11/21-22/24 Little Something.. But first flakes for quite a few.. MAYBE

[MillvilleWx]

3 hours ago, jonjon said:

There appears to be several air bnbs available this weekend for around a hundred dollars a night in both Davis and Thomas.  If you go to the valley its much more expensive.  I recommend staying in one of the towns for events like these, the roads are cleared more and you can walk to restaurants/bars/shops and get a feel for the area.   Snowshoe would be good, too, they'll probably get a smidge more snow this go around, but the drive there is substantially further for most people.  

I told my wife I want to do that at some point this winter for a getaway. I’ll make sure to PM you when the time comes. Would love to come up there and give some small businesses my money. 

[jonjon]

20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Do you still do b and b 

No, we now live in what used to be a regular B&B [Meyer House] (until we sell it next summer for anyone looking for a giant Victorian style home).

We do air bnb the space above Stumptown Ales https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/10855680?source_impression_id=p3_1732133485_P3dH7qx9zKHZTv4D

[jonjon]

14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I told my wife I want to do that at some point this winter for a getaway. I’ll make sure to PM you when the time comes. Would love to come up there and give some small businesses my money. 

That would be wonderful!!

[TSSN+]

Where do I sign? 

[NorthArlington101]

12z NAM coming in snowier for northern/central MD. Gonna be a mini-NAMming

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z NAM coming in snowier for northern/central MD. Gonna be a mini-NAMming

[NorthArlington101]

Hello 3k NAM 

[mappy]

Happy first NAMing of the season (mostly) everyone! It’s good to be back. 

[winter_warlock]

Gfs Has a little love for central md

 

[TSSN+]

If I get over 1” Friday… 

[WxUSAF]

18z hrrrr also happy for happy hour 

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I felt a text slap to the face would reawaken you and help.

Just got back from the grocery store so I have the food all stocked up.  All that's left is Final Preps.   

[87storms]

21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hello 3k NAM 

I've seen several inches on top of the Catoctins with basically nothing at the bottom, so I believe the result of that algorithm.

[George BM]

Looks like a good number of us will record at least 'T's two days in a row. 

Tomorrow, as high risk mentioned, looks good for convective graupel showers especially during the afternoon. I wouldn't be too surprised to even see some more legit snowflakes mix in with graupel in the most intense showers given the freezing-level falling to below 900mb w/ steep LLLRs and temps only in the mid/upper 40s at the surface during the afternoon.

Friday, as has been said and shown repeatedly, looks good for flakes flying through the air as the surface low to the north loops south. 

Fun little period coming up... I guess I can also mention the gusty downpours for tonight as well w/ the cold front but I figured that most in here care more about the good white stuff.  

Let's will this low about 125 miles further southwest. 

[midatlanticweather]

9 hours ago, mappy said:

You probably need to delete some of your attachments to make space to post more. 

That was it!! Thank you 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

You getting 1” by December 1st gives us a 64.76525% chance of an acceptable winter, right?? 

Might be a little lower after last year!  Not sure how much those type indicators work anymore given the changes... but once we get to the second half of november in general yes snow in the area is a good thing v an endless blowtorch.  

[winter_warlock]

Well it's been many years since I got any measurable snow in November.  Definitely  a different  feel to this winter 

[87storms]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
138 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

ANZ538-DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-
VAZ036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527-210045-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-District of Columbia-
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-
Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northwest Prince William-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton,
Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park,
Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn,
South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf,
Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown,
Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown,
Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring,
Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen,
Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange,
Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville,
Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton,
Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair
138 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...Rapid Onset of Strong Winds Later This Evening...

A rapid onset of strong west to northwest winds will develop
between 8 and 11 PM this evening behind a strong cold front. Wind
gusts around 35 to 45 mph are most likely with a few gusts around
50 mph possible. The strong winds will be capable of blowing
around unsecured objects and isolated instances of wind damage
are possible as well. Winds will gradually diminish overnight.

 

That's certainly more believable than snow in late November from a system meandering over interior New England.

[Eskimo Joe]

In Colorado Springs until late tomorrow night. Enjoy this folks!

https://twitter.com/seckhardt/status/1859325099960304049?t=rN8bviMpfz_Q4o88yDxZLA&s=19

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, jonjon said:

No, we now live in what used to be a regular B&B [Meyer House] (until we sell it next summer for anyone looking for a giant Victorian style home).

We do air bnb the space above Stumptown Ales https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/10855680?source_impression_id=p3_1732133485_P3dH7qx9zKHZTv4D

Are you leaving that general area ?

[WEATHER53]

38 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Just got back from the grocery store so I have the food all stocked up.  All that's left is Final Preps.   

I’m glad my snap out of it was helpful 

 

All You Snow Chasers- Take pics  and vids -.  Before, during and after. Day and night.  If the weather groupies overwhelm you, please do not tarry long from your weather tasks.!!

Can I get some Ayes!

 

[stormy]

3 hours ago, katabatic said:

Going to 'shoe might be a bit of overkill, but I've always wanted to go there and am a little worried about temps. Might be worrying over nothing but last two years living here taught me otherwise when it is a marginal setup. I had a blast last winter when I chased that big Sierra storm so this will produce some of the same conditions - but on a serious diet by comparison. 

You will generally witness a 4 degree drop per 1000 ft. elevation.  My snowfall observation through the past 40 years says 3 inches per 1000 ft.. 

I have a lot of experience comparing 1800 ft. to 2800 ft .   

[jonjon]

23 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Are you leaving that general area ?

Yeah, we've only got 18 months until we're empty nesters, so we plan to move to Berlin/West OC area in Maryland where we already have a second home.  Will keep one of our homes here in Davis as a second home for snow chases and escape from the heat in summer.  I'll still get in my snow fixes lol.

[dailylurker]

18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m glad my snap out of it was helpful 

 

All You Snow Chasers- Take pics  and vids -.  Before, during and after. Day and night.  If the weather groupies overwhelm you, please do not tarry long from your weather tasks.!!

Can I get some Ayes!

 

I'm going to do a detail report from different elevations and slope directions. I'll document it with lots of pictures. I'm going to head out Friday, stay Saturday and drive back Sunday. I'm hoping to get some bluebird shots from the top of the Allegheny Front on Sunday. 

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Yeah, we've only got 18 months until we're empty nesters, so we plan to move to Berlin/West OC area in Maryland where we already have a second home.  Will keep one of our homes here in Davis as a second home for snow chases and escape from the heat in summer.  I'll still get in my snow fixes lol.

You'll get coastal scrapers and interior events. Congrats!

[clskinsfan]

49 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Yeah, we've only got 18 months until we're empty nesters, so we plan to move to Berlin/West OC area in Maryland where we already have a second home.  Will keep one of our homes here in Davis as a second home for snow chases and escape from the heat in summer.  I'll still get in my snow fixes lol.

Same plan here. And same timeframe. I am done next fall. One more year. 

[Terpeast]

If the hires nam is right, we could see some mood flakes/snow tv here. Light accums not out of the question in higher terrain east of the apps. 

[katabatic]

4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Could always rent out your house to a needy Internet stranger and pay it forward... you got good Wifi? 

Haha I'm always looking for a chase buddy. Made it to Snowshoe...let's see how this ends up. Definitely at the top of the mountain so putting my best foot forward on this one. 

[George BM]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
138 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

ANZ538-DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-
VAZ036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527-210045-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-District of Columbia-
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-
Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northwest Prince William-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton,
Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park,
Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn,
South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf,
Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown,
Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown,
Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring,
Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen,
Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange,
Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville,
Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton,
Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair
138 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...Rapid Onset of Strong Winds Later This Evening...

A rapid onset of strong west to northwest winds will develop
between 8 and 11 PM this evening behind a strong cold front. Wind
gusts around 35 to 45 mph are most likely with a few gusts around
50 mph possible. The strong winds will be capable of blowing
around unsecured objects and isolated instances of wind damage
are possible as well. Winds will gradually diminish overnight.

 

There's the Wind Advisory for tonight.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
555 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ040-053-054-501-
505-506-526-527-210600-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0018.241121T0100Z-241121T0600Z/
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St.
Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast
Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-
Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Rappahannock-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western
Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and
Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
555 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, northeast,
  northern, and southern Maryland, and northern and northwest
  Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect winds to suddenly increase this
  evening between 8 PM to 11 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

[nj2va]

Great summary by LWX:

Another disturbance embedded within the much larger upper level
low will rotate in from the north on Friday. The steadiest and
likely heaviest snow in the mountains will occur late Friday
morning through Friday evening as low-level warm advection
overlaps upslope flow intersecting the terrain. Snowfall rates
may approach an inch per hour at times Friday afternoon. The
snow on Friday will be a wetter snow as the column starts to
warm.

Some snow may also occur to the east of the mountains Friday
morning, with the first snowflakes of the year possible in the
DC and Baltimore metro areas. Temperatures will likely be too
warm for accumulations along the I-95 corridor, but some minor
accumulations may be possible along Parr`s ridge in north-
central Maryland and in the Catoctins. Any snow to the east of
the mountains should switch over to rain during the afternoon as
temperatures warm.

Precipitation will continue in the mountains through Friday
night. As temperatures continue to warm, some of the lower
elevations in the mountains may switch over to rain before
ending, but the highest elevations (above 2500 feet) should
stay all snow through the night. By the time all is said and
done, 6-12 inches is expected along and west of the Allegheny
Front, with isolated totals of 12-18 inches possible along the
highest ridgetops. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for
Garrett, western Grant, western Pendleton and western Highland
counties starting at 10 AM tomorrow. Those Warnings continue
through Friday night. A Winter Weather Advisory is also in
effect for western Mineral county from 10 AM tomorrow through 10
PM tomorrow night.