Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

  On 12/10/2024 at 11:23 AM, A-L-E-K said:

zzzzzz and getting worse

wouldn't be surprised to see snow coverage in the lower 48 and record lows come xmas

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It's bad

[SchaumburgStormer]

  On 12/14/2024 at 10:55 PM, A-L-E-K said:

It's bad

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Winter cancel 

[RogueWaves]

  On 12/9/2024 at 4:45 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Believe me....I'd love to be wrong. But 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime winter.

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It was for our region ofc. I think after seeing that BAMwx vid, the ref to this winter being "like 13-14" in it's background pattern of a stretched PV versus splitting the PV is not those people saying "expect the same exact results". That would be extremely unlikely, but it could mean some other region benefits in a similar manner that we did with that back-drop. If it does happen, I think greatest effects relative to average will end up S and or E of us via seasonal suppression. Meaning the cold-n-wet connection finally happens later winter, when climo says congrats NIN and NOH southwards. 

[Baum]

I'm beginning to track cold rainstorms.

[Spartman]

00z GFS and Euro runs seem to push the torch back to just after Christmas. 

00z GFS wants to surprise us with snow on Christmas just before the anticipated late month torch arrives. 

[Spartman]

  On 12/14/2024 at 6:42 PM, nwohweather said:

It's pretty wild how entrenched the cold has become as quickly as it has. November was extremely warm and we golfed comfortably on the 17th as the temps were in the low 60s. Fast forward not even a month and we're routinely having highs below freezing and morning lows pushing the single digits. That is quite a drop in just a few weeks, it wouldn't shock me in the least to see a few robust snowstorms roll through this region in January/February

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November also had the 2nd latest freeze on record only behind November 25, 1931. The latest first freeze in 1931 was followed by the least snowiest winter of 1931-32.

[iluvsnow]

And to put the ultimate hex on snow for we weenies, BAMWX's updated snow forecast for Jan/Feb.

[cyclone77]

Has anyone posted the Farmers Almanac outlook yet?

[michsnowfreak]

  On 12/15/2024 at 11:55 AM, Spartman said:

November also had the 2nd latest freeze on record only behind November 25, 1931. The latest first freeze in 1931 was followed by the least snowiest winter of 1931-32.

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Chicago's late first freeze actually tied for 4th latest on record.

[SchaumburgStormer]

  On 12/15/2024 at 8:07 AM, Spartman said:

00z GFS and Euro runs seem to push the torch back to just after Christmas. 

00z GFS wants to surprise us with snow on Christmas just before the anticipated late month torch arrives. 

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Classic Kentucky centered map. Never change spartman. 

[Powerball]

  On 12/15/2024 at 2:16 PM, iluvsnow said:

And to put the ultimate hex on snow for we weenies, BAMWX's updated snow forecast for Jan/Feb.

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lol...

[DocATL]

  On 12/15/2024 at 6:22 PM, Powerball said:

 
lol...

I think JB messed with their graphic.

[Maxim]

  On 12/14/2024 at 6:58 PM, nwohweather said:

I don't agree with that. After today we will be at 9 of 14 days through the month with highs below 40 in Toledo. That's our average temperature in the 1st half of December, I'd say that's a pretty good stretch

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Not really anything to write home about tbh.

[Frog Town]

12Z Euro is a step in the right direction for wintry type weather through christmas for the majority of the sub.  Again, the warm keeps getting pushed down the road.  

[RogueWaves]

  On 12/15/2024 at 8:21 PM, Frog Town said:

12Z Euro is a step in the right direction for wintry type weather through christmas for the majority of the sub.  Again, the warm keeps getting pushed down the road.  

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That's very 13-14 like. 

[TheNiño]

I hate these last few winters can’t you nerds give me some hope? That’s what I lurk here for and you all are failing me. 

[TheNiño]

  On 12/15/2024 at 8:21 PM, Frog Town said:

12Z Euro is a step in the right direction for wintry type weather through christmas for the majority of the sub.  Again, the warm keeps getting pushed down the road.  

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Ok I missed this thank you good sir.

[Malacka11]

Oh what I would give to reel in a couple of nickel and dimers and cold to bridge the gap between them just for five days before Christmas. Instant two letter grade boost for the season right there

[Roger Smith]

Decent snow potential for IA-WI around Dec 30-31, colder pattern to follow, and Jan 12-14 is a good estimate of when there could be a major winter storm in all of the midwest.

[A-L-E-K]

Eps remain rough

[A-L-E-K]

  On 12/10/2024 at 11:23 AM, A-L-E-K said:

zzzzzz and getting worse

wouldn't be surprised to see snow coverage in the lower 48 at record lows come xmas

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[cyclone77]

  On 12/16/2024 at 9:45 AM, Roger Smith said:

Decent snow potential for IA-WI around Dec 30-31, colder pattern to follow, and Jan 12-14 is a good estimate of when there could be a major winter storm in all of the midwest.

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Just in time for my birthday again. 

[Frog Town]

  On 12/16/2024 at 10:30 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Eps remain rough

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Face value, yes, but haven't they been missing the cold more than 7-10 out??  

[michsnowfreak]

Idk about record low snowcover on Christmas in the lower 48. The lowest I found was 1957. There have been lots of low years. Unfortunately Mother Nature doesn't always follow a Christmas storybook.

[michsnowfreak]

  On 12/16/2024 at 1:25 PM, Frog Town said:

Face value, yes, but haven't they been missing the cold more than 7-10 out??  

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Euro weeklies bring cold back shortly after the new year, following a mild spell starting around Christmas 

[ChiTownSnow]

  On 12/16/2024 at 2:09 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Euro weeklies bring cold back shortly after the new year, following a mild spell starting around Christmas 

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Shortly after Christmas,   becomes shortly after new year, becomes mid January, becomes February we will be rocking..

[Maxim]

  On 12/16/2024 at 1:25 PM, Frog Town said:

Face value, yes, but haven't they been missing the cold more than 7-10 out??  

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I think it’s quite clear at this point the Xmas period into the end of the month is going to be warm for all of us. I didn’t believe it would be initially, but guidance has trended significantly warmer for that period. Question really is how warm. Could be anywhere from moderately above average to possibly record warm. Just have to wait and see.

[michsnowfreak]

  On 12/16/2024 at 2:11 PM, ChiTownSnow said:

Shortly after Christmas,   becomes shortly after new year, becomes mid January, becomes February we will be rocking..

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Actually the Euro weeklies have been consistent with that look. Besides, if you want to be technical theyve been overdoing warmth, not cold. Plus you should be more worried about an active pattern than temps. It's been a cold December, a stark contrast to what the models showed it would be, but its been quiet.

[Brian D]

  On 12/16/2024 at 12:48 PM, cyclone77 said:

Just in time for my birthday again. 

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My son's B-day is Jan 12. He turns 31. You know your getting old when your eldest is 40.  

[SchaumburgStormer]

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:14 PM, Brian D said:

My son's B-day is Jan 12. He turns 31. You know your getting old when your eldest is 40.  

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January party. My sons is the 14th (he’ll be 6) and mine is the 17th.

 

i demand double digit storms for all of the January birthdays