Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

LMAO. I have him blocked so i only see stuff if someone quotes him. Someone needs reading comprehension Im guessing. Apparently since 2024 has been a warm year, the cold pattern coming up cant be called a cold pattern. . Im very worried about being at 11% of avg snowfall thru November 21st though. Back in 2019, we were at 1,188% of avg snowfall as of November 21st, and that imminently led to a season of 1,188% snowfall I assume (I just have to confirm DTW saw 53,460 inches of snow in 2019-20). 

You don't need to tell me math is not your forte. Actually, you were 1055.6% of normal that year. 9.5/0.9 = 10.556.  And 1055.6% of your normal of 45 inches is 475 inches, not 53,460 inches. You're only off by a couple of orders of magnitude. That would be 1188 times your normal snowfall or 118,800% of normal. 

[sbnwx85]

Sick burn.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

Looks like we are absolutely getting the cold. Now if we can get the storm track.


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Since youre relatively new to the midwest, I will tell you that if we can get a clipper pattern going, that is fun as well!

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Sick burn.

Yikes, I did have that math off. However shall I recover from being burned by an agenda pushing troll who annoys almost every poster in every subforum with excessive cherry picked drivel. 

[michsnowfreak]

Its kind of a given, but if the ingredients come together right, there could be some major LES in the coming weeks. Your talking well above avg lake water temps and well below avg air temps to end November and start December. Theres going to be some regardless, but already will have a few of the key ingredients in place for a major outbreak.

[sbnwx85]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its kind of a given, but if the ingredients come together right, there could be some major LES in the coming weeks. Your talking well above avg lake water temps and well below avg air temps to end November and start December. Theres going to be some regardless, but already will have a few of the key ingredients in place for a major outbreak.

To your point... in my amateurish observations over the years you can basically double whatever the global models put out in terms of lake-effect. Both GFS and Euro are spitting out about a foot in SW Michigan between Black Friday and the following Tuesday. Could be some big boy totals when all is said and done!

[DocATL]

Since youre relatively new to the midwest, I will tell you that if we can get a clipper pattern going, that is fun as well!

That’s true. From what I’ve seen, those are near term events in that you really need to have the conditions established first and then things start to show up in the models a few days out.


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[Frog Town]

This pattern is turning out very December 2000ish..  That was a crazy cold and snowy December that quickly turned into a mild January/Feb.   I believe we had 15+" on the ground for for Christmas that year in Toledo.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

18 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

This pattern is turning out very December 2000ish

Don’t tease the Chicago crew with that reference. What a month to be a kid. 

[Geoboy645]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its kind of a given, but if the ingredients come together right, there could be some major LES in the coming weeks. Your talking well above avg lake water temps and well below avg air temps to end November and start December. Theres going to be some regardless, but already will have a few of the key ingredients in place for a major outbreak.

Yeah this feels like the pattern that we have managed to somehow avoid the last few years where the LES belts just go on overdrive, for everyone in the belts. We've seen how it's been for Buffalo with the well-above average water temps (LSTs?) and favorable cold air and wind direction. We haven't seen that with a NW-flow event in quite a while while the lakes have been at the early season max for temps. Will be interesting to watch over the next couple weeks here. 

[Chicago Storm]

6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You don't need to tell me math is not your forte. Actually, you were 1055.6% of normal that year. 9.5/0.9 = 10.556.  And 1055.6% of your normal of 45 inches is 475 inches, not 53,460 inches. You're only off by a couple of orders of magnitude. That would be 1188 times your normal snowfall or 118,800% of normal. 

you were a middle child, weren't you.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, DocATL said:

That’s true. From what I’ve seen, those are near term events in that you really need to have the conditions established first and then things start to show up in the models a few days out.


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Yes that's exactly right. You know you're in a clipper pattern, but some modeled events fade away and others can surprise and pop up out of nowhere.

[snowman33]

GFS has been consistently showing a clipper signal 11/30-12/1. Hoping I can see some football in the snow that weekend. 

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, snowman33 said:

GFS has been consistently showing a clipper signal 11/30-12/1. Hoping I can see some football in the snow that weekend. 

My family is going to cut down our Christmas trees Sun, Dec 1st. How fun would that be to have it snow!

[cyclone77]

Euro seems to be baby stepping the Wed/Thu system back into the right direction.  Hope trends continue.. 

[sbnwx85]

GFS making a baby step in the right direction too. Still too far south for me but at least it’s showing snow again for some areas.

[A-L-E-K]

Riding the ggem

[DocATL]

Riding the ggem

I like what the Canadian has cooking.

[Malacka11]

It would be great if we could finesse our way back to something especially this close out suddenly

[Malacka11]

GEFS looks a little better overall too. At least generally supportive of it maybe snowing for someone, which you got to be grateful for what you get these days

[Chicago916]

Low resolution caveats apply, but seems like some hints at LE on the Illinois side even with a miss South.

[Malacka11]

We're so back

[OrdIowPitMsp]

384hr 12z GFS pitches a near precipitation shutout for my area. Frost depths are going to be deep. 

[cyclone77]

Changed the oil in the snow blower this morning, let's go!

[Malacka11]

Me waiting for somebody to finally hope post after the euro

[Baum]

Quick model analysis says euro makes the most sense from a what's good for my back yard perspective.

[RCNYILWX]

The potential has definitely upticked per the 12z cycle. Euro/EPS showed the most impressive bump but there's also a decent amount of spicy GEFS members.

Not a huge fan of relying on phasing over the Rockies for the more juiced system given the confluence caused by the PV lobe over southeastern Canada.
As a result, for interests in the northern half of DVN to LOT and points north, there may be a relative northward limit in the sfc low track in this sort of evolution even with phasing occurring. Obviously early enough in the game though for noteworthy changes in the whole setup still, for better or for worse.

I wrote the long term AFD for LOT today, which also covered the cold shot beyond whatever happens Wednesday-Thursday. Chances have also upticked for WAA/fronto type snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

[sbnwx85]

Eye candy. 12z Euro kuchera post-Thanksgiving Day system, post-lake-effect, and end of run.

[Chinook]

some crazy ensembles with some ensembles with heavy snow at Chicago, Indianapolis, almost St. Louis

[Stevo6899]

Models are trending less wound up with the early week wave which allows heights to build a bit allowing for less suppression with our potential. Obvious as rc has stated, when you rely on phasing, its a toss up.