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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion


michsnowfreak
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23 minutes ago, DocATL said:


I mean we hope for this. Siberia is unusual mild at the moment. Judah Cohen thinks the core of the cold in January goes to Western Europe. We stay mild which isn’t a dealbreaker but who knows.

we're all fighting over scraps at this point

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we're all fighting over scraps at this point

lol it’s wild. I’m praying for an inch like I did in the southeast. At least it gets cold enough to snow. As I say that the GEFS has Chicago above freezing for nearly 10 straight days!
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3 hours ago, DocATL said:


I mean we hope for this. Siberia is unusual mild at the moment. Judah Cohen thinks the core of the cold in January goes to Western Europe. We stay mild which isn’t a dealbreaker but who knows.

My bad. I left out forecasted temps for Siberia. Actually shows in the EPs Run the negative departures there then.

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58 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Confluence to the east due to a coastal, it makes sense. If the coastal is weaker though it may not fall apart as quickly.

Fingers crossed in the vanishing zone!  Models have been back and forth with said confluence.  Today's 12Z Euro says less of it! 

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Confluence to the east due to a coastal, it makes sense. If the coastal is weaker though it may not fall apart as quickly.

I was wondering why it was weakening. I knew it was something lol. Although still looks good for a little snow here, which will be festive for the week leading up top Christmas.

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8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was wondering why it was weakening. I knew it was something lol. Although still looks good for a little snow here, which will be festive for the week leading up top Christmas.

It's looking like a 1-2" at this point. It still runs out of gas considerably compared to NW of here.

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43 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It's looking like a 1-2" at this point. It still runs out of gas considerably compared to NW of here.

Oh I know. But 1-2" is better than nothing. Nice way to kick off the winter solstice. So far this season, DTW has had 7 days with 1" of snow on the ground, another 6 days with a T, but no depth of 2" or greater yet. 

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10 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Good to have you back Stebo!  Nice changes in the ENS regarding Winters return around the new year, no? 

I won't bite until I see consistency, plus we still need it west of where its showing now. That has more of the current cold but dry look.

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16 hours ago, DocATL said:


Punt to later in January. Not winter entirely. It’s gonna take a while to find cold from here:

ce159bf5bc33736b250d4cace5b457f8.jpg


.

Agreed. Plus the lack of sea ice in Hudson Bay and near Baffin Island is really concerning. Doesn't bode well for any sustained cold in the East anytime soon. And a 5 day cool down later this week won't help with the torch expected later next week. 

Our best chance for any sustained winter is likely mid Jan. 

 

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4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I know. But 1-2" is better than nothing. Nice way to kick off the winter solstice. So far this season, DTW has had 7 days with 1" of snow on the ground, another 6 days with a T, but no depth of 2" or greater yet. 

Omg Josh! That’s a true definition of putting lipstick on a piece of turd! 

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5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I know. But 1-2" is better than nothing. Nice way to kick off the winter solstice. So far this season, DTW has had 7 days with 1" of snow on the ground, another 6 days with a T, but no depth of 2" or greater yet. 

You sound like an ole fashioned CMH snow weenie…

…it’s happening Josh…you’re in denial right now but fear not, the next stage is acceptance :devilsmiley:

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the key here is, if neither i nor ohweather are talking up something interesting, there's nothing to see for our region.
sure, there's thread the needle patterns here and there, but many of you want more than that.

Thread the needle threats are a welcome change compared to the tundra we just endured.


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14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

You sound like an ole fashioned CMH snow weenie…

…it’s happening Josh…you’re in denial right now but fear not, the next stage is acceptance :devilsmiley:

It’s lake effect dusting southeast Michigan style it’s not like we had mountains on the side of the road. It’s not like the grass was completely covered. We’re talking a dusting that’s just stuck around.

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