Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[RogueWaves]

33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I know. I have a few pics from that winter. Better than 78 here. 78 is way overrated HERE. I'd take 81-82 over it. Many winters are underrated. Especially recent ones. Look at Docs post above. We were so spoiled that a "normal" winter was considered terrible in the 2000s/10s. And while we've certainly had some mild winters recently, we still have gotten good snowstorms. To call a few winters a new norm is insane.

Somewhere back in time, there was no doubt a ten year stretch when 9 of 10 Dec's were awesome. We're just seeing nature's balance act for that lately. It can certainly get cold enough to snow in December IF we get favorable patterns. 

[buckeye]

9 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

After doing this, the 1976-1985 period sticks out like a sore thumb to periods before and after.  This is horrible for me to accept, as I grew up on winters during that time and therefore it became my expectation. 

That period really was amazing and is what really turned me into a snow weenie. It’s not my imagination or cherry picked memories.   When we moved from the Philly area to Central Ohio in 1977 I was in 7th grade.   We walked to school and in the winter months, the walk was through snow on a regular basis, sometimes with brutal cold.  Those type of winters seemed to become normal as we would skate on our pond across the street build sled runs and dump water on them overnight so they would freeze up like a toboggan shoot and build ramps for our sleds to jump onto the frozen pond.  
When it did get warm enough during a January thaw, it often came with melting snow, fog, and drizzle, and that was what seemed to be abnormal… whereas winters since then it’s the snow and cold that has become abnormal.   
im just glad I was able to experience that. I hope someday my grandkids will get the same experience.

[beavis1729]

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

That period really was amazing and is what really turned me into a snow weenie. It’s not my imagination or cherry picked memories.   When we moved from the Philly area to Central Ohio in 1977 I was in 7th grade.   We walked to school and in the winter months, the walk was through snow on a regular basis, sometimes with brutal cold.  Those type of winters seemed to become normal as we would skate on our pond across the street build sled runs and dump water on them overnight so they would freeze up like a toboggan shoot and build ramps for our sleds to jump onto the frozen pond.  
When it did get warm enough during a January thaw, it often came with melting snow, fog, and drizzle, and that was what seemed to be abnormal… whereas winters since then it’s the snow and cold that has become abnormal.   
im just glad I was able to experience that. I hope someday my grandkids will get the same experience.

Great story, and it’s what brings us all here. Hoping against all hope. 

[buckeye]

3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Great story, and it’s what brings us all here. Hoping against all hope. 

And it’s not really so much about overall snow total for the winters but as you said, it seemed the snow cover persisted. We didn’t need to have 100 inches of snow because the snow we did get stuck around

[beavis1729]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good data. I will work on the rest of it. I have the pre-1948 snow depth as well, for some reason its not in xmacis.

As expected...2013-14 was the winner, with an INSANE number of 923! This is 409 MORE than the vaunted winter of 1977-78. And 2014-15 actually comes in 2nd place with 574.

Amazingly, ORD had 1,130 SDDs in 1978-79. Unbelievable winter. 

[RogueWaves]

57 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Amazingly, ORD had 1,130 SDDs in 1978-79. Unbelievable winter. 

Deepest snow I've personally seen - 50" OTG in NWMI

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Somewhere back in time, there was no doubt a ten year stretch when 9 of 10 Dec's were awesome. We're just seeing nature's balance act for that lately. It can certainly get cold enough to snow in December IF we get favorable patterns. 

It's been plenty cold this Dec. Not a favorable pattern. There have been periods in the climo record where DJF were equal. But recently it's been very heavily Jan-Feb dominated.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Amazingly, ORD had 1,130 SDDs in 1978-79. Unbelievable winter. 

You want to see me lose my crap? I probably would've in 1978-79. DTW only had 35.6". While Chicago was buried. It was a cold winter but those storms that hit Chicago gave us brief rain/ice then back to cold. 

[cyclone77]

On 11/23/2024 at 1:43 PM, cyclone77 said:

Changed the oil in the snow blower this morning, let's go!

jinx

[buckeye]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You want to see me lose my crap? I probably would've in 1978-79. DTW only had 35.6". While Chicago was buried. It was a cold winter but those storms that hit Chicago gave us brief rain/ice then back to cold. 

Wow, no wonder you never mention that year....even Columbus beat Detroit 46".

[buckeye]

Just now, buckeye said:

Wow, no wonder you never mention that year....even Columbus beat Detroit 46".

it would have been fun if this place and the internet existed back then....watching the Josh meltdowns would have been awesome.

#darkjosh 

[DocATL]

The NAM crushing the I-95 corridor is a gut punch. But nobody threads the needle more than they do.

[Lightning]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

it would have been fun if this place and the internet existed back then....watching the Josh meltdowns would have been awesome.

#darkjosh 

Can you imagine of being in Saginaw during the 76-77 winter with a grand season total of 18.5" of snow??  Don't think anyone there looks back at that year with any grand memories of being buried 

[Baum]

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

The NAM crushing the I-95 corridor is a gut punch. But nobody threads the needle more than they do.

imagine referencing the 12Z NAM as gospel for an entirely different region? Next level. Btw...you do know many of those areas have not had a legit snow event in over 3 seasons.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

Can you imagine of being in Saginaw during the 76-77 winter with a grand season total of 18.5" of snow??  Don't think anyone there looks back at that year with any grand memories of being buried 

A lot of people on this board would hate that type of winter. I would probably get tired of the extreme cold with hardly any precip though too. From what I've read, it actually started to get milder in February then there was an early Spring which turned into a very mild Spring. So there was definitely some balancing that went on after the cold fall and winter. 

[A-L-E-K]

p impressive ensemble mean for 270 hours

will be a challenge to see organized snow in the region anytime soon imo

[Chicago916]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

p impressive ensemble mean for 270 hours

will be a challenge to see organized snow in the region anytime soon imo

Better odds of thunderstorms?

[A-L-E-K]

gulf looks kinda stunted, i'm sure we'll get there soon enough

[roardog]

6 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Better odds of thunderstorms?

Those crazy abnormal heights in Canada are probably going to kind of act like a block which might keep it from getting too warm or cold. Days and days of low clouds and fog with easterly flow at the surface?

[Lightning]

26 minutes ago, roardog said:

A lot of people on this board would hate that type of winter. I would probably get tired of the extreme cold with hardly any precip though too. From what I've read, it actually started to get milder in February then there was an early Spring which turned into a very mild Spring. So there was definitely some balancing that went on after the cold fall and winter. 

Thankfully I was in the northern burbs of Detroit that year and got plenty of snow.  I was a bit young to remember the spring details but a quick look at the numbers it shows March, April and May '77 were overall mild.   

[Baum]

40 minutes ago, roardog said:

Those crazy abnormal heights in Canada are probably going to kind of act like a block which might keep it from getting too warm or cold. Days and days of low clouds and fog with easterly flow at the surface?

California Dreamin'

[hlcater]

41 minutes ago, roardog said:

Those crazy abnormal heights in Canada are probably going to kind of act like a block which might keep it from getting too warm or cold. Days and days of low clouds and fog with easterly flow at the surface?

I think this is probably the most likely outcome. AA for sure but I’m not convinced that we get crazy anomalies

 

rainers for days tho

[Maxim]

Interesting outlook from TWC, particularly in regards to January which I was not expecting to see. I know they aren't great, but still.

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2024-12-18-january-february-march-2025-temperature-forecast-outlook
 

[Maxim]

48 minutes ago, roardog said:

Those crazy abnormal heights in Canada are probably going to kind of act like a block which might keep it from getting too warm or cold. Days and days of low clouds and fog with easterly flow at the surface?

I think we see 50s for a few days at least

[roardog]

1 minute ago, Maxim said:

I think we see 50s for a few days at least

The southern part of the sub will probably for sure, maybe even 60. I could just see this being reminiscent to an April type set up where the warm front will struggle to move too far north. It will be mild either way but some sun and 60 versus low clouds and upper 30s.

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

p impressive ensemble mean for 270 hours

will be a challenge to see organized snow in the region anytime soon imo

not until we get that fugly vortex outta Alaska. 

[TheClimateChanger]

7 hours ago, buckeye said:

Wow, no wonder you never mention that year....even Columbus beat Detroit 46".

You should take a look at 1995-96. You nearly had him doubled. Hell, Charleston, West Virginia had about 4x as much snow.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 12/18/2024 at 11:48 AM, beavis1729 said:

Right...and of course it's not meant to be personal.  But while relentless optimism is probably a good thing overall in life, it sometimes comes across insensitive and out of touch…as it invalidates others’ concerns and valid points.  After 8 bad winters in a row, there are reasons to be frustrated, right?

Of course, you’re not responsible for making others feel better on a wx board…but there’s another dynamic going on here.  People like us who enjoy deep cold, snow, and everything about winter (which presumably includes you too!) don’t get any sympathy from the public.  So, we often come here for that, as everyone likes to feel part of a group with shared interests.   

So, your comment about a possible 1-2” of snow on the solstice is tone deaf, since (even if it actually occurs) it will be gone by Christmas…with a torch possible for the last week of 2024.  In all of your comments, there's an underlying tone of "why are you complaining?" But many of us look at it differently, i.e., who cares about 1-2” on the solstice in this setting, given how bad Dec has been up to this point and is expected to be post-Christmas. 

And when you keep saying that December has been chilly up to this point, many folks have two issues with that:  (1) There’s hardly any snow cover in the Midwest, Plains, and GL…much less in our back yards…so who cares about the relative cold (2) ORD’s normal temps are about 5F (!) higher for 1991-2020 vs. 1951-1980…so it’s all relative.  A normal DJF in 1951-1980 would be ok, but a normal DJF today is way too warm.  In other words, you need a -5F departure month to be decent these days.

Unfortunately, after struggling with it for years and years, I’ve finally had to acknowledge that our winter climo is horrible.  I guess I have you to thank for this, so congratulations.  I've been denying it for so long, but have to admit that you’re right.  What capped it off for me is looking at Snow Depth Days (SDDs), where you add up each day’s snow depth in inches across the whole season.  It’s a great way to compare the severity of winters, as it combines snow, temps, and snow cover into one easy number.  After doing this, the 1976-1985 period sticks out like a sore thumb to periods before and after.  This is horrible for me to accept, as I grew up on winters during that time and therefore it became my expectation.  But even so, people are still going to wish for “better than normal” on a wx board.  So, it’s annoying to constantly be told that these wishes are not logical…even though it may technically be true.  I hear this from the public all the time, so we don’t need to keep hearing it on a wx board full of our fellow weenies.  Yes, we know our climo is horrible…and, no, we don’t want to keep hearing about it.

Chicago annual average SDDs (winters ending in the years noted)

1966-1975:  162

1976-1985:  343

1986-1995:  113

1996-2005:  187

2006-2015:  225

2016-2024:  130

Even though the 2006-2015 winters look relatively good in the above chart, they weren’t really that good in my mind.  So now I need to accept that, compared to the last 8 winters, those winters were like living in Siberia.  Definitely not an easy pill to swallow.  As an example, for two of these winters in particular:

2008-09:  Many people think this was a great winter…but there was no snow cover at ORD from 12/27 to 1/9, then the wintry feel essentially ended after 2/8.  You need to have snow on the ground for most/all of Dec 15^th – Feb 15^th in order to have a proper winter.  Doesn’t need to be a lot of snow cover, just 3” so that blades of grass aren’t showing.

2010-11:  Even with the GHD storm, there were significant periods of no snow cover (such as 12/31 to 1/11, right in the heart of winter)…and we couldn’t even hold on to the GHD snow cover beyond 2/17.  When you get that much snow at the beginning of Feb, it should stay on the ground through the end of the month.  If it were Nov or March, that’s different.  Just too many thaws.

As always, our issue isn’t snow – it’s temps.  If we had a reliable 30-50” of seasonal snow with average temps 5-8F colder than our current norms, we’d be in good shape.  That’s why the warming of DJF normal temps by 5F over the past 40 years is so devastating.  Every degree matters in this area.  We don’t need blizzards and subzero temps – but the thaws are just too much to overcome.  Thaws need to have temps in the 30s, not 40s and 50s.

Even this morning was frustrating.  We finally got a dusting of snow, but it didn’t stick on the pavement, and will probably melt today in the sun despite the somewhat chilly temps.  Snow isn't supposed to melt in the sun on 12/18.  It’s like everything is going against maintaining a proper winter vibe around here.  That’s why you need to build a base in the first 2 weeks of December…since dustings of snow would then be welcomed and not worried about, since they just refresh the existing snow cover.  When you keep starting from scratch on snow cover over and over again, a million variables need to go right to get things going.  It’s just exhausting.

Winter shouldn’t just be “cooler than July with occasional periods of snow and cold”…as if getting a couple of decent snow events in DJF is a win.  But that’s how low our expectations have sunk.  It’s not about individual “events”; it’s the feel of the whole winter.  That’s like saying our expectation for summer should only be “milder than January with occasional warm days”…which of course isn’t true.  No one in their right mind would be happy with that in summer.

Something like this would satisfy Beavis. You know it's a good month when the cumulative low temperature is -284.

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You should take a look at 1995-96. You nearly had him doubled. Hell, Charleston, West Virginia had about 4x as much snow.

I've brought up that winter many times. In all my years following weather, never seen more of a screw zone than 1995-96.

[Maxim]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

The southern part of the sub will probably for sure, maybe even 60. I could just see this being reminiscent to an April type set up where the warm front will struggle to move too far north. It will be mild either way but some sun and 60 versus low clouds and upper 30s.

Latest GFS run has 60s into WI lol