michsnowfreak Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Time to get the (snow)ball rolling! Per @OHweather Well I'd roll these dice if this pattern evolution is close to correct. It would be reasonably cold with snow opportunities for most of the sub-forum from late next week through probably the first 10-15 days of December. The pattern looks panhandle hook/cutter-ish initially the end of November and looks more clipper-ish by a week into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 this is our moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21 Author Share Posted November 21 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: this is our moment jealous of the heavy snow in chicago and milwaukee, even though itll melt by nightfall probably. My nephews were so excited at the first dusting of snow this morning. Whether you like the long-haul of winter or get tired of it by Jan, unless you hate all things winter, theres nothing like the excitement when the snow season is just beginning. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Euro bringing the turkey week potential out in pieces, thus southern sliders and not a more NW strong solution. It'd be nice to cash in early and get off to a rare good start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 The latest models have trended away from a good snow event. Instead, we get a fast zonal to nw flow that shears out any decent energy and suppresses moisture. This morning's Euro hardly has a sprinkle or flake here through ten days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 That medium range look on the ensembles are a cold but dry look that's ripe for clippers. That's a pattern we haven't seen in like 70 years. Ok, maybe that's an exaggeration but it's been a long time since we've seen a pattern like the one shown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 2 hours ago, roardog said: That medium range look on the ensembles are a cold but dry look that's ripe for clippers. That's a pattern we haven't seen in like 70 years. Ok, maybe that's an exaggeration but it's been a long time since we've seen a pattern like the one shown. in 24 hours we've gone from a spread the wealth possible T-Day Midwest/ OV event to hoping for the long rumored clipper pattern prayer? At least it's not February. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 14 minutes ago, Baum said: in 24 hours we've gone from a spread the wealth possible T-Day Midwest/ OV event to hoping for the long rumored clipper pattern prayer? At least it's not February. I'd rather have a cold and dry pattern that at least gets arctic air established in the area so that when moisture does come back you have a good chance of something wintry as opposed to the garbage in recent winters where every system is thread the needle slush balls falling from the clouds that take an hour just to start to accumulate. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Arctic air means the lakes freeze up and the ski hills can make snow. Hopefully as we get closer the hi-res models sniff out some clippers. Upcoming pattern bodes well for the winter outdoor activity industry here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 1 hour ago, roardog said: I'd rather have a cold and dry pattern that at least gets arctic air established in the area so that when moisture does come back you have a good chance of something wintry as opposed to the garbage in recent winters where every system is thread the needle slush balls falling from the clouds that take an hour just to start to accumulate. Agreed. Unfortunately, recency bias about December gives me the shakes and nightmares about a slew of stat posts by the Climate Changer. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Time to finally buck the trend of mild December’s, the last decade has been dominated by them. The T-day/Black Friday storm looks intriguing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 https://x.com/nilwxreports/status/1859741033296429412 no clue on the validity, but it sound good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22 Author Share Posted November 22 3 hours ago, roardog said: I'd rather have a cold and dry pattern that at least gets arctic air established in the area so that when moisture does come back you have a good chance of something wintry as opposed to the garbage in recent winters where every system is thread the needle slush balls falling from the clouds that take an hour just to start to accumulate. Good point. We have had some really dynamic storms in the milder winters that have produced postcard scenes but are heart attacks waiting to happen while shoveling and a waste of some snow qpf due to low ratios. A clipper pattern early in the season with arctic air and warm lakes is not a bad idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22 Author Share Posted November 22 2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Arctic air means the lakes freeze up and the ski hills can make snow. Hopefully as we get closer the hi-res models sniff out some clippers. Upcoming pattern bodes well for the winter outdoor activity industry here. Another good point. Perfect for all the ski resorts to get lots of snow made for an early base. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22 Author Share Posted November 22 2 hours ago, Baum said: Agreed. Unfortunately, recency bias about December gives me the shakes and nightmares about a slew of stat posts by the Climate Changer. He will likely lay low as he normally does during cold patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 I think full hope in the Thxgiving storm will be restored w tonight's runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I think full hope in the Thxgiving storm will be restored w tonight's runs Love the optimism. You can tell it's early in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 30 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Love the optimism. You can tell it's early in the season. True but also smooth-brained optimism is kind of my schtick because I refuse to let some clouds dictate my disposition like that. Last year cooked me though not gonna lie. Also real shit I saw the Icon had already come in with something fairly decent so I thought I'd shoot my shot 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 I’ll take the cold blast starting the weekend after Thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 GEFS ensembles hinting at the possibility of something next week but it's still all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 6 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: I’ll take the cold blast starting the weekend after Thanksgiving. Depending on the wind either you or I should be able to take advantage of the lake assuming the cold materializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 No sustained blocking. Pacific is a bit of mess. MJO going into warm phases a bit. December may start with some cold but unless something changes it will progress to mild during first half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22 Author Share Posted November 22 3 hours ago, Lightning said: No sustained blocking. Pacific is a bit of mess. MJO going into warm phases a bit. December may start with some cold but unless something changes it will progress to mild during first half of December. I'm actually pleasantly surprised how December looks to start with well below average temps. Until very recently Dec was looking mild, so this is a treat. I'll worry about mid December and beyond later. Not going to start extrapolating the 384 hr gfs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: He will likely lay low as he normally does during cold patterns. "Cold" patterns. Detroit is currently 7.2F above normal for the month. Seasonal snowfall stands at 11 percent of normal, while Flint and Saginaw are at 0 percent of normal. For the year today, it has been the hottest year on record in Detroit history, nearly a half degree warmer than 2012. And, god forbid, if City Airport was still the official observation site, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 cad days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Encouraging to see on the long range solid cold entrenching itself over WCAN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 "Cold" patterns. Detroit is currently 7.2F above normal for the month. Seasonal snowfall stands at 11 percent of normal, while Flint and Saginaw are at 0 percent of normal. For the year today, it has been the hottest year on record in Detroit history, nearly a half degree warmer than 2012. And, god forbid, if City Airport was still the official observation site, wow!lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22 Author Share Posted November 22 30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: lol LMAO. I have him blocked so i only see stuff if someone quotes him. Someone needs reading comprehension Im guessing. Apparently since 2024 has been a warm year, the cold pattern coming up cant be called a cold pattern. . Im very worried about being at 11% of avg snowfall thru November 21st though. Back in 2019, we were at 1,188% of avg snowfall as of November 21st, and that imminently led to a season of 1,188% snowfall I assume (I just have to confirm DTW saw 53,460 inches of snow in 2019-20). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Looks like we are absolutely getting the cold. Now if we can get the storm track.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I'm actually pleasantly surprised how December looks to start with well below average temps. Until very recently Dec was looking mild, so this is a treat. I'll worry about mid December and beyond later. Not going to start extrapolating the 384 hr gfs Don't take me wrong. My comments were mostly referring to the constant changes we are seeing the models. Just this 12Z run alone is a bit better overall. My point was that while are seeing variable cold runs in which there are some mild signals which I believe is causing the model variability. If the MJO ends up more around/in the COD, instead of moderate in the warm phases, that will help allow other colder signals to have more pattern power. You know I want it blistering cold with lots of LES and super-clippers!! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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