Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[sbnwx85]

4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

18z gfs might be the sexiest run I've seen in awhile. 3 systems maturing right overhead. 

 

[Spartman]

https://x.com/WeatherCast3/status/1871356785313137085

[Spartman]

About to go to COD soon

[Frog Town]

No ZZZzzzzz's yet from you know who so we got that going for us.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

No ZZZzzzzz's yet from you know who so we got that going for us.

Might be the first such fantasy storm of the winter:

[DocATL]

Zzzzzzz!!!

through hr 252 of GFS and hr 240 of CMC

[Frog Town]

14 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Zzzzzzz!!!

through hr 252 of GFS and hr 240 of CMC

It doesn't get good until hour 330...LOL.    What is wrong with us.  

[Frog Town]

It's nice to see our local offices mentioning what's been in LaLa land for weeks now.  

 

 Beginning of a colder pattern change late in the period

The entire long wave trough will lift out of the region on Sunday,
cooling things down some. The cooldown for Sunday and Monday does
not look to be too significant for this time of the year, except
coming off of the 50 degree temps for the weekend. This is because
we will be in between the two branches of the upper jet.

We are looking at a more significant cool down that may begin as
early as next Tuesday, and more likely just beyond. This is
something that the long term model ensembles have been showing for
quite a while. We will see another active southern stream system
come out of the desert SW, and a stronger northern stream system
diving in from the NW.

Lots of details to be ironed out yet how the two branches will
interact and phase with each other. The net result though looks to
be a colder pattern as we enter the New Year.

&&

[A-L-E-K]

Bad and getting worse

 

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Bad and getting worse

 

Just give it time!  We've got the cold within 7 days now and it looks to last.  The storms will do what they do but it looks better than it did in early DEC.  Things are gonna look A LOT different around here come mid January.  

[nwohweather]

This is not a good sign, sub 1000 mb low with no snow on the backside? Oof

[DocATL]

Multiple GFS runs that show snow to the north and northwest of us as well as to the east and southeast. Wish I was making this up. 12z did not like Illinois.

[Baum]

3 hours ago, DocATL said:

Multiple GFS runs that show snow to the north and northwest of us as well as to the east and southeast. Wish I was making this up. 12z did not like Illinois.

rookie.

[Snowstorms]

8 hours ago, nwohweather said:

This is not a good sign, sub 1000 mb low with no snow on the backside? Oof

Beautiful track. Eerily similar to Mar 08 and Jan 22. If only it was colder 

[DocATL]

rookie.

Not saying that’s what will ultimately transpire. In fact it’s highly unlikely to transpire in that exact manner. I’d rather have this than what we had in early December.


.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Don't worry guys we'll get our snow and ice quota in March or April when we're all ready for severe weather instead 

[Spartman]

Not long before going to COD

[Spartman]

00z Euro starts losing the cold beyond the 270-hour.

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzzz

[dmc76]

Every time I check the models, the cold gets pushed back every 6 to 12 hours every run. 
 

 

[DocATL]

The EPS is yuck. Mild out west. First 10 days of January don’t look great for snow (right now). Let’s see if GFS folds. Maybe we just need that classic nina look to roll the dice on.

EDIT: GEFS trying to fold.

[SchaumburgStormer]

21 hours ago, DocATL said:

Multiple GFS runs that show snow to the north and northwest of us as well as to the east and southeast. Wish I was making this up. 12z did not like Illinois.

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, dmc76 said:

Every time I check the models, the cold gets pushed back every 6 to 12 hours every run. 
 

 

90 days until baseball and possibly/hopefully a warm start to spring. 

[DocATL]

I swear it’s comedic.

[DocATL]

Oh no…BAM Wx folding. *feigns a shocked look* We’re doomed lol.

[Maxim]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

90 days until baseball and possibly/hopefully a warm start to spring. 

I’d take a repeat of last spring in a heartbeat. One of the best ever imo

[roardog]

21 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Oh no…BAM Wx folding. *feigns a shocked look* We’re doomed lol.

What exactly are you hoping for in a Chicago winter? Just snow? It’s obviously already been much colder than Atlanta. lol

[roardog]

8 minutes ago, Maxim said:

I’d take a repeat of last spring in a heartbeat. One of the best ever imo

Most people would like a sunny and mild Spring but I would rather have lots of storms with gulf moisture even if it means it’s 40F and raining here while it’s 75F in Toledo. There’s plenty of time for sunny, pleasant and boring days in the summer.

[DocATL]

What exactly are you hoping for in a Chicago winter? Just snow? It’s obviously already been much colder than Atlanta. lol

Yes just snow. That’s it. Otherwise mild temps will do.

I know I’m not getting what I want by any means. It’s the highs and lows of model watching and prognosticating that makes it fun.

Obviously it’s colder than Atlanta. The 2.5 inches we got last week would have made many a winter down there.

[Maxim]

36 minutes ago, roardog said:

Most people would like a sunny and mild Spring but I would rather have lots of storms with gulf moisture even if it means it’s 40F and raining here while it’s 75F in Toledo. There’s plenty of time for sunny, pleasant and boring days in the summer.

Last spring was a perfect balance of mild sunny days and garden variety storms, at least in my area. Not a fan of the absurdly wet patterns that we have seen in many of our recent springs, but to each their own.