Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

21 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Hopefully in 12 hours we'll know if we're getting shit posted on or if there's actually any chance. Not falling for it that easy. I think the trend is there to some degree on other models too but I'm pretty sure that's happened the last two times as well

gonna be more than 12 hours to know that.

the upcoming pattern is the epitome of a thread the needle type pattern for anything interesting.

[Malacka11]

21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

gonna be more than 12 hours to know that.

the upcoming pattern is the epitome of a thread the needle type pattern for anything interesting.

Can I zelle you to start dropping an opinion here and there so that I can stop myself before saying something ignorant

 

To clarify though, I was referring strictly to the likelihood of whatever trend we might have here still being there tomorrow at all, not whether it still existing tomorrow would mean anything concrete.

[DocATL]

gonna be more than 12 hours to know that.
the upcoming pattern is the epitome of a thread the needle type pattern for anything interesting.

Admittedly I’ll take mid to upper 30’s and threading the needle over this miserable northwest flow. At least we have a chance.

I’ll also take low 50’s and sunny like this upcoming Sunday!!

[RogueWaves]

Winter continues Saturday:

[Stevo6899]

3 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Can I zelle you to start dropping an opinion here and there so that I can stop myself before saying something ignorant

 

To clarify though, I was referring strictly to the likelihood of whatever trend we might have here still being there tomorrow at all, not whether it still existing tomorrow would mean anything concrete.

Sounds like you could use a weekend at a cabin deep in a lake effect snow belt, buried.

[SchaumburgStormer]

16 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

tacked on another 0.2" last evening.

ord is up to 3.1" on the season. no shot at any sort of futility track for a least a month.

[iluvsnow]

BAMWX update this morning (12/6/24). Winter on halitus until late December or early Jan. But hope for a big winter month to start the new year. Technical discussion. Interesting.

 

[A-L-E-K]

Lol @ bamwx 

Bottom tier stuff imo

[Baum]

51 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Lol @ bamwx 

Bottom tier stuff imo

i dunno. the call for colder weather in january is a bold call. in recent times times are 10 days of winter comes in that month. If you really want to dig in. You'll find their implying a '13-14 repeat. 

[Cary67]

Can't recall over the past few winters bamwx having too good of a track record with long range winter forecasts. Although that's not a short list. Hopefully warmer pattern at least brings more precip chances

[cyclone77]

Decembers sure are lol worthy anymore.  We've definitely established a tradition the past several seasons.  

Exciting times ahead..

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

[nvck]

21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

i'll be back in sw ohio atp, and would definitely take 50s consistently over the mid-30s and no snow up here.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Baum said:

i dunno. the call for colder weather in january is a bold call. in recent times times are 10 days of winter comes in that month. If you really want to dig in. You'll find their implying a '13-14 repeat. 

A lot of model signals are showing a colder than avg Jan. I'm liking the looks of that month...but we aren't repeating 2013-14 lol

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Average highs are in the mid/upper 20s for my area come mid December, so a warm and wet pattern might turn out alright imby. 

[DocATL]

A lot of model signals are showing a colder than avg Jan. I'm liking the looks of that month...but we aren't repeating 2013-14 lol

I just hope that means the jet sets up a more favorable clipper pattern.

[DocATL]

BAMWX update this morning (12/6/24). Winter on halitus until late December or early Jan. But hope for a big winter month to start the new year. Technical discussion. Interesting.
 

So we get the same pattern we just had? Yuck…hope that’s wrong.

[sbnwx85]

Models showing another good lake effect event mid-week. The winds might be too westerly for my personal liking.

[Frog Town]

9 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Models showing another good lake effect event mid-week. The winds might be too westerly for my personal liking.

And then there's always the GEM festivus for the rest of us...

[Frog Town]

Alright, I know it's the 6Z GFS, but it's showing signs in the longer range of stubbornly holding onto the cold.  Seems like the TPV is making a big difference that the models are really struggling with as we go forward.  Case in point is this weeks cold shot being stronger than forecast 2 days ago.  While it's transient, I bet it lasts longer. .... #optimistic 

[Chicago916]

Funny to see the Wednesday trough keep trending West and slightly more negative. Too late for most of our Sub for a thread the needle on that system though. Maybe you guys in Ohio can somewhat cash in. 

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, Chicago916 said:

Funny to see the Wednesday trough keep trending West and slightly more negative. Too late for most of our Sub for a thread the needle on that system though. Maybe you guys in Ohio can somewhat cash in. 

Noticed that for sure but probably eastern Ohio, and some really good trends at the end of the 12Z run for a nice trajectory of the cold!  Just need to see this hold and jump to the ENS and more models.  

 

[Malacka11]

At least it looks like it'll stay active, for better or for worse. Nothing sucks imo like straight up forfeiting 2 weeks because nothing happens at all

[Frog Town]

GEFS are following suit with the cool down post 12/20.  All good signs so far today.  

[RogueWaves]

On 12/7/2024 at 1:47 PM, michsnowfreak said:

A lot of model signals are showing a colder than avg Jan. I'm liking the looks of that month...but we aren't repeating 2013-14 lol

Can I hold you to that?

[RogueWaves]

9 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Alright, I know it's the 6Z GFS, but it's showing signs in the longer range of stubbornly holding onto the cold.  Seems like the TPV is making a big difference that the models are really struggling with as we go forward.  Case in point is this weeks cold shot being stronger than forecast 2 days ago.  While it's transient, I bet it lasts longer. .... #optimistic 

And the MJO suddenly not so bullish on a Phase 6 romp. Baby steps..

[DocATL]

Problem is the trough position with every cold press is lousy and poorly timed.


.

[Spartman]

On 12/7/2024 at 1:47 PM, michsnowfreak said:

A lot of model signals are showing a colder than avg Jan. I'm liking the looks of that month...but we aren't repeating 2013-14 lol

What about repeating 2014-15 or 2015-16? The Decembers of those 2 winters were dumpster fires.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

What about repeating 2014-15 or 2015-16? The Decembers of those 2 winters were dumpster fires.

not here.

[Spartman]

Don't look at the 00z Euro, but it caves to the GFS as the cold in the medium-long range is all gone, hinting at a possible Christmas torch beyond the 360th hour.