Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[hlcater]

Comatose this far west so far and probably until at least Christmas

[Stevo6899]

On 12/9/2024 at 11:45 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Believe me....I'd love to be wrong. But 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime winter.

Man I felt it in my gut in 2013 that I probably wouldn't witness another epic winter like it again. It felt like the roads were snow covered and iced over all winter. Here we are 11 years later and no winter has come close...

[Lightning]

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

This is late January type trolling. It’s early December, let’s maintain some dignity. 

I am not sure why putting the Stratospheric Warming signal in the long range discussion is considered as Trolling.  

[Lightning]

On 12/9/2024 at 11:45 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Believe me....I'd love to be wrong. But 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime winter.

I know you but I wonder how many people recall Detroit had 13 days above freezing in December 2013 .  Even the Dec. 1976 Detroit Dec. had 10 day above freezing.

[nwohweather]

On 12/9/2024 at 11:45 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Believe me....I'd love to be wrong. But 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime winter.

I don't think I'd like to see that again. It was absolutely wild & awesome at times, but our infrastructure really struggled to combat nearly 90" of snow. Toledo & Detroit are not built for that, it made getting around a complete nightmare in the countryside

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I don't think I'd like to see that again. It was absolutely wild & awesome at times, but our infrastructure really struggled to combat nearly 90" of snow. Toledo & Detroit are not built for that, it made getting around a complete nightmare in the countryside

96.2" here. Water content in snowpack was over 4" in feb.

[Danny8]

23 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

DT can definitely be a trip, but he is somewhat subjective unlike coldmisers like JB or some of the warmistas you'll see on the main weather forum of this board that forecast with nothing but their biases.

Ive said it many times before and will say many times again...we will have harsh winters again, but we will never have another 2013-14. It was a harsh winter for all in the midwest and northeast, but SE MI was basically ground zero. 

At this point it feels like being in the top 25 coldest winters in the historical record would qualify as “harsh winter”, but we hit a top 25 warmest summer and it’s considered “who cares” by much of the board

[Spartman]

Some improvement on today's 12z Euro regarding the first days of Astronomical Winter, yet still mild at Christmas.

[DocATL]

Some improvement on today's 12z Euro regarding the first days of Astronomical Winter, yet still mild at Christmas.

I ignore ensemble snow means unless I see pink and purple. Everything else is noise that won’t verify.

[SchaumburgStormer]

4 hours ago, Lightning said:

I am not sure why putting the Stratospheric Warming signal in the long range discussion is considered as Trolling.  

SSW discussion is the weenie 80 yard hail mary and we go through this every year.

Signal shows up on modeling, its going to "shake up the pattern", it gets pushed further and further out, and never makes a difference to sensible weather. 

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

SSW discussion is the weenie 80 yard hail mary and we go through this every year.

Signal shows up on modeling, its going to "shake up the pattern", it gets pushed further and further out, and never makes a difference to sensible weather. 

There are many things that shake up patterns. SSW talk is definitely overrated. Imo the most useful time for a cold/snowlover in the midwest to have a SSW would be mid-late or late winter. It can produce midwinter cold when climo is slowly warming up. But before mid December? Useless. Just stay away from any prolonged torches and roll the dice as we head deeper into winter.

[Chicago Storm]

some of ya'll need to get a grip.

[Chicago Storm]

On 11/26/2024 at 2:13 PM, Chicago Storm said:

late november and december have not been consistent "prime winter" in more than a decade.

 

11 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Didn't someone state December hasn't been a prime winter month in Chicago area going on a decade now. Warmth return seemed inevitable.

you got it.

[cyclone77]

Wonder if Green Day's working on a new song titled Wake Me Up When December Ends?

[Lightning]

Got it.  I am in the wrong place to talk about the Stratosphere, MJO, teleconnections, analogs and so on.  

[Powerball]

10 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Man I felt it in my gut in 2013 that I probably wouldn't witness another epic winter like it again. It felt like the roads were snow covered and iced over all winter. Here we are 11 years later and no winter has come close...

 

As far as the bolded, they were.

[nwohweather]

some of ya'll need to get a grip.

No kidding. If you were born in the summer of 2005 you would have seen 3 of the Top 5 snowiest Januaries and 4 of the top 5 snowiest Februaries in Toledo history. That’s quite incredible and shows how violent 21st century winters have been.

[Stevo6899]

Short memories and once you get a taste, you want more. Some people just gotta deal with weenies bitching and whining during slow weather times.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

i want to believe 

[Frog Town]

5 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

i want to believe 

Hail Canada!

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Man I felt it in my gut in 2013 that I probably wouldn't witness another epic winter like it again. It felt like the roads were snow covered and iced over all winter. Here we are 11 years later and no winter has come close...

The very next winter (2014-15) had deep, long lasting snowpack too, but agree that nothing came close to that winter since. In fact...nothing in the entire period of record touches 2013-14 for combo of snow, cold, wind, snow depth.

[Frog Town]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The very next winter (2014-15) had deep, long lasting snowpack too, but agree that nothing came close to that winter since. In fact...nothing in the entire period of record touches 2013-14 for combo of snow, cold, wind, snow depth.

2013-14 Winter was our '78 winter of yore that everyone talked about.  Just glad we got to experience and remember it.  

[Stevo6899]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The very next winter (2014-15) had deep, long lasting snowpack too, but agree that nothing came close to that winter since. In fact...nothing in the entire period of record touches 2013-14 for combo of snow, cold, wind, snow depth.

I think January we had almost 40 inches of snow, the most we've gotten in a month ever. 

[michsnowfreak]

18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I think January we had almost 40 inches of snow, the most we've gotten in a month ever. 

Yup. And that's in addition to the bitter cold. The combination of heavy snow with the cold defied climatology. 

[nvck]

11 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

i want to believe 

That 12 inches over cincy is more than we got in total last year, I believe.

[buckeye]

11 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

i want to believe 

...todays map says

don't bother wasting your faith

[buckeye]

23 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

96.2" here. Water content in snowpack was over 4" in feb.

I don't recall that much about '13-'14 here.   Was that the year there was a big cutter that went up through eastern IN sometime between xmas and new years and that's what really kicked off winter?   If so, we were on the warm side of that one, I remember that one was a kick in the nuts, especially since it was around or shortly after the holidays.

[DocATL]

...todays map says
don't bother wasting your faith

Or it says…great initial position before the northwest trend.


.

[michsnowfreak]

45 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I don't recall that much about '13-'14 here.   Was that the year there was a big cutter that went up through eastern IN sometime between xmas and new years and that's what really kicked off winter?   If so, we were on the warm side of that one, I remember that one was a kick in the nuts, especially since it was around or shortly after the holidays.

2013-14 is Columbus' 2nd snowiest winter on record with 56.4". Only 1909-10 saw more. Interestingly, while it was a cold winter there as well, it wasnt nearly as cold relative to normal as up here, ranking only as Columbus 28th coldest on record.

I do think you are remembering the storm of Dec 21/22, 2013. Columbus saw temps soar to 69F with 2.17" of rain (a half inch of snow did fall Christmas Eve however). Up here, we had rain and freezing rain, with a bad ice storm JUST to my north. What was interesting about it here, was that we had snow on the ground continuously from Dec 8 - Mar 29, but what had been an 8-inch snowpack whittled away to patches and piles on Dec 23rd and lasted for a few days. While Christmas had frozen patches, piles, and a fresh dusting, it wasnt an official White Christmas (we had T depth). Those few late Dec days centered on Christmas were the only such days we would see any grass until late mid-late March. 

 

 

[buckeye]

42 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

2013-14 is Columbus' 2nd snowiest winter on record with 56.4". Only 1909-10 saw more. Interestingly, while it was a cold winter there as well, it wasnt nearly as cold relative to normal as up here, ranking only as Columbus 28th coldest on record.

I do think you are remembering the storm of Dec 21/22, 2013. Columbus saw temps soar to 69F with 2.17" of rain (a half inch of snow did fall Christmas Eve however). Up here, we had rain and freezing rain, with a bad ice storm JUST to my north. What was interesting about it here, was that we had snow on the ground continuously from Dec 8 - Mar 29, but what had been an 8-inch snowpack whittled away to patches and piles on Dec 23rd and lasted for a few days. While Christmas had frozen patches, piles, and a fresh dusting, it wasnt an official White Christmas (we had T depth). Those few late Dec days centered on Christmas were the only such days we would see any grass until late mid-late March. 

 

 

Ok that's embarrassing.... no wonder the snow gods hate me, I'm a damn ingrate.