Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

Time to get the (snow)ball rolling!

 

Per @OHweather

Well I'd roll these dice if this pattern evolution is close to correct. It would be reasonably cold with snow opportunities for most of the sub-forum from late next week through probably the first 10-15 days of December. The pattern looks panhandle hook/cutter-ish initially the end of November and looks more clipper-ish by a week into December. 

[A-L-E-K]

this is our moment

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

this is our moment

jealous of the heavy snow in chicago and milwaukee, even though itll melt by nightfall probably. My nephews were so excited at the first dusting of snow this morning. Whether you like the long-haul of winter or get tired of it by Jan, unless you hate all things winter, theres nothing like the excitement when the snow season is just beginning.

[Stevo6899]

Euro bringing the turkey week potential out in pieces, thus southern sliders and not a more NW strong solution. It'd be nice to cash in early and get off to a rare good start.

[hawkeye_wx]

The latest models have trended away from a good snow event.  Instead, we get a fast zonal to nw flow that shears out any decent energy and suppresses moisture.  This morning's Euro hardly has a sprinkle or flake here through ten days.

[roardog]

That medium range look on the ensembles are a cold but dry look that's ripe for clippers. That's a pattern we haven't seen in like 70 years. Ok, maybe that's an exaggeration but it's been a long time since we've seen a pattern like the one shown.

[Baum]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

That medium range look on the ensembles are a cold but dry look that's ripe for clippers. That's a pattern we haven't seen in like 70 years. Ok, maybe that's an exaggeration but it's been a long time since we've seen a pattern like the one shown.

in 24 hours we've gone from a spread the wealth possible T-Day Midwest/ OV event to hoping for the long rumored clipper pattern prayer? At least it's not February.

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, Baum said:

in 24 hours we've gone from a spread the wealth possible T-Day Midwest/ OV event to hoping for the long rumored clipper pattern prayer? At least it's not February.

I'd rather have a cold and dry pattern that at least gets arctic air established in the area so that when moisture does come back you have a good chance of something wintry as opposed to the garbage in recent winters where every system is thread the needle slush balls falling from the clouds that take an hour just to start to accumulate. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Arctic air means the lakes freeze up and the ski hills can make snow. Hopefully as we get closer the hi-res models sniff out some clippers. Upcoming pattern bodes well for the winter outdoor activity industry here.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I'd rather have a cold and dry pattern that at least gets arctic air established in the area so that when moisture does come back you have a good chance of something wintry as opposed to the garbage in recent winters where every system is thread the needle slush balls falling from the clouds that take an hour just to start to accumulate. 

Agreed. Unfortunately, recency bias about December gives me the shakes and nightmares about a slew of stat posts by the Climate Changer.

[Chambana]

Time to finally buck the trend of mild December’s, the last decade has been dominated by them. The T-day/Black Friday storm looks intriguing. 

[Baum]

https://x.com/nilwxreports/status/1859741033296429412

 

no clue on the validity, but it sound good.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

I'd rather have a cold and dry pattern that at least gets arctic air established in the area so that when moisture does come back you have a good chance of something wintry as opposed to the garbage in recent winters where every system is thread the needle slush balls falling from the clouds that take an hour just to start to accumulate. 

Good point. We have had some really dynamic storms in the milder winters that have produced postcard scenes but are heart attacks waiting to happen while shoveling and a waste of some snow qpf due to low ratios. A clipper pattern early in the season with arctic air and warm lakes is not a bad idea.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Arctic air means the lakes freeze up and the ski hills can make snow. Hopefully as we get closer the hi-res models sniff out some clippers. Upcoming pattern bodes well for the winter outdoor activity industry here.

Another good point. Perfect for all the ski resorts to get lots of snow made for an early base.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Baum said:

Agreed. Unfortunately, recency bias about December gives me the shakes and nightmares about a slew of stat posts by the Climate Changer.

He will likely lay low as he normally does during cold patterns. 

[Malacka11]

I think full hope in the Thxgiving storm will be restored w tonight's runs

[sbnwx85]

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I think full hope in the Thxgiving storm will be restored w tonight's runs

Love the optimism. You can tell it's early in the season.

[Malacka11]

30 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Love the optimism. You can tell it's early in the season.

True but also smooth-brained optimism is kind of my schtick because I refuse to let some clouds dictate my disposition like that. Last year cooked me though not gonna lie. 

Also real shit I saw the Icon had already come in with something fairly decent so I thought I'd shoot my shot

[sbnwx85]

I’ll take the cold blast starting the weekend after Thanksgiving. 

[mannynyc]

GEFS ensembles hinting at the possibility of something next week but it's still all over the place.

[WestMichigan]

6 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

I’ll take the cold blast starting the weekend after Thanksgiving. 

Depending on the wind either you or I should be able to take advantage of the lake assuming the cold materializes.

[Lightning]

No sustained blocking.  Pacific is a bit of mess.  MJO going into warm phases a bit.  December may start with some cold but unless something changes it will progress to mild during first half of December.   

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Lightning said:

No sustained blocking.  Pacific is a bit of mess.  MJO going into warm phases a bit.  December may start with some cold but unless something changes it will progress to mild during first half of December.   

I'm actually pleasantly surprised how December looks to start with well below average temps. Until very recently Dec was looking mild, so this is a treat. I'll worry about mid December and beyond later. Not going to start extrapolating the 384 hr gfs 

[TheClimateChanger]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

He will likely lay low as he normally does during cold patterns. 

"Cold" patterns. Detroit is currently 7.2F above normal for the month. Seasonal snowfall stands at 11 percent of normal, while Flint and Saginaw are at 0 percent of normal.

For the year today, it has been the hottest year on record in Detroit history, nearly a half degree warmer than 2012.

And, god forbid, if City Airport was still the official observation site, wow!

[A-L-E-K]

cad days 

 

[nwohweather]

Encouraging to see on the long range solid cold entrenching itself over WCAN

[Chicago Storm]

"Cold" patterns. Detroit is currently 7.2F above normal for the month. Seasonal snowfall stands at 11 percent of normal, while Flint and Saginaw are at 0 percent of normal.
For the year today, it has been the hottest year on record in Detroit history, nearly a half degree warmer than 2012.

And, god forbid, if City Airport was still the official observation site, wow!

lol

[michsnowfreak]

30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

lol

LMAO. I have him blocked so i only see stuff if someone quotes him. Someone needs reading comprehension Im guessing. Apparently since 2024 has been a warm year, the cold pattern coming up cant be called a cold pattern. . Im very worried about being at 11% of avg snowfall thru November 21st though. Back in 2019, we were at 1,188% of avg snowfall as of November 21st, and that imminently led to a season of 1,188% snowfall I assume (I just have to confirm DTW saw 53,460 inches of snow in 2019-20). 

[DocATL]

Looks like we are absolutely getting the cold. Now if we can get the storm track.


.

[Lightning]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm actually pleasantly surprised how December looks to start with well below average temps. Until very recently Dec was looking mild, so this is a treat. I'll worry about mid December and beyond later. Not going to start extrapolating the 384 hr gfs 

Don't take me wrong.  My comments were mostly referring to the constant changes we are seeing the models.  Just this 12Z run alone is a bit better overall.  My point was that while are seeing variable cold runs in which there are some mild signals which I believe is causing the model variability.   If the MJO ends up more around/in the COD, instead of moderate in the warm phases, that will help allow other colder signals to have more pattern power.

You know I want it blistering cold with lots of LES and super-clippers!!