefs and eps through 360 are pretty paltry for the MA and I-95 in spite of a favorable 500mb look. Actually heavier for GL and OV in spite of a further east trough axis...but still nothing great here either.   

I think most likely we go from this coming warmth to cad for a week or so and then the trough exits stage right and we go back into a wavy pattern of warm/wet cold dry.   Best hope of snow outside of some nw flow stuff is a surprise storm on a front transitioning of the warm to cold or vice versa.  Something like that might not get picked up on models until inside of 150 hrs.

/\ this is the most optimistic post you will see from me

[mimillman]

Year of endless lake effect. Erie I think has gotten more than the past 2 years combined?

[Snowstorms]

Man what a powerful Gulf low this weekend. If only it was colder 

[Malacka11]

13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Man what a powerful Gulf low this weekend. If only it was colder 

Selfishly, I know I'd be sitting here pissing and shitting myself about that miss south stank but true, this storm really will be a huge waste. 

[Dabuckeyes]

Serviceable 12z runs for most of the region

[DocATL]

Euro at least throws us a bone with the godforsaken northwest flow. Better than nothing. The GFS gives us a synoptic snow with much better accumulation to the south. Again, better than nothing.


.

[Baum]

i still see the real pattern experts are silent.

[Nelson]

24 minutes ago, Baum said:

i still see the real pattern experts are silent.

Barely paying attention until I see one of them chime in... This bullshit isn't helping.

 

[cyclone77]

The Jan 5/6 system is the only thing that looks interesting for out this way.  Several models show it, so hopefully it's a good sign it will actually exist as we get closer.

[Chicago Storm]

i still see the real pattern experts are silent.

[Chicago Storm]

i still see the real pattern experts are silent.

to be fair, ohweather did toss up a post about a week ago regarding things. though, what he mentions is easily 2+ weeks away still.

[Snowstorms]

11 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

The coming east coast pattern is gonna be rough

I prefer the trough centered towards the upper great lakes and midwest. if its too far east, its tougher to get big storms. 

[ChiTownSnow]

So the new January pattern is the same as the old December pattern.. yay 2025

[buckeye]

3 hours ago, Baum said:

i still see the real pattern experts are silent.

I’ll be posting a bit, just finishing some calculations 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

to be fair, ohweather did toss up a post about a week ago regarding things. though, what he mentions is easily 2+ weeks away still.

I've been terribly lazy about posting lately (something about working a lot of evening/night shifts during the holidays), but I still think we'll have plenty to track in January. The current torch is about as short-lived as one could've asked. We get into a lake effect pattern this week into the start of January, which I understand only benefits a select few. The January 6-10th period mainly favors the east coast with a couple potential storms, but there's some potential for both shortwaves to produce snow for the subforum if either can phase/amplify early enough. First one would be farther northwest than the second one:

If we don't see a larger storm during that Jan 6-10th period, some clippers/lake effect should still continue. 

We probably need to get past the midpoint of January (so still 2+ weeks away as you said), but the storm track should shift farther west at some point with enough cold air still running around for it to be wintry. 

[DocATL]

I've been terribly lazy about posting lately (something about working a lot of evening/night shifts during the holidays), but I still think we'll have plenty to track in January. The current torch is about as short-lived as one could've asked. We get into a lake effect pattern this week into the start of January, which I understand only benefits a select few. The January 6-10th period mainly favors the east coast with a couple potential storms, but there's some potential for both shortwaves to produce snow for the subforum if either can phase/amplify early enough. First one would be farther northwest than the second one:


If we don't see a larger storm during that Jan 6-10th period, some clippers/lake effect should still continue. 
We probably need to get past the midpoint of January (so still 2+ weeks away as you said), but the storm track should shift farther west at some point with enough cold air still running around for it to be wintry. 

Great synopsis! Interesting to see how it shakes out.

[pondo1000]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

I’ll be posting a bit, just finishing some calculations 

Give it a shot! You may surprise yourself! I think you have it in you. 

[mimillman]

Jan 5-7 could be interesting to track if nothing else 

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, OHweather said:

I've been terribly lazy about posting lately (something about working a lot of evening/night shifts during the holidays), but I still think we'll have plenty to track in January. The current torch is about as short-lived as one could've asked. We get into a lake effect pattern this week into the start of January, which I understand only benefits a select few. The January 6-10th period mainly favors the east coast with a couple potential storms, but there's some potential for both shortwaves to produce snow for the subforum if either can phase/amplify early enough. First one would be farther northwest than the second one:

If we don't see a larger storm during that Jan 6-10th period, some clippers/lake effect should still continue. 

We probably need to get past the midpoint of January (so still 2+ weeks away as you said), but the storm track should shift farther west at some point with enough cold air still running around for it to be wintry. 

Great synopsis. Very true about the torch being short-lived, especially compared to how it was hyped up for weeks. Jan 5-10 has been active on ensembles since it came into view, will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

[hawkeye_wx]

35 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Jan 5-7 could be interesting to track if nothing else 

We are at least seeing the first tease of the season.  The last couple Euro runs (and AI Euro) are the most bullish.  The Euro then follows the storm with brutal cold... multiple days remaining below zero.

[RogueWaves]

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Great synopsis. Very true about the torch being short-lived, especially compared to how it was hyped up for weeks. Jan 5-10 has been active on ensembles since it came into view, will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

IF this manages to thread the needle, it would be crazy short considering the drums were beat that it would be ruining winter. Finally lost my snow this morning. I expected it to be gone b4 Christmas a week ago.  

 

[Chicago Storm]

There’s a very small window of opportunity for a legitimate thread the needle chance, leading into the expected significant Eastern US/Canada troughing.

We’ve seen countless opportunities similar that have fallen apart well in advance or just don’t produce. So, I wouldn’t put down any money that it’ll happen, but there’s at least a chance. The OP Euro modeled evolution is essentially the perfect/best case scenario…with the GFS not far off.

[Malacka11]

Okay guys we've been validated, get your weenie on