Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[homedis]

52 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

January party. My sons is the 14th (he’ll be 6) and mine is the 17th.

 

i demand double digit storms for all of the January birthdays 

Been lurking for a while, but my birthday is Jan 12th  a good snowstorm would be a great birthday gift

[Frog Town]

Back on topic...

Pretty big shifts in the MJO today, for the better.  

[buckeye]

6 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Decent snow potential for IA-WI around Dec 30-31, colder pattern to follow, and Jan 12-14 is a good estimate of when there could be a major winter storm in all of the midwest.

Saturn's ring going negative?

[Malacka11]

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

Saturn's ring going negative?

This might be my favorite post in however long I've been here

[A-L-E-K]

Time 2 torch huh

[iluvsnow]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

This might be my favorite post in however long I've been here

Buckeye may be a landscaper by trade but he has the quickest, best comic wit on here! And ain't even close.

[LakeEffectOH]

Don't look now, but I saw the BAM Wx long range video today.  Walt really backed off on the early - mid January cold.  He said the polar vortex, in the models appears to be moving to the other side of the globe.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

January party. My sons is the 14th (he’ll be 6) and mine is the 17th.

 

i demand double digit storms for all of the January birthdays 

Jokes aside, I'm liking January. Really hoping the pattern shakes itself up amd gers more active. Cold and dry dominated the first half of December. 

[Spartman]

2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Back on topic...

Pretty big shifts in the MJO today, for the better.  

Looked good Euro-wise, but the GFS/GEFS MJO surely is a mixed bag.

[ChiTownSnow]

2 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Don't look now, but I saw the BAM Wx long range video today.  Walt really backed off on the early - mid January cold.  He said the polar vortex, in the models appears to be moving to the other side of the globe.

i see he is to mid january now (it was dec 25th-30th).  still at the denial stage.. next step is acceptance. 

[Maxim]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Time 2 torch huh

Sure seems like it.

[LakeEffectOH]

35 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

i see he is to mid january now (it was dec 25th-30th).  still at the denial stage.. next step is acceptance. 

Reminds me of JB.

[Chicago Storm]

never have seen so much BAM talk in a thread before for our parts.

[michsnowfreak]

38 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

i see he is to mid january now (it was dec 25th-30th).  still at the denial stage.. next step is acceptance. 

A turn colder in Jan has a strong signal on euro weeklies. But this whole turning colder Dec 25-30 idea was bad from the getgo. It's been a pretty cold Dec anyway, so if it turned colder Dec 25-30, when would we fit in the mild pattern that was to precede the next turn cold? 

[ChiTownSnow]

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

never have seen so much BAM talk in a thread before for our parts.

yah...kinda reminds you of the old JB days?..  hehe

[ChiTownSnow]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

A turn colder in Jan has a strong signal on euro weeklies. But this whole turning colder Dec 25-30 idea was bad from the getgo. It's been a pretty cold Dec anyway, so if it turned colder Dec 25-30, when would we fit in the mild pattern that was to precede the next turn cold? 

that mild pattern was originally the current mild pattern we are in now, to proceed return of winter around end of month.. 

[iluvsnow]

Seems that BAM has said all along that the last week of December would be warm...so no surprise. The tell will be if it turns cold and stormy as they predict right after the new year.

From their X page from several days ago....

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

that mild pattern was originally the current mild pattern we are in now, to proceed return of winter around end of month.. 

Oh I didn't recall. 

[ChiTownSnow]

1 hour ago, iluvsnow said:

Seems that BAM has said all along that the last week of December would be warm...so no surprise. The tell will be if it turns cold and stormy as they predict right after the new year.

From their X page from several days ago....

you have to go back a bit further .. their prediction for 15th - 20th time frame started late Nov /early Dec.   i think someone actually posted it on this thread a while back .   im not really bashing them, just pointing out the trend as well as the fact that he is in the hype social media business..

 

i think this is it.  

 

[wegoweather]

2 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said:

you have to go back a bit further .. their prediction for 15th - 20th time frame started late Nov /early Dec.   i think someone actually posted it on this thread a while back .   im not really bashing them, just pointing out the trend as well as the fact that he is in the hype social media business..

 

i think this is it.  

 

The video titled "Will we have a winter" and talks about warm moderation between the 10th through the 25th or 30th with potential for a favorable winter pattern returning early January?  

I get the jealousy from those whose following ends at anonymous posts on a bad facebook page and this website, but this thread is titled "Medium / Long Range Discussion". Wiithout BAM type posts all we have are zzzz with 384 Hr 2m surface temp screenshots and "Torch Incoming" posts.

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said:

i see he is to mid january now (it was dec 25th-30th).  still at the denial stage.. next step is acceptance. 

Weird. It’s almost like it’s a shit product we shouldn’t be giving the time of day to. All about driving subs. 

[DocATL]

GFS backing off on snow chances for this week and next weekend as you might have guessed. I mean we were never looking at a substantial event so a nonevent was much more likely. The silver lining is the considerable warm up to close out the month. Mid to upper 50’s is going to feel good. The next step would be a break in the clouds and some sunshine.

[DocATL]

i see he is to mid january now (it was dec 25th-30th).  still at the denial stage.. next step is acceptance. 

Interestingly last year our only real stretch of winter and snow didn’t come till the first half of January. We may have to punt that. Sad.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, DocATL said:

Interestingly last year our only real stretch of winter and snow didn’t come till the first half of January. We may have to punt that. Sad.

Lol. You need to hold your horses. Who said you have to punt winter? It's a ridiculous statement. I don't even see this supposed bam video, so I can't comment on it's content. But come on!

[DocATL]

Lol. You need to hold your horses. Who said you have to punt winter? It's a ridiculous statement. I don't even see this supposed bam video, so I can't comment on it's content. But come on!

Punt to later in January. Not winter entirely. It’s gonna take a while to find cold from here:




.

[sbnwx85]

Safe to say it’s going to be boring through the week of Christmas for the subforum including the lake belts. These up and down temps should hopefully lead to something active in January. From what I’m reading from multiple sources, mid-January into mid-February should be rocking and cold for us.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Punt to later in January. Not winter entirely. It’s gonna take a while to find cold from here:




.

Cross Polar Flow is expected to set back up in early January so will rapidly cool Canada back down from the enormous cross country Chinook blowtorch induced Temps. -100 Temps in Siberia which Is below average even for there. If we tap that it may balance out to Normal with the mixing once it engulfs North America, if it does. 

[A-L-E-K]

6 hours ago, DocATL said:

Punt to later in January. Not winter entirely. It’s gonna take a while to find cold from here:




.

Been trying to warn folks, the forced bamwx optimism was cringe imo

Ready for some 60s

[DocATL]

Cross Polar Flow is expected to set back up in early January so will rapidly cool Canada back down from the enormous cross country Chinook blowtorch induced Temps. -100 Temps in Siberia which Is below average even for there. If we tap that it may balance out to Normal with the mixing once it engulfs North America, if it does. 

I mean we hope for this. Siberia is unusual mild at the moment. Judah Cohen thinks the core of the cold in January goes to Western Europe. We stay mild which isn’t a dealbreaker but who knows.

[Baum]

17 minutes ago, DocATL said:

I mean we hope for this. Siberia is unusual mild at the moment. Judah Cohen thinks the core of the cold in January goes to Western Europe. We stay mild which isn’t a dealbreaker but who knows.

Take your DAB tomorrow and Thursday and  run with it. It'll at least frost the trees and add a festive feel to the season. I've experienced, far worse. Are annual two weeks of winter will arrive at some point.