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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion


michsnowfreak
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We just need to be patient until Mid December when the mean trough repositions itself to benefit our sub forum.  We've waited like 7 years(2017 was last time we had this) so two weeks of a clipper pattern could be worse.  Common people!  

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10 hours ago, Frog Town said:

We just need to be patient until Mid December when the mean trough repositions itself to benefit our sub forum.  We've waited like 7 years(2017 was last time we had this) so two weeks of a clipper pattern could be worse.  Common people!  

There are many of us on the outside of this clipper pattern though.  

It's early and of course our time will eventually come, but this feels like a giant waste of cold for some of us in the sub.

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

There are many of us on the outside of this clipper pattern though.  

It's early and of course our time will eventually come, but this feels like a giant waste of cold for some of us in the sub.

Feels like a waste here so far. But clipper looms keeping hopes alive.

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INCLUDING THE CITIES OF EDWARDSVILLE, ALTON, CENTRALIA, SAINT  
CHARLES, SAINT LOUIS, SALEM, LITCHFIELD, CAHOKIA, VANDALIA, AND  
BELLEVILLE  
311 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8   
PM CST THIS EVENING...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 5   
  INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EAST   
  CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.  

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Zzzzzz
Pattern remains a dud outside eastern lake belts

Looks good for the Deep South, too! It’s one Op run though. The EPS snow mean is dreadful though so we’ll need to get through this pattern before we get anything worthwhile for many of us.
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2 hours ago, Baum said:

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF EDWARDSVILLE, ALTON, CENTRALIA, SAINT  
CHARLES, SAINT LOUIS, SALEM, LITCHFIELD, CAHOKIA, VANDALIA, AND  
BELLEVILLE  
311 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8   
PM CST THIS EVENING...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 5   
  INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EAST   
  CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.  

Wrong thread champ

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On 11/25/2024 at 2:52 PM, Brian D said:

Looking at Dec from my modelling method, I'm going with colder early Dec, but a switch in mid Dec to a milder, wetter pattern (more stm chance my way), before things switch out after the solstice to a colder pattern again. Actually could see an avg to below (possibly well below for some) Dec in the books to end the year for sub as a whole. We shall see. 

Looks like the models are trying to work out an active stm pattern as they close in on mid Dec. That's what I'm seeing too. Hopefully I will get in on some good synoptic/lake enhanced snows. 

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"Looking out beyond day 7 into the 2nd week of December, the large scale pattern may become supportive of a larger, moisture laden storm system somewhere in the Midwest. Needless to say, this idea is subject to change, though has some ensemble support and we`ll be keeping an eye on it. Chances for any widespread noteworthy accumulating snow and travel impacts are low until a pattern change can occur.

 

Castro"

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2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

"Looking out beyond day 7 into the 2nd week of December, the large scale pattern may become supportive of a larger, moisture laden storm system somewhere in the Midwest. Needless to say, this idea is subject to change, though has some ensemble support and we`ll be keeping an eye on it. Chances for any widespread noteworthy accumulating snow and travel impacts are low until a pattern change can occur.

 

Castro"

We all know the cold with back off just as a low pressure ejects out of the rockies and/or 4 corners, we all end up with precip issues/most likely rain while msp cashes.

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35 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

We all know the cold with back off just as a low pressure ejects out of the rockies and/or 4 corners, we all end up with precip issues/most likely rain while msp cashes.

At this stage let's just be thankful there's a signal for a storm in the he vicinity

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58 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's east to be skeptical when there hasn't been a big time winter storm, at least imby, for 5 winters.

I'm right there with you, king. My last decent storm was early February of 2021, but it was really just 10" of concrete that fell fairly unremarkably. It was a good snow for sure, but never supposed to be a big dog type of situation. The last actual dawg was for sure GHDII, but totals aside, that storm wasn't really a nuke either, of course. GHDI is the first and only "real shit" blizzard I've ever experienced (moved here from Germany in 2008), and I'll be biding my time until whenever a storm matches it. It's hard to grasp the rarity of a storm like that when one happens after just a couple years of living somewhere.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know we have different versions of big storms, but last double digit storm at DTW was Feb 2021.

Perhaps I am overlooking that one but it was prob jackpot south towards you. Last storm I recall was the Nov veterans storm I mentioned yesterday in 2019.

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55 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Perhaps I am overlooking that one but it was prob jackpot south towards you. Last storm I recall was the Nov veterans storm I mentioned yesterday in 2019.

Yep. DTW south to KTOL were in the jack zone. Typical when such an overwhelmingly cold pattern's in place. That's TOL's best and only real chance so I'm not upset if they score in such a pattern. Iirc, GHD-2 also treated them well.

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3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

We all know the cold with back off just as a low pressure ejects out of the rockies and/or 4 corners, we all end up with precip issues/most likely rain while msp cashes.

Certainly, early in the season climo does NOT favor SEMI. Feb and March do. Still, MSP had their record season couple years back. I don't think they will own the magnet this winter. I think SEMI will do much better than recent winters and certainly better than last year. 

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4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yes I was but I still keep track when im down there and was ready to fly back for a snowstorm. I never had to fly back once lol 

Begs the question "just what's worth flying home for?"  I mean, 12+ not too common in Detroit region.

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12 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Certainly, early in the season climo does NOT favor SEMI. Feb and March do. Still, MSP had their record season couple years back. I don't think they will own the magnet this winter. I think SEMI will do much better than recent winters and certainly better than last year. 

Yeah I'm not saying they are going to be the magnet but they usually have to cash in first before we get in on some snow. I've seen this b4. If we don't take advantage of the cold we'll be fighting precip issues when a storm does come around.

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1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yeah I'm not saying they are going to be the magnet but they usually have to cash in first before we get in on some snow. I've seen this b4. If we don't take advantage of the cold we'll be fighting precip issues when a storm does come around.

There's no arguing that. Most frustrating thing of my 3 winters in Wayne Cnty. 

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1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Dbl digit less than 20 hour duration. 

So, Feb 2021 with 14" at DTW pretty sure that qualified, just not sure how it was up where you are? I was in Marshall for that one, and it was an intense 10" storm complete with some nice winds. 

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Yep. DTW south to KTOL were in the jack zone. Typical when such an overwhelmingly cold pattern's in place. That's TOL's best and only real chance so I'm not upset if they score in such a pattern. Iirc, GHD-2 also treated them well.

GHDII jackpotted DTW-downriver with 16-17". DTW had 16.7", TOL had 12.0".

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