Frog Town Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 We just need to be patient until Mid December when the mean trough repositions itself to benefit our sub forum. We've waited like 7 years(2017 was last time we had this) so two weeks of a clipper pattern could be worse. Common people! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 2 hours ago, Frog Town said: It's November and it's cold! Adderall anyone?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 ZzzzzzNorthwest flow will put you to sleep for sure. A cozy bed helps.On the bright side we will squeeze flakes out of even the tiniest amounts of precipitable water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 10 hours ago, Frog Town said: We just need to be patient until Mid December when the mean trough repositions itself to benefit our sub forum. We've waited like 7 years(2017 was last time we had this) so two weeks of a clipper pattern could be worse. Common people! There are many of us on the outside of this clipper pattern though. It's early and of course our time will eventually come, but this feels like a giant waste of cold for some of us in the sub. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: There are many of us on the outside of this clipper pattern though. It's early and of course our time will eventually come, but this feels like a giant waste of cold for some of us in the sub. Feels like a waste here so far. But clipper looms keeping hopes alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Zzzzzz Pattern remains a dud outside eastern lake belts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF EDWARDSVILLE, ALTON, CENTRALIA, SAINT CHARLES, SAINT LOUIS, SALEM, LITCHFIELD, CAHOKIA, VANDALIA, AND BELLEVILLE 311 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. * WHEN...FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Zzzzzz Pattern remains a dud outside eastern lake beltsLooks good for the Deep South, too! It’s one Op run though. The EPS snow mean is dreadful though so we’ll need to get through this pattern before we get anything worthwhile for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 hours ago, Baum said: INCLUDING THE CITIES OF EDWARDSVILLE, ALTON, CENTRALIA, SAINT CHARLES, SAINT LOUIS, SALEM, LITCHFIELD, CAHOKIA, VANDALIA, AND BELLEVILLE 311 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. * WHEN...FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. Wrong thread champ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 On 11/25/2024 at 2:52 PM, Brian D said: Looking at Dec from my modelling method, I'm going with colder early Dec, but a switch in mid Dec to a milder, wetter pattern (more stm chance my way), before things switch out after the solstice to a colder pattern again. Actually could see an avg to below (possibly well below for some) Dec in the books to end the year for sub as a whole. We shall see. Looks like the models are trying to work out an active stm pattern as they close in on mid Dec. That's what I'm seeing too. Hopefully I will get in on some good synoptic/lake enhanced snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 GFS has active period after next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 "Looking out beyond day 7 into the 2nd week of December, the large scale pattern may become supportive of a larger, moisture laden storm system somewhere in the Midwest. Needless to say, this idea is subject to change, though has some ensemble support and we`ll be keeping an eye on it. Chances for any widespread noteworthy accumulating snow and travel impacts are low until a pattern change can occur. Castro" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: "Looking out beyond day 7 into the 2nd week of December, the large scale pattern may become supportive of a larger, moisture laden storm system somewhere in the Midwest. Needless to say, this idea is subject to change, though has some ensemble support and we`ll be keeping an eye on it. Chances for any widespread noteworthy accumulating snow and travel impacts are low until a pattern change can occur. Castro" We all know the cold with back off just as a low pressure ejects out of the rockies and/or 4 corners, we all end up with precip issues/most likely rain while msp cashes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 35 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: We all know the cold with back off just as a low pressure ejects out of the rockies and/or 4 corners, we all end up with precip issues/most likely rain while msp cashes. At this stage let's just be thankful there's a signal for a storm in the he vicinity 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said: At this stage let's just be thankful there's a signal for a storm in the he vicinity It's easy to be skeptical when there hasn't been a big time winter storm, at least imby, for 5 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 15 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It's east to be skeptical when there hasn't been a big time winter storm, at least imby, for 5 winters. I know we have different versions of big storms, but last double digit storm at DTW was Feb 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 58 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It's east to be skeptical when there hasn't been a big time winter storm, at least imby, for 5 winters. I'm right there with you, king. My last decent storm was early February of 2021, but it was really just 10" of concrete that fell fairly unremarkably. It was a good snow for sure, but never supposed to be a big dog type of situation. The last actual dawg was for sure GHDII, but totals aside, that storm wasn't really a nuke either, of course. GHDI is the first and only "real shit" blizzard I've ever experienced (moved here from Germany in 2008), and I'll be biding my time until whenever a storm matches it. It's hard to grasp the rarity of a storm like that when one happens after just a couple years of living somewhere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I know we have different versions of big storms, but last double digit storm at DTW was Feb 2021. Perhaps I am overlooking that one but it was prob jackpot south towards you. Last storm I recall was the Nov veterans storm I mentioned yesterday in 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 55 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Perhaps I am overlooking that one but it was prob jackpot south towards you. Last storm I recall was the Nov veterans storm I mentioned yesterday in 2019. Yep. DTW south to KTOL were in the jack zone. Typical when such an overwhelmingly cold pattern's in place. That's TOL's best and only real chance so I'm not upset if they score in such a pattern. Iirc, GHD-2 also treated them well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: We all know the cold with back off just as a low pressure ejects out of the rockies and/or 4 corners, we all end up with precip issues/most likely rain while msp cashes. Certainly, early in the season climo does NOT favor SEMI. Feb and March do. Still, MSP had their record season couple years back. I don't think they will own the magnet this winter. I think SEMI will do much better than recent winters and certainly better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: Perhaps I am overlooking that one but it was prob jackpot south towards you. Last storm I recall was the Nov veterans storm I mentioned yesterday in 2019. Weren't you in FL during that Feb 2021 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Weren't you in FL during that Feb 2021 storm? Yes I was but I still keep track when im down there and was ready to fly back for a snowstorm. I never had to fly back once lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Yes I was but I still keep track when im down there and was ready to fly back for a snowstorm. I never had to fly back once lol Begs the question "just what's worth flying home for?" I mean, 12+ not too common in Detroit region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 12 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Certainly, early in the season climo does NOT favor SEMI. Feb and March do. Still, MSP had their record season couple years back. I don't think they will own the magnet this winter. I think SEMI will do much better than recent winters and certainly better than last year. Yeah I'm not saying they are going to be the magnet but they usually have to cash in first before we get in on some snow. I've seen this b4. If we don't take advantage of the cold we'll be fighting precip issues when a storm does come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Just now, RogueWaves said: Begs the question "just what's worth flying home for?" Dbl digit less than 20 hour duration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Yeah I'm not saying they are going to be the magnet but they usually have to cash in first before we get in on some snow. I've seen this b4. If we don't take advantage of the cold we'll be fighting precip issues when a storm does come around. There's no arguing that. Most frustrating thing of my 3 winters in Wayne Cnty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Dbl digit less than 20 hour duration. So, Feb 2021 with 14" at DTW pretty sure that qualified, just not sure how it was up where you are? I was in Marshall for that one, and it was an intense 10" storm complete with some nice winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1 Author Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Yep. DTW south to KTOL were in the jack zone. Typical when such an overwhelmingly cold pattern's in place. That's TOL's best and only real chance so I'm not upset if they score in such a pattern. Iirc, GHD-2 also treated them well. GHDII jackpotted DTW-downriver with 16-17". DTW had 16.7", TOL had 12.0". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 At this stage let's just be thankful there's a signal for a storm in the he vicinityNot much of a signal on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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