iluvsnow Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 BAMWX CEO Michael Clark with a fresh (12/4) analysis of the month and a half ahead. A technical look at what's driving the coming warm period and what he sees beyond. Take it for what it's worth. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 On 11/26/2024 at 8:06 AM, Lightning said: Excited to have cold end of Nov. into early Dec. Hopefully Lake Michigan provides some decent LES starting Friday into next week. Beyond that MJO is currently beginning to go into 4-5-6. Those are not cold phases especially as you get into the heart of December!! What is worse is the models are starting to shows it dragging and possibly stalling in 5. Blast on through those phases and it would be fine but stalling / dragging through them . If the MJO doesn't change or another signal take over then mild will return mid-month December. I am excited for the next couple weeks and believe there should get some snows out this even though the Thanksgiving storm has gone south on us. Hopefully the actual MJO will not follow the models well and move quicker toward Phase 7 or dive into COD. What a dumbass who posted this!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 4 hours ago, iluvsnow said: BAMWX CEO Michael Clark with a fresh (12/4) analysis of the month and a half ahead. A technical look at what's driving the coming warm period and what he sees beyond. Take it for what it's worth. Love it. Pretty much matches my expectations for next several weeks. Really hoping we can get the cold to come back by the 25th but agree it it probably too quick based on the MJO forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 6 hours ago, Lightning said: Love it. Pretty much matches my expectations for next several weeks. Really hoping we can get the cold to come back by the 25th but agree it it probably too quick based on the MJO forecasts. Yea looking at the mjo it looks like it's been dancing in the warm phases for sometime and will continue to do so....and here we are facing subzero windchills tomorrow. OTOH the AO, NAO, and PNA, , (at least the gefs versions), seem to be behaving like what you'd expect with our actual weather. It seems like the opposite of recent winters, this time the cold is really fighting back. The eastern trough is stubborn as hell too, granted just a bit too far east for what's ideal for this sub. Personally it's too damn early for this. The ground is already frozen beyond workability. Last few winters the ground rarely froze beyond a week or two and it didn't occur until Jan/Feb. Maybe this is global warmings version of Dec 1989 and just like then, once the cold exits, winter's over. I wish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Waiting for this with open arms!. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 3 hours ago, buckeye said: Yea looking at the mjo it looks like it's been dancing in the warm phases for sometime and will continue to do so....and here we are facing subzero windchills tomorrow. OTOH the AO, NAO, and PNA, , (at least the gefs versions), seem to be behaving like what you'd expect with our actual weather. It seems like the opposite of recent winters, this time the cold is really fighting back. The eastern trough is stubborn as hell too, granted just a bit too far east for what's ideal for this sub. Personally it's too damn early for this. The ground is already frozen beyond workability. Last few winters the ground rarely froze beyond a week or two and it didn't occur until Jan/Feb. Maybe this is global warmings version of Dec 1989 and just like then, once the cold exits, winter's over. I wish. Last year was horrible in that even if one signal was warm it WON!! It is nice to see there is more fight this December for the cold signals. I don't believe we will follow the same path of Dec 1989 => 1990. I think we will be seeing some Strat warming as we get into later part of December. I believe/hope we are headed for some fun ahead this winter. One thing is for sure the weather does things differently every year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 On 11/26/2024 at 5:38 AM, A-L-E-K said: eps about as bad as it gets, punting a month of prime winter is never ideal Happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Happens You don’t like it if it’s cold and you don’t like it if it’s warm. You only want a record breaking storm which is unrealistic. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, roardog said: You don’t like it if it’s cold and you don’t like it if it’s warm. You only want a record breaking storm which is unrealistic. lol Or a respectable storm. This northwest flow is garbage and useless cold, unless you're in a snowbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Looks like a chance for some flurries next Wednesday, and maybe a rainer around the 16th. Looking pretty benign through xmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Interesting read. Could be all hype but idk..Gen Cast has already outperformed major American models "To rigorously evaluate GenCast's performance, we trained it on historical weather data up to 2018, and tested it on data from 2019. GenCast showed better forecasting skill than ECMWF’s ENS, the top operational ensemble forecasting system that many national and local decisions depend upon every day. We comprehensively tested both systems, looking at forecasts of different variables at different lead times — 1320 combinations in total. GenCast was more accurate than ENS on 97.2% of these targets, and on 99.8% at lead times greater than 36 hours." https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gencast-predicts-weather-and-the-risks-of-extreme-conditions-with-sota-accuracy/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 extended looks dog water, what once was looking like bucking the trend of clunker decembers, the trend now is alive and well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, Chambana said: extended looks dog water, what once was looking like bucking the trend of clunker decembers, the trend now is alive and well. When you can run the gfs out to 384 with no fantasy land snow at all, you know its going to be a real winner of a month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 38 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: When you can run the gfs out to 384 with no fantasy land snow at all, you know its going to be a real winner of a month. Yeah, situation is looking dire. I’m a snow for the holidays guy, and winter starting mid January now a days is driving me insane. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Watch around here the biggest storm of the season will end up being the November 21st storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 When you can run the gfs out to 384 with no fantasy land snow at all, you know its going to be a real winner of a month. The system next week is one to watch for trends. It was a tick slower and northwest on the GFS.After that some good opportunities for some beneficial rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 if u are into snow, it's never good to punt december hope things turn late month but the GEFS are ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 3 hours ago, Chambana said: ...and winter starting mid January now a days is driving me insane. that's the kick in the nuts, and then when you bend over in agony the club to the back of your head is winter dragging through April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: if u are into snow, it's never good to punt december hope things turn late month but the GEFS are ugly Cant wait for the futility thread revival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Well things are going swimmingly in this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 48 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Cant wait for the futility thread revival. 4" november event really fucked that one over huh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Manifesting another Christmas Eve blizzard rn dont worry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 55 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 4" november event really fucked that one over huh tacked on another 0.2" last evening. ord is up to 3.1" on the season. no shot at any sort of futility track for a least a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5 Author Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Cant wait for the futility thread revival. We made it to December 5th before the first appearance of the word futility. About on par with most years I'd say 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Can we, like, all agree to take up knitting or something? I'm getting really tired of being in an emotionally abusive relationship with fucking clouds. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 MLI with 0.4" for the season so far, and a departure of -3.1". Dubuque with 0.6", a departure of -4.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, Malacka11 said: Can we, like, all agree to take up knitting or something? I'm getting really tired of being in an emotionally abusive relationship with fucking clouds. It's amazing how much the sun and 77 degrees helps mentally and physically. My knees been killing me past few weeks. Past 2 days in florida, no pain. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 As much as I hate to disturb a pity party, the system for next Tuesday/Wednesday bears watching. Goofus wants to throw us a bone in northern Illinois. Slows the wave outbid the southwest down enough to catch some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 3 minutes ago, DocATL said: As much as I hate to disturb a pity party, the system for next Tuesday/Wednesday bears watching. Goofus wants to throw us a bone in northern Illinois. Slows the wave outbid the southwest down enough to catch some cold air. . Hopefully in 12 hours we'll know if we're getting shit posted on or if there's actually any chance. Not falling for it that easy. I think the trend is there to some degree on other models too but I'm pretty sure that's happened the last two times as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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