Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

These were my college years in SE Michigan and it sucked!  I remember it all ending in January of '99 with the Blizzard.  

They were my junior high and high school years. Like I said. Honestly. Going from 1990s winters to 2000s and 2010s winter was just like going from 1950s winters to 1970s winters.

[Powerball]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzz

 

Yep.

[OHweather]

Garbage pattern for the next 10 days or so, sure. But it's looking like January will feature plenty of wintry opportunities. Hopefully not too boring for some people though. 

Pacific puke in the short-medium term. However, good agreement that backs off quickly as we head into January. It will take a bit of time for truly cold air to start returning to the CONUS since the source region will be scoured so badly over the next 7-10 days. However, it should start trending colder during the first week of January with legitimate potential for notable cold to return by the second week of the month.

The initial pattern, with a ridge on the west coast and trough axis over the eastern U.S., is not conducive to big snows in the region. However, it'd at least offer some potential for clippers and there could be a more notable low pressure of some sorts the beginning of January towards the beginning of the pattern change. Towards the end of the loop, the ridge axis shifts west towards Alaska and there are hints the sub-tropical jet becomes more active into the second week of January. Those trends should shift the trough axis farther west and could provide for some phasing opportunities over the Plains the 2nd-3rd week of January. 

[Frog Town]

33 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Garbage pattern for the next 10 days or so, sure. But it's looking like January will feature plenty of wintry opportunities. Hopefully not too boring for some people though. 

Pacific puke in the short-medium term. However, good agreement that backs off quickly as we head into January. It will take a bit of time for truly cold air to start returning to the CONUS since the source region will be scoured so badly over the next 7-10 days. However, it should start trending colder during the first week of January with legitimate potential for notable cold to return by the second week of the month.

The initial pattern, with a ridge on the west coast and trough axis over the eastern U.S., is not conducive to big snows in the region. However, it'd at least offer some potential for clippers and there could be a more notable low pressure of some sorts the beginning of January towards the beginning of the pattern change. Towards the end of the loop, the ridge axis shifts west towards Alaska and there are hints the sub-tropical jet becomes more active into the second week of January. Those trends should shift the trough axis farther west and could provide for some phasing opportunities over the Plains the 2nd-3rd week of January. 

Awesome insight!  Thanks.  Is this MJO dependent?  

[OHweather]

8 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Awesome insight!  Thanks.  Is this MJO dependent?  

Sort of kind of. The upcoming Pacific puke/warm up is definitely driven by a half-decent MJO passage out of the Indian Ocean into the western Pacific, which is adding a good bit of westerly momentum into the Pacific jet:

What's also contributing to the upcoming strong Pacific jet and warm up is a strong high pressure dropping into eastern Asia, which puts a significant torque against the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau and also acts to speed up the Pacific jet:

Into early January, the MJO will attempt to work across the Pacific and appears likely to weaken, allowing the warm waters over the western Pacific to become the primary source of tropical forcing. The east Asian mountain torque will also weaken somewhat, though won't completely reverse. All of this should give us a nice mix of allowing the Pacific jet to back off just enough to allow ridging to pop on the west coast (as opposed to the upcoming strong +EPO and strong Pacific jet into the west coast), while keeping the Pacific jet strong enough that the ridge doesn't slide back towards the north central Pacific (which would be a -PNA/SE ridge pattern). 

[Frog Town]

34 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Sort of kind of. The upcoming Pacific puke/warm up is definitely driven by a half-decent MJO passage out of the Indian Ocean into the western Pacific, which is adding a good bit of westerly momentum into the Pacific jet:

What's also contributing to the upcoming strong Pacific jet and warm up is a strong high pressure dropping into eastern Asia, which puts a significant torque against the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau and also acts to speed up the Pacific jet:

Into early January, the MJO will attempt to work across the Pacific and appears likely to weaken, allowing the warm waters over the western Pacific to become the primary source of tropical forcing. The east Asian mountain torque will also weaken somewhat, though won't completely reverse. All of this should give us a nice mix of allowing the Pacific jet to back off just enough to allow ridging to pop on the west coast (as opposed to the upcoming strong +EPO and strong Pacific jet into the west coast), while keeping the Pacific jet strong enough that the ridge doesn't slide back towards the north central Pacific (which would be a -PNA/SE ridge pattern). 

Much appreciated.  I'm a Math/Physics teacher and can piece together a lot of the microphysics at it relates to your craft.  You are very good and teaching this stuff.  You ever consider it?  

[Snowstorms]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Officially at DTW, there were no 6"+ storms from Dec 8, 1994 to Jan 1, 1999 (closest being 5.8" on Mar 20, 1996).

The 80's and 90's were horrible for snow lovers. Couple cold winters in the early 80s and 1992-1994 but otherwise it was seasonably warm and snowless. Which ironically coincides with the last +PDO phase. Arguably it turned more snowier and colder at the turn of the century when the PDO flipped again. 

[Danny8]

3 hours ago, Frog Town said:

These were my college years in SE Michigan and it sucked!  I remember it all ending in January of '99 with the Blizzard.  

As a kid I think January 1999 is what sparked my love for winter after waiting so long for snow days. I was in Sterling Heights and I always felt like everything was missing us

[Maxim]

The CFS must be seeing a lot of warmth for the second half of Jan if the first half is slated to be on the cold side.

[dmc76]

55 minutes ago, Danny8 said:

As a kid I think January 1999 is what sparked my love for winter after waiting so long for snow days. I was in Sterling Heights and I always felt like everything was missing us

 that storm in early 1999. Technically it missed us. We were on the wrong side of the low. 

[dmc76]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

The 80's and 90's were horrible for snow lovers. Couple cold winters in the early 80s and 1992-1994 but otherwise it was seasonably warm and snowless. Which ironically coincides with the last +PDO phase. Arguably it turned more snowier and colder at the turn of the century when the PDO flipped again. 

It was not horrible in the upper Midwest, Ohio valley, EC and the snow belts. It was a lower Great Lakes issue. 

[Danny8]

30 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

 that storm in early 1999. Technically it missed us. We were on the wrong side of the low. 

The one 17th on this list? January 2-3, 1999 i mean

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtwsnowstorm

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, dmc76 said:

 that storm in early 1999. Technically it missed us. We were on the wrong side of the low. 

What do you mean by "technically missed us?" 

Because the Detroit area definitely got slammed by the January 1999 Blizzard (DTW officially ended up just shy of 12", but many parts of the region did see a foot or more). It was probably the last time the region saw legit blizzard conditions.

Albeit, definitely a rarity for being on the wrong side of the low

[dmc76]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

What do you mean by "technically missed us?" 

Because the Detroit area definitely got slammed by the January 1999 Blizzard (DTW officially ended up just shy of 12", but many parts of the region did see a foot or more). It was probably the last time the region saw legit blizzard conditions.

Albeit, definitely a rarity for being on the wrong side of the low

Wrong side of the low.  Yes, for storm being on the wrong side of low 99.9% of the time it would’ve been a rainmaker, but that time it was a legit snowstorm technically, the storm “missed us” 

 

[cyclone77]

The boxing day rainer has bumped closer and will now be a Christmas rainer.  Would be pretty sweet if we could have mustered up some thunder, but it looks like a sprinkly/very light rain affair.  

[OHweather]

6 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Much appreciated.  I'm a Math/Physics teacher and can piece together a lot of the microphysics at it relates to your craft.  You are very good and teaching this stuff.  You ever consider it?  

The physics background definitely helps I’m sure! I’ve considered it, but I do enjoy forecasting it full time (most days) and would likely need to go back and get a bit more education to do it. So I don’t have any current plans, but things change and who knows how long I’ll want to do these rotating shifts for. 

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

The 80's and 90's were horrible for snow lovers. Couple cold winters in the early 80s and 1992-1994 but otherwise it was seasonably warm and snowless. Which ironically coincides with the last +PDO phase. Arguably it turned more snowier and colder at the turn of the century when the PDO flipped again. 

Actually the 80s were decent for snow here. Similar to the 1970s and 2000s in terms of average snowfall, but less big storms. I think it was a very clippery decade. They the 90s took a huge dip before going right back up in the 2000s.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

At this rate if we keep having warm ups and no sustained cool offs, the lake effect belts could have another full winter of dealing with LES

[sbnwx85]

2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

At this rate if we keep having warm ups and no sustained cool offs, the lake effect belts could have another full winter of dealing with LES

Some of Indiana’s biggest LES events have come in January. See South Bend in 2011 and Michigan City last year.

[Snowstorms]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually the 80s were decent for snow here. Similar to the 1970s and 2000s in terms of average snowfall, but less big storms. I think it was a very clippery decade. They the 90s took a huge dip before going right back up in the 2000s.

The early to mid 80s weren't bad for snow here too. Both 83-84 and 84-85 were stellar seasons. Late 80's into the 90's were just bad. 

I was near your neck of the woods today. Drove to Ann Arbor then Sterling Heights to see some Christmas stuff haha. 

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzzz 

[Spartman]

Not looking good on the 06z GFS when the cold gets pushed back beyond the 384th hour. 

MJO hints we may very well go into the COD in a matter of days. 

[ChiTownSnow]

Gonna take a bit for the models to sort out the timing of the pattern change & cold.  as well as the moderation of the initial cold. 

[Chicago916]

Odds the pattern change brings Cutters west of our region, followed by Northeast storms and we're left in the dust?

[Frog Town]

Teleconnections say No to Upper Midwest cutters and SE ridge.  I'd imagine the models will smooth out but I wouldn't trust the runs that far out at this point.  

[DocATL]

Odds the pattern change brings Cutters west of our region, followed by Northeast storms and we're left in the dust?

Yes. Rain prospects do look good through mid January. Maybe we get back in the mix as the next cold pattern relaxes latter half of January. Good opportunities for Ohio valley and northeast. Iowa and Minnesota probably do well.


.

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Yes. Rain prospects do look good through mid January. Maybe we get back in the mix as the next cold pattern relaxes latter half of January. Good opportunities for Ohio valley and northeast. Iowa and Minnesota probably do well.


.

There is nothing pointing to a pattern where west and east of the Great Lakes do well while the Lakes get rain

[hawkeye_wx]

After the next week of mild air and light rain, the op Euro finally shows a major pattern change to active and cold...... and it STILL doesn't show a single dang flake of snow through the end of the run.  It's unreal how difficult it can be to get snow around here.

[Stevo6899]

18z gfs might be the sexiest run I've seen in awhile. 3 systems maturing right overhead. 

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

18z gfs might be the sexiest run I've seen in awhile. 3 systems maturing right overhead. 

This was yesterday's 12Z Euro eye candy for the east coast, lol.  That would be reeaally nice!